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Register a new userResponse of solar irradiance to sunspot area variations
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Added by
Thierry Dudok de Wit
Publication date
2018
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e. on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e. days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger and Walton (2005, GRL, 32, 14109) showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which cautions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in such a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to sunspot area.
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We analyse the time series of solar irradiance measurements using chaos theory. The False Nearest Neighbour method (FNN), one of the most common methods of chaotic analysis is used for the analysis. One year data from the weather station located at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore with a temporal resolution of $1$ minute is employed for the study. The data is sampled at $60$ minutes interval and $30$ minutes interval for the analysis using the FNN method. Our experiments revealed that the optimum dimension required for solar irradiance is $4$ for both samplings. This indicates that a minimum of $4$ dimensions is required for embedding the data for the best representation of input. This study on obtaining the embedding dimension of solar irradiance measurement will greatly assist in fixing the number of previous data required for solar irradiance forecasting.
Data gaps are ubiquitous in spectral irradiance data, and yet, little effort has been put into finding robust methods for filling them. We introduce a data-adaptive and nonparametric method that allows us to fill data gaps in multi-wavelength or in multichannel records. This method, which is based on the iterative singular value decomposition, uses the coherency between simultaneous measurements at different wavelengths (or between different proxies) to fill the missing data in a self-consistent way. The interpolation is improved by handling different time scales separately. Two major assets of this method are its simplicity, with few tuneable parameters, and its robustness. Two examples of missing data are given: one from solar EUV observations, and one from solar proxy data. The method is also appropriate for building a composite out of partly overlapping records.
Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Suns radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable the reconstruction of historical TSI. Revisions to the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial time scales according to the model reconstruction methodologies. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885 but leads to greater amplitude solar-cycle fluctuations in TSI reconstructions prior, suggesting many 18th and 19th century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and comparing that era to the present we find only very small potential differences in estimated solar contributions to climate with this new sunspot record.
Using observations of sunspot magnetic field strengths (H) from the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (CrAO) and area (S) of sunspots from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of Pulkovo Observatory, we investigate the changes in the relation between H and S over the period of about two solar cycles (1994-2013). The data were fitted by H = A + B log S, where A = (778+/-46) and B = (778+/-25). We show that the correlation between H and S varies with the phase of solar cycle, and $A$ coefficient decreases significantly after year 2001, while B coefficient does not change significantly. Furthermore, our data confirm the presence of two distinct populations in distribution of sunspots (small sunspots with weaker field strength and large sunspots with stronger field). We show that relative contribution of each component to the distribution of sunspots by their area changes with the phase of solar cycle and on longer-then-cycle periods. We interpret these changes as a signature of a long-term (centennial) variations in properties of sunspots.
The variability of the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) over the course of the 11-year solar cycle is one of the manifestations of solar magnetic activity. There is a strong evidence that the SSI variability has an effect on the Earths atmosphere. The faster rotation of the Sun in the past lead to a more vigorous action of solar dynamo and thus potentially to larger amplitude of the SSI variability on the timescale of the solar activity cycle. This could led to a stronger response of the Earths atmosphere as well as other solar system planets atmospheres to the solar activity cycle. We calculate the amplitude of the SSI and TSI variability over the course of the solar activity cycle as a function of solar age. We employ the relationship between the stellar magnetic activity and the age based on observations of solar twins. Using this relation we reconstruct solar magnetic activity and the corresponding solar disk area coverages by magnetic features (i.e. spots and faculae) over the last four billion years. These disk coverages are then used to calculate the amplitude of the solar-cycle SSI variability as a function of wavelength and solar age. Our calculations show that the young Sun was significantly more variable than the present Sun. The amplitude of the solar-cycle Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variability of the 600 Myr old Sun was about 10 times larger than that of the present Sun. Furthermore, the variability of the young Sun was spot-dominated (the Sun being brighter at the activity minimum than in the maximum), i.e. the Sun was overall brighter at activity minima than at maxima. The amplitude of the TSI variability decreased with solar age until it reached a minimum value at 2.8 Gyr. After this point, the TSI variability is faculae-dominated (the Sun is brighter at the activity maximum) and its amplitude increases with age.
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