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Register a new userImpact of astrophysics on cosmology forecasts for 21 cm surveys
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Hamsa Padmanabhan
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We use the results of previous work building a halo model formalism for the distribution of neutral hydrogen, along with experimental parameters of future radio facilities, to place forecasts on astrophysical and cosmological parameters from next generation surveys. We consider 21 cm intensity mapping surveys conducted using the BINGO, CHIME, FAST, TianLai, MeerKAT and SKA experimental configurations. We work with the 5-parameter cosmological dataset of {$Omega_m, sigma_8, h, n_s, Omega_b$} assuming a flat $Lambda$CDM model, and the astrophysical parameters {$v_{c,0}, beta$} which represent the cutoff and slope of the HI- halo mass relation. We explore (i) quantifying the effects of the astrophysics on the recovery of the cosmological parameters, (ii) the dependence of the cosmological forecasts on the details of the astrophysical parametrization, and (iii) the improvement of the constraints on probing smaller scales in the HI power spectrum. For an SKA I MID intensity mapping survey alone, probing scales up to $ell_{rm max} = 1000$, we find a factor of $1.1 - 1.3$ broadening in the constraints on $Omega_b$ and $Omega_m$, and of $2.4 - 2.6$ on $h$, $n_s$ and $sigma_8$, if we marginalize over astrophysical parameters without any priors. However, even the prior information coming from the present knowledge of the astrophysics largely alleviates this broadening. These findings do not change significantly on considering an extended HIHM relation, illustrating the robustness of the results to the choice of the astrophysical parametrization. Probing scales up to $ell_{rm max} = 2000$ improves the constraints by factors of 1.5-1.8. The forecasts improve on increasing the number of tomographic redshift bins, saturating, in many cases, with 4 - 5 redshift bins. We also forecast constraints for intensity mapping with other experiments, and draw similar conclusions.
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We forecast astrophysical and cosmological parameter constraints from synergies between 21 cm intensity mapping and wide field optical galaxy surveys (both spectroscopic and photometric) over $z sim 0-3$. We focus on the following survey combinations in this work: (i) a CHIME-like and DESI-like survey in the northern hemisphere, (ii) an LSST-like and SKA I MID-like survey and (ii) a MeerKAT-like and DES-like survey in the southern hemisphere. We work with the $Lambda$CDM cosmological model having parameters ${h, Omega_m, n_s, Omega_b, sigma_8}$, parameters $v_{c,0}$ and $beta$ representing the cutoff and slope of the HI-halo mass relation in the previously developed HI halo model framework, and a parameter $Q$ that represents the scale dependence of the optical galaxy bias. Using a Fisher forecasting framework, we explore (i) the effects of the HI and galaxy astrophysical uncertainties on the cosmological parameter constraints, assuming priors from the present knowledge of the astrophysics, (ii) the improvements on astrophysical constraints over their current priors in the three configurations considered, (ii) the tightening of the constraints on the parameters relative to the corresponding HI auto-correlation surveys alone.
Recently, the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) collaboration has produced the experiments first upper limits on the power spectrum of 21-cm fluctuations at z~8 and 10. Here, we use several independent theoretical models to infer constraints on the intergalactic medium (IGM) and galaxies during the epoch of reionization (EoR) from these limits. We find that the IGM must have been heated above the adiabatic cooling threshold by z~8, independent of uncertainties about the IGM ionization state and the nature of the radio background. Combining HERA limits with galaxy and EoR observations constrains the spin temperature of the z~8 neutral IGM to 27 K < T_S < 630 K (2.3 K < T_S < 640 K) at 68% (95%) confidence. They therefore also place a lower bound on X-ray heating, a previously unconstrained aspects of early galaxies. For example, if the CMB dominates the z~8 radio background, the new HERA limits imply that the first galaxies produced X-rays more efficiently than local ones (with soft band X-ray luminosities per star formation rate constrained to L_X/SFR = { 10^40.2, 10^41.9 } erg/s/(M_sun/yr) at 68% confidence), consistent with expectations of X-ray binaries in low-metallicity environments. The z~10 limits require even earlier heating if dark-matter interactions (e.g., through millicharges) cool down the hydrogen gas. Using a model in which an extra radio background is produced by galaxies, we rule out (at 95% confidence) the combination of high radio and low X-ray luminosities of L_{r, u}/SFR > 3.9 x 10^24 W/Hz/(M_sun/yr) and L_X/SFR<10^40 erg/s/(M_sun/yr). The new HERA upper limits neither support nor disfavor a cosmological interpretation of the recent EDGES detection. The analysis framework described here provides a foundation for the interpretation of future HERA results.
The thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect is one of the primary tools for finding and characterizing galaxy clusters. Several ground-based experiments are either underway or are being planned for mapping wide areas of the sky at $sim 150$ GHz with large-aperture telescopes. We present cosmological forecasts for a straw man tSZ survey that will observe a sky area between $200$ and $10^4$ deg$^2$ to an rms noise level between 2.8 and 20.2 $mu$K-arcmin. The probes we consider are the cluster number counts (as a function of the integrated Compton-$Y$ parameter and redshift) and their angular clustering (as a function of redshift). At fixed observing time, we find that wider surveys constrain cosmology slightly better than deeper ones due to their increased ability to detect rare high-mass clusters. In all cases, we notice that adding the clustering information does not practically improve the constraints derived from the number counts. We compare forecasts obtained by sampling the posterior distribution with the Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo method against those derived using the Fisher-matrix formalism. We find that the latter produces slightly optimistic constraints where errors are underestimated at the 10 per cent level. Most importantly, we use an analytic method to estimate the selection function of the survey and account for its response to variations of the cosmological parameters in the likelihood function. Our analysis demonstrates that neglecting this effect (as routinely done in the literature) yields artificially tighter constraints by a factor of 2.2 and 1.7 for $sigma_8$ and $Omega_mathrm{M}$, respectively.
Measurement of the spatial distribution of neutral hydrogen via the redshifted 21 cm line promises to revolutionize our knowledge of the epoch of reionization and the first galaxies, and may provide a powerful new tool for observational cosmology from redshifts 1<z<4 . In this review we discuss recent advances in our theoretical understanding of the epoch of reionization (EoR), the application of 21 cm tomography to cosmology and measurements of the dark energy equation of state after reionization, and the instrumentation and observational techniques shared by 21 cm EoR and post reionization cosmology machines. We place particular emphasis on the expected signal and observational capabilities of first generation 21 cm fluctuation instruments.
21 cm power spectrum observations have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the Epoch of Reionization and Dark Energy, but require extraordinarily precise data analysis methods to separate the cosmological signal from the astrophysical and instrumental contaminants. This analysis challenge has led to a diversity of proposed analyses, including delay spectra, imaging power spectra, m-mode analysis, and numerous others. This diversity of approach is a strength, but has also led to confusion within the community about whether insights gleaned by one group are applicable to teams working in different analysis frameworks. In this paper we show that all existing analysis proposals can be classified into two distinct families based on whether they estimate the power spectrum of the measured or reconstructed sky. This subtle difference in the statistical question posed largely determines the susceptibility of the analyses to foreground emission and calibration errors, and ultimately the science different analyses can pursue. In this paper we detail the origin of the two analysis families, categorize the analyses being actively developed, and explore their relative sensitivities to foreground contamination and calibration errors.
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