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Register a new userVisualizing the Feature Importance for Black Box Models
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In recent years, a large amount of model-agnostic methods to improve the transparency, trustability and interpretability of machine learning models have been developed. We introduce local feature importance as a local version of a recent model-agnostic global feature importance method. Based on local feature importance, we propose two visual tools: partial importance (PI) and individual conditional importance (ICI) plots which visualize how changes in a feature affect the model performance on average, as well as for individual observations. Our proposed methods are related to partial dependence (PD) and individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots, but visualize the expected (conditional) feature importance instead of the expected (conditional) prediction. Furthermore, we show that averaging ICI curves across observations yields a PI curve, and integrating the PI curve with respect to the distribution of the considered feature results in the global feature importance. Another contribution of our paper is the Shapley feature importance, which fairly distributes the overall performance of a model among the features according to the marginal contributions and which can be used to compare the feature importance across different models.
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Black-box risk scoring models permeate our lives, yet are typically proprietary or opaque. We propose Distill-and-Compare, a model distillation and comparison approach to audit such models. To gain insight into black-box models, we treat them as teachers, training transparent student models to mimic the risk scores assigned by black-box models. We compare the student model trained with distillation to a second un-distilled transparent model trained on ground-truth outcomes, and use differences between the two models to gain insight into the black-box model. Our approach can be applied in a realistic setting, without probing the black-box model API. We demonstrate the approach on four public data sets: COMPAS, Stop-and-Frisk, Chicago Police, and Lending Club. We also propose a statistical test to determine if a data set is missing key features used to train the black-box model. Our test finds that the ProPublica data is likely missing key feature(s) used in COMPAS.
Membership inference determines, given a sample and trained parameters of a machine learning model, whether the sample was part of the training set. In this paper, we derive the optimal strategy for membership inference with a few assumptions on the distribution of the parameters. We show that optimal attacks only depend on the loss function, and thus black-box attacks are as good as white-box attacks. As the optimal strategy is not tractable, we provide approximations of it leading to several inference methods, and show that existing membership inference methods are coarser approximations of this optimal strategy. Our membership attacks outperform the state of the art in various settings, ranging from a simple logistic regression to more complex architectures and datasets, such as ResNet-101 and Imagenet.
Continuous latent time series models are prevalent in Bayesian modeling; examples include the Kalman filter, dynamic collaborative filtering, or dynamic topic models. These models often benefit from structured, non mean field variational approximations that capture correlations between time steps. Black box variational inference with reparameterization gradients (BBVI) allows us to explore a rich new class of Bayesian non-conjugate latent time series models; however, a naive application of BBVI to such structured variational models would scale quadratically in the number of time steps. We describe a BBVI algorithm analogous to the forward-backward algorithm which instead scales linearly in time. It allows us to efficiently sample from the variational distribution and estimate the gradients of the ELBO. Finally, we show results on the recently proposed dynamic word embedding model, which was trained using our method.
We propose the holdout randomization test (HRT), an approach to feature selection using black box predictive models. The HRT is a specialized version of the conditional randomization test (CRT; Candes et al., 2018) that uses data splitting for feasible computation. The HRT works with any predictive model and produces a valid $p$-value for each feature. To make the HRT more practical, we propose a set of extensions to maximize power and speed up computation. In simulations, these extensions lead to greater power than a competing knockoffs-based approach, without sacrificing control of the error rate. We apply the HRT to two case studies from the scientific literature where heuristics were originally used to select important features for predictive models. The results illustrate how such heuristics can be misleading relative to principled methods like the HRT. Code is available at https://github.com/tansey/hrt.
Machine learning has proved to be very successful for making predictions in travel behavior modeling. However, most machine-learning models have complex model structures and offer little or no explanation as to how they arrive at these predictions. Interpretations about travel behavior models are essential for decision makers to understand travelers preferences and plan policy interventions accordingly. Therefore, this paper proposes to apply and extend the model distillation approach, a model-agnostic machine-learning interpretation method, to explain how a black-box travel mode choice model makes predictions for the entire population and subpopulations of interest. Model distillation aims at compressing knowledge from a complex model (teacher) into an understandable and interpretable model (student). In particular, the paper integrates model distillation with market segmentation to generate more insights by accounting for heterogeneity. Furthermore, the paper provides a comprehensive comparison of student models with the benchmark model (decision tree) and the teacher model (gradient boosting trees) to quantify the fidelity and accuracy of the students interpretations.
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