Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userCoordinating users of shared facilities via data-driven predictive assistants and game theory
116
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We study data-driven assistants that provide congestion forecasts to users of shared facilities (roads, cafeterias, etc.), to support coordination between them, and increase efficiency of such collective systems. Key questions are: (1) when and how much can (accurate) predictions help for coordination, and (2) which assistant algorithms reach optimal predictions? First we lay conceptual ground for this setting where user preferences are a priori unknown and predictions influence outcomes. Addressing (1), we establish conditions under which self-fulfilling prophecies, i.e., perfect (probabilistic) predictions of what will happen, solve the coordination problem in the game-theoretic sense of selecting a Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE). Next we prove that such prophecies exist even in large-scale settings where only aggregated statistics about users are available. This entails a new (nonatomic) BNE existence result. Addressing (2), we propose two assistant algorithms that sequentially learn from users reactions, together with optimality/convergence guarantees. We validate one of them in a large real-world experiment.
rate research
Read More
A dataset has been classified by some unknown classifier into two types of points. What were the most important factors in determining the classification outcome? In this work, we employ an axiomatic approach in order to uniquely characterize an influence measure: a function that, given a set of classified points, outputs a value for each feature corresponding to its influence in determining the classification outcome. We show that our influence measure takes on an intuitive form when the unknown classifier is linear. Finally, we employ our influence measure in order to analyze the effects of user profiling on Googles online display advertising.
In deep neural nets, lower level embedding layers account for a large portion of the total number of parameters. Tikhonov regularization, graph-based regularization, and hard parameter sharing are approaches that introduce explicit biases into training in a hope to reduce statistical complexity. Alternatively, we propose stochastically shared embeddings (SSE), a data-driven approach to regularizing embedding layers, which stochastically transitions between embeddings during stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Because SSE integrates seamlessly with existing SGD algorithms, it can be used with only minor modifications when training large scale neural networks. We develop tw
A traditional assumption in game theory is that players are opaque to one another -- if a player changes strategies, then this change in strategies does not affect the choice of other players strategies. In many situations this is an unrealistic assumption. We develop a framework for reasoning about games where the players may be translucent to one another; in particular, a player may believe that if she were to change strategies, then the other player would also change strategies. Translucent players may achieve significantly more efficient outcomes than opaque ones. Our main result is a characterization of strategies consistent with appropriate analogues of common belief of rationality. Common Counterfactual Belief of Rationality (CCBR) holds if (1) everyone is rational, (2) everyone counterfactually believes that everyone else is rational (i.e., all players i believe that everyone else would still be rational even if i were to switch strategies), (3) everyone counterfactually believes that everyone else is rational, and counterfactually believes that everyone else is rational, and so on. CCBR characterizes the set of strategies surviving iterated removal of minimax dominated strategies: a strategy $sigma_i$ is minimax dominated for i if there exists a strategy $sigma_i$ for i such that $min_{mu_{-i}} u_i(sigma_i, mu_{-i}) > max_{mu_{-i}} u_i(sigma_i, mu_{-i})$.
In 1974 E.W. Dijkstra introduced the seminal concept of self-stabilization that turned out to be one of the main approaches to fault-tolerant computing. We show here how his three solutions can be formalized and reasoned about using the concepts of game theory. We also determine the precise number of steps needed to reach self-stabilization in his first solution.
Machine learning processes, e.g. learning in games, can be viewed as non-linear dynamical systems. In general, such systems exhibit a wide spectrum of behaviors, ranging from stability/recurrence to the undesirable phenomena of chaos (or butterfly effect). Chaos captures sensitivity of round-off errors and can severely affect predictability and reproducibility of ML systems, but AI/ML communitys understanding of it remains rudimentary. It has a lot out there that await exploration. Recently, Cheung and Piliouras employed volume-expansion argument to show that Lyapunov chaos occurs in the cumulative payoff space, when some popular learning algorithms, including Multiplicative Weights Update (MWU), Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) and Optimistic MWU (OMWU), are used in several subspaces of games, e.g. zero-sum, coordination or graphical constant-sum games. It is natural to ask: can these results generalize to much broader families of games? We take on a game decomposition approach and answer the question affirmatively. Among other results, we propose a notion of matrix domination and design a linear program, and use them to characterize bimatrix games where MWU is Lyapunov chaotic almost everywhere. Such family of games has positive Lebesgue measure in the bimatrix game space, indicating that chaos is a substantial issue of learning in games. For multi-player games, we present a local equivalence of volume change between general games and graphical games, which is used to perform volume and chaos analyses of MWU and OMWU in potential games.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
