No Arabic abstract
We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one-step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map it to the local power of a specification test of the reference model. Our approach allows for systematic sensitivity analysis when the parameter of interest may be partially or irregularly identified. As illustrations, we study three applications: an empirical analysis of the impact of conditional cash transfers in Mexico where misspecification stems from the presence of stigma effects of the program, a cross-sectional binary choice model where the error distribution is misspecified, and a dynamic panel data binary choice model where the number of time periods is small and the distribution of individual effects is misspecified.
Dynamic model averaging (DMA) combines the forecasts of a large number of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to predict the future value of a time series. The performance of DMA critically depends on the appropriate choice of two forgetting factors. The first of these controls the speed of adaptation of the coefficient vector of each DLM, while the second enables time variation in the model averaging stage. In this paper we develop a novel, adaptive dynamic model averaging (ADMA) methodology. The proposed methodology employs a stochastic optimisation algorithm that sequentially updates the forgetting factor of each DLM, and uses a state-of-the-art non-parametric model combination algorithm from the prediction with expert advice literature, which offers finite-time performance guarantees. An empirical application to quarterly UK house price data suggests that ADMA produces more accurate forecasts than the benchmark autoregressive model, as well as competing DMA specifications.
A new statistical procedure, based on a modified spline basis, is proposed to identify the linear components in the panel data model with fixed effects. Under some mild assumptions, the proposed procedure is shown to consistently estimate the underlying regression function, correctly select the linear components, and effectively conduct the statistical inference. When compared to existing methods for detection of linearity in the panel model, our approach is demonstrated to be theoretically justified as well as practically convenient. We provide a computational algorithm that implements the proposed procedure along with a path-based solution method for linearity detection, which avoids the burden of selecting the tuning parameter for the penalty term. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of our proposed procedure with detailed findings that confirm our theoretical results in the paper. Applications to Aggregate Production and Environmental Kuznets Curve data also illustrate the necessity for detecting linearity in the partially linear panel model.
Structural estimation is an important methodology in empirical economics, and a large class of structural models are estimated through the generalized method of moments (GMM). Traditionally, selection of structural models has been performed based on model fit upon estimation, which take the entire observed samples. In this paper, we propose a model selection procedure based on cross-validation (CV), which utilizes sample-splitting technique to avoid issues such as over-fitting. While CV is widely used in machine learning communities, we are the first to prove its consistency in model selection in GMM framework. Its empirical property is compared to existing methods by simulations of IV regressions and oligopoly market model. In addition, we propose the way to apply our method to Mathematical Programming of Equilibrium Constraint (MPEC) approach. Finally, we perform our method to online-retail sales data to compare dynamic market model to static model.
We develop a novel method of constructing confidence bands for nonparametric regression functions under shape constraints. This method can be implemented via a linear programming, and it is thus computationally appealing. We illustrate a usage of our proposed method with an application to the regression kink design (RKD). Econometric analyses based on the RKD often suffer from wide confidence intervals due to slow convergence rates of nonparametric derivative estimators. We demonstrate that economic models and structures motivate shape restrictions, which in turn contribute to shrinking the confidence interval for an analysis of the causal effects of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations.
We propose a unified frequency domain cross-validation (FDCV) method to obtain an HAC standard error. Our proposed method allows for model/tuning parameter selection across parametric and nonparametric spectral estimators simultaneously. Our candidate class consists of restricted maximum likelihood-based (REML) autoregressive spectral estimators and lag-weights estimators with the Parzen kernel. We provide a method for efficiently computing the REML estimators of the autoregressive models. In simulations, we demonstrate the reliability of our FDCV method compared with the popular HAC estimators of Andrews-Monahan and Newey-West. Supplementary material for the article is available online.