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We introduce the concept of time series motifs for time series analysis. Time series motifs consider not only the spatial information of mutual visibility but also the temporal information of relative magnitude between the data points. We study the profiles of the six triadic time series. The six motif occurrence frequencies are derived for uncorrelated time series, which are approximately linear functions of the length of the time series. The corresponding motif profile thus converges to a constant vector $(0.2,0.2,0.1,0.2,0.1,0.2)$. These analytical results have been verified by numerical simulations. For fractional Gaussian noises, numerical simulations unveil the nonlinear dependence of motif occurrence frequencies on the Hurst exponent. Applications of the time series motif analysis uncover that the motif occurrence frequency distributions are able to capture the different dynamics in the heartbeat rates of healthy subjects, congestive heart failure (CHF) subjects, and atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects and in the price fluctuations of bullish and bearish markets. Our method shows its potential power to classify different types of time series and test the time irreversibility of time series.
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It is of great significance to identify the characteristics of time series to qualify their similarity. We define six types of triadic time-series motifs and investigate the motif occurrence profiles extracted from logistic map, chaotic logistic map, chaotic Henon map, chaotic Ikeda map, hyperchaotic generalized Henon map and hyperchaotic folded-tower map. Based on the similarity of motif profiles, we further propose to estimate the similarity coefficients between different time series and classify these time series with high accuracy. We further apply the motif analysis method to the UCR Time Series Classification Archive and provide evidence of good classification ability for some data sets. Our analysis shows that the proposed triadic time series motif analysis performs better than the classic dynamic time wrapping method in classifying time series for certain data sets investigated in this work.
In friendship networks, individuals have different numbers of friends, and the closeness or intimacy between an individual and her friends is heterogeneous. Using a statistical filtering method to identify relationships about who depends on whom, we construct dependence networks (which are directed) from weighted friendship networks of avatars in more than two hundred virtual societies of a massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG). We investigate the evolution of triadic motifs in dependence networks. Several metrics show that the virtual societies evolved through a transient stage in the first two to three weeks and reached a relatively stable stage. We find that the unidirectional loop motif (${rm{M}}_9$) is underrepresented and does not appear, open motifs are also underrepresented, while other close motifs are overrepresented. We also find that, for most motifs, the overall level difference of the three avatars in the same motif is significantly lower than average, whereas the sum of ranks is only slightly larger than average. Our findings show that avatars social status plays an important role in the formation of triadic motifs.
Conventionally, pairwise relationships between nodes are considered to be the fundamental building blocks of complex networks. However, over the last decade the overabundance of certain sub-network patterns, so called motifs, has attracted high attention. It has been hypothesized, these motifs, instead of links, serve as the building blocks of network structures. Although the relation between a networks topology and the general properties of the system, such as its function, its robustness against perturbations, or its efficiency in spreading information is the central theme of network science, there is still a lack of sound generative models needed for testing the functional role of subgraph motifs. Our work aims to overcome this limitation. We employ the framework of exponential random graphs (ERGMs) to define novel models based on triadic substructures. The fact that only a small portion of triads can actually be set independently poses a challenge for the formulation of such models. To overcome this obstacle we use Steiner Triple Systems (STS). These are partitions of sets of nodes into pair-disjoint triads, which thus can be specified independently. Combining the concepts of ERGMs and STS, we suggest novel generative models capable of generating ensembles of networks with non-trivial triadic Z-score profiles. Further, we discover inevitable correlations between the abundance of triad patterns, which occur solely for statistical reasons and need to be taken into account when discussing the functional implications of motif statistics. Moreover, we calculate the degree distributions of our triadic random graphs analytically.
We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earths vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations of the detrended increments of the series reveals a pronounced change of the shapes of the probability density functions (PDF) of the series increments. Before and close to an earthquake the shape of the PDF and the long-range correlation in the increments both manifest significant changes. For a moderate or large-size earthquake the typical time at which the PDF undergoes the transition from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian is about 5-10 hours. Thus, the transition represents a new precursor for detecting such earthquakes.
To handle time series with complicated oscillatory structure, we propose a novel time-frequency (TF) analysis tool that fuses the short time Fourier transform (STFT) and periodic transform (PT). Since many time series oscillate with time-varying frequency, amplitude and non-sinusoidal oscillatory pattern, a direct application of PT or STFT might not be suitable. However, we show that by combining them in a proper way, we obtain a powerful TF analysis tool. We first combine the Ramanujan sums and $l_1$ penalization to implement the PT. We call the algorithm Ramanujan PT (RPT). The RPT is of its own interest for other applications, like analyzing short signal composed of components with integer periods, but that is not the focus of this paper. Second, the RPT is applied to modify the STFT and generate a novel TF representation of the complicated time series that faithfully reflect the instantaneous frequency information of each oscillatory components. We coin the proposed TF analysis the Ramanujan de-shape (RDS) and vectorized RDS (vRDS). In addition to showing some preliminary analysis results on complicated biomedical signals, we provide theoretical analysis about RPT. Specifically, we show that the RPT is robust to three commonly encountered noises, including envelop fluctuation, jitter and additive noise.
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