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Register a new userGreat Expectations: Plans and Predictions for New Horizons Encounter with Kuiper Belt Object 2014 MU69 (Ultima Thule)
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The New Horizons encounter with the cold classical Kuiper Belt object (KBO) 2014 MU69 (informally named Ultima Thule, hereafter Ultima) on 1 January 2019 will be the first time a spacecraft has ever closely observed one of the free-orbiting small denizens of the Kuiper Belt. Related to but not thought to have formed in the same region of the Solar System as the comets that been explored so far, it will also be the largest, most distant, and most primitive body yet visited by spacecraft. In this letter we begin with a brief overview of cold classical KBOs, of which Ultima is a prime example. We give a short preview of our encounter plans. We note what is currently known about Ultima from earth-based observations. We then review our expectations and capabilities to evaluate Ultimas composition, surface geology, structure, near space environment, small moons, rings, and the search for activity.
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The Kuiper Belt is a distant region of the Solar System. On 1 January 2019, the New Horizons spacecraft flew close to (486958) 2014 MU69, a Cold Classical Kuiper Belt Object, a class of objects that have never been heated by the Sun and are therefore well preserved since their formation. Here we describe initial results from these encounter observations. MU69 is a bi-lobed contact binary with a flattened shape, discrete geological units, and noticeable albedo heterogeneity. However, there is little surface color and compositional heterogeneity. No evidence for satellites, ring or dust structures, gas coma, or solar wind interactions was detected. By origin MU69 appears consistent with pebble cloud collapse followed by a low velocity merger of its two lobes.
On January 1st 2019, the New Horizons spacecraft flew by the classical Kuiper belt object (486958) Arrokoth (provisionally designated 2014 MU69), possibly the most primitive object ever explored by a spacecraft. The I/F of Arrokoth is analyzed and fit with a photometric function that is a linear combination of the Lommel-Seeliger (lunar) and Lambert photometric functions. Arrokoth has a geometric albedo of p_V = 0.21_(-0.04)^(+0.05) at a wavelength of 550 nm and ~0.24 at 610 nm. Arrokoths geometric albedo is greater than the median but consistent with a distribution of cold classical Kuiper belt objects whose geometric albedos were determined by fitting a thermal model to radiometric observations. Thus, Arrokoths geometric albedo adds to the orbital and spectral evidence that it is a cold classical Kuiper belt object. Maps of the normal reflectance and hemispherical albedo of Arrokoth are presented. The normal reflectance of Arrokoths surface varies with location, ranging from ~0.10-0.40 at 610 nm with an approximately Gaussian distribution. Both Arrokoths extrema dark and extrema bright surfaces are correlated to topographic depressions. Arrokoth has a bilobate shape and the two lobes have similar normal reflectance distributions: both are approximately Gaussian, peak at ~0.25 at 610 nm, and range from ~0.10-0.40, which is consistent with co-formation and co-evolution of the two lobes. The hemispherical albedo of Arrokoth varies substantially with both incidence angle and location, the average hemispherical albedo at 610 nm is 0.063 +/- 0.015. The Bond albedo of Arrokoth at 610 nm is 0.062 +/- 0.015.
The central objective of the New Horizons prime mission was to make the first exploration of Pluto and its system of moons. Following that, New Horizons has been approved for its first extended mission, which has the objectives of extensively studying the Kuiper Belt environment, observing numerous Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) and Centaurs in unique ways, and making the first close flyby of the KBO 486958 2014 MU69. This review summarizes the objectives and plans for this approved mission extension, and briefly looks forward to potential objectives for subsequent extended missions by New Horizons.
The centerpiece objective of the NASA New Horizons first Kuiper Extended Mission (KEM-1) was the close flyby of the Kuiper Belt Object KBO) 2014 MU69, nicknamed Ultima Thule. On 1 Jan 2019 this flyby culminated, making the first close observations of a small KBO. Initial post flyby trajectory reconstruction indicated the spacecraft approached to within ~3500 km of MU69 at 5:33:19 UT. Here we summarize the earliest results obtained from that successful flyby. At the time of this submission, only 4 days of data down-link from the flyby were available; well over an order of magnitude more data will be down-linked by the time of this Lunar and Planetary Science Conference presentation in 2019 March. Therefore many additional results not available at the time of this abstract submission will be presented in this review talk.
Here we present observations of 7 large Kuiper Belt Objects. From these observations, we extract a point source catalog with $sim0.01$ precision, and astrometry of our target Kuiper Belt Objects with $0.04-0.08$ precision within that catalog. We have developed a new technique to predict the future occurrence of stellar occultations by Kuiper Belt Objects. The technique makes use of a maximum likelihood approach which determines the best-fit adjustment to cataloged orbital elements of an object. Using simulations of a theoretical object, we discuss the merits and weaknesses of this technique compared to the commonly adopted ephemeris offset approach. We demonstrate that both methods suffer from separate weaknesses, and thus, together provide a fair assessment of the true uncertainty in a particular prediction. We present occultation predictions made by both methods for the 7 tracked objects, with dates as late as 2015. Finally, we discuss observations of three separate close passages of Quaoar to field stars, which reveal the accuracy of the element adjustment approach, and which also demonstrate the necessity of considering the uncertainty in stellar position when assessing potential occultations.
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