With a growing number of social apps, people have become increasingly willing to share their everyday photos and events on social media platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, and WeChat. In social media data mining, post popularity prediction has received much attention from both data scientists and psychologists. Existing research focuses more on exploring the post popularity on a population of users and including comprehensive factors such as temporal information, user connections, number of comments, and so on. However, these frameworks are not suitable for guiding a specific user to make a popular post because the attributes of this user are fixed. Therefore, previous frameworks can only answer the question whether a post is popular rather than how to become famous by popular posts. In this paper, we aim at predicting the popularity of a post for a specific user and mining the patterns behind the popularity. To this end, we first collect data from Instagram. We then design a method to figure out the user environment, representing the content that a specific user is very likely to post. Based on the relevant data, we devise a novel dual-attention model to incorporate image, caption, and user environment. The dual-attention model basically consists of two parts, explicit attention for image-caption pairs and implicit attention for user environment. A hierarchical structure is devised to concatenate the explicit attention part and implicit attention part. We conduct a series of experiments to validate the effectiveness of our model and investigate the factors that can influence the popularity. The classification results show that our model outperforms the baselines, and a statistical analysis identifies what kind of pictures or captions can help the user achieve a relatively high likes number.
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