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Register a new userPrecursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data
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After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of the RTTP with the upcoming solar cycle we find a correlation between the rate of the RTTP and the time delay until the maximum of the next solar cycle. On the basis of this correlation and the known internal regularities of the sunspot number series we predict that, following a minimum in 2019, cycle 25 will peak in late 2024 at an amplitude of about 130 (in terms of smoothed monthly revised sunspot numbers). This slightly exceeds the amplitude of cycle 24 but it would still make cycle 25 a fairly weak cycle.
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The extended solar cycle 24 began in 1999 near 70 degrees latitude, similarly to cycle 23 in 1989 and cycle 22 in 1979. The extended cycle is manifested by persistent Fe XIV coronal emission appearing near 70 degrees latitude and slowly migrating towards the equator, merging with the latitudes of sunspots and active regions (the butterfly diagram) after several years. Cycle 24 began its migration at a rate 40% slower than the previous two solar cycles, thus indicating the possibility of a peculiar cycle. However, the onset of the Rush to the Poles of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission, which has been a precursor to solar maximum in recent cycles (cf. Altrock 2003), has just been identified in the northern hemisphere. Peculiarly, this Rush is leisurely, at only 50% of the rate in the previous two cycles. The properties of the current Rush to the Poles yields an estimate of 2013 or 2014 for solar maximum.
Low and mid-latitude coronal holes (CHs) observed on the Sun during the current solar activity minimum (from September 21, 2006, Carrington rotation (CR) 2048, until June 26, 2009 (CR 2084)) were analyzed using {it SOHO}/EIT and STEREO-A SECCHI EUVI data. From both the observations and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) modeling, we find that the area occupied by CHs inside a belt of $pm 40^circ$ around the solar equator is larger in the current 2007 solar minimum relative to the similar phase of the previous 1996 solar minimum. The enhanced CH area is related to a recurrent appearance of five persistent CHs, which survived during 7-27 solar rotations. Three of the CHs are of positive magnetic polarity and two are negative. The most long-lived CH was being formed during 2 days and existed for 27 rotations. This CH was associated with fast solar wind at 1 AU of approximately 620$pm 40$ km s$^{-1}$. The 3D MHD modeling for this time period shows an open field structure above this CH. We conclude that the global magnetic field of the Sun possessed a multi-pole structure during this time period. Calculation of the harmonic power spectrum of the solar magnetic field demonstrates a greater prevalence of multi-pole components over the dipole component in the 2007 solar minimum compared to the 1996 solar minimum. The unusual large separation between the dipole and multi-pole components is due to the very low magnitude of the dipole component, which is three times lower than that in the previous 1996 solar minimum.
Analysis of over 36 years of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five components of the variation of the seven measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period ~ 11 years), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods ~100 days), (c) a broad band stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (a) and (b) at time scales in the range ~0.1 - 10 years. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as thosebeing produced by NASAs Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters
This paper reviews our growing understanding of the physics behind coronal heating (in open-field regions) and the acceleration of the solar wind. Many new insights have come from the last solar cycles worth of observations and theoretical work. Measurements of the plasma properties in the extended corona, where the primary solar wind acceleration occurs, have been key to discriminating between competing theories. We describe how UVCS/SOHO measurements of coronal holes and streamers over the last 14 years have provided clues about the detailed kinetic processes that energize both fast and slow wind regions. We also present a brief survey of current ideas involving the coronal source regions of fast and slow wind streams, and how these change over the solar cycle. These source regions are discussed in the context of recent theoretical models (based on Alfven waves and MHD turbulence) that have begun to successfully predict both the heating and acceleration in fast and slow wind regions with essentially no free parameters. Some new results regarding these models - including a quantitative prediction of the lower density and temperature at 1 AU seen during the present solar minimum in comparison to the prior minimum - are also shown.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) contributes to the perturbation of solar wind in the heliosphere. Thus, depending on the different phases of the solar cycle and the rate of CME occurrence, contribution of CMEs to solar wind parameters near the Earth changes. In the present study, we examine the long term occurrence rate of CMEs, their speeds, angular widths and masses. We attempt to find correlation between near sun parameters, determined using white light images from coronagraphs, with solar wind measurements near the Earth from in-situ instruments. Importantly, we attempt to find what fraction of the averaged solar wind mass near the Earth is provided by the CMEs during different phases of the solar cycles.
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