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Register a new userScalable backpropagation for Gaussian Processes using celerite
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Added by
Daniel Foreman-Mackey
Publication date
2018
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
Authors
Daniel Foreman-Mackey
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This research note presents a derivation and implementation of efficient and scalable gradient computations using the celerite algorithm for Gaussian Process (GP) modeling. The algorithms are derived in a reverse accumulation or backpropagation framework and they can be easily integrated into existing automatic differentiation frameworks to provide a scalable method for evaluating the gradients of the GP likelihood with respect to all input parameters. The algorithm derived in this note uses less memory and is more efficient th
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Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a gold standard for performance in online settings, such as sample-efficient control and black box optimization, where we need to update a posterior distribution as we acquire data in a sequential fashion. However, updating a GP posterior to accommodate even a single new observation after having observed $n$ points incurs at least $O(n)$ computations in the exact setting. We show how to use structured kernel interpolation to efficiently recycle computations for constant-time $O(1)$ online updates with respect to the number of points $n$, while retaining exact inference. We demonstrate the promise of our approach in a range of online regression and classification settings, Bayesian optimization, and active sampling to reduce error in malaria incidence forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/wjmaddox/online_gp.
We present a scalable Gaussian process model for identifying and characterizing smooth multidimensional changepoints, and automatically learning changes in expressive covariance structure. We use Random Kitchen Sink features to flexibly define a change surface in combination with expressive spectral mixture kernels to capture the complex statistical structure. Finally, through the use of novel methods for additive non-separable kernels, we can scale the model to large datasets. We demonstrate the model on numerical and real world data, including a large spatio-temporal disease dataset where we identify previously unknown heterogeneous changes in space and time.
For a learning task, Gaussian process (GP) is interested in learning the statistical relationship between inputs and outputs, since it offers not only the prediction mean but also the associated variability. The vanilla GP however struggles to learn complicated distribution with the property of, e.g., heteroscedastic noise, multi-modality and non-stationarity, from massive data due to the Gaussian marginal and the cubic complexity. To this end, this article studies new scalable GP paradigms including the non-stationary heteroscedastic GP, the mixture of GPs and the latent GP, which introduce additional latent variables to modulate the outputs or inputs in order to learn richer, non-Gaussian statistical representation. We further resort to different variational inference strategies to arrive at analytical or tighter evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) of the marginal likelihood for efficient and effective model training. Extensive numerical experiments against state-of-the-art GP and neural network (NN) counterparts on various tasks verify the superiority of these scalable modulated GPs, especially the scalable latent GP, for learning diverse data distributions.
Kernel methods on discrete domains have shown great promise for many challenging data types, for instance, biological sequence data and molecular structure data. Scalable kernel methods like Support Vector Machines may offer good predictive performances but do not intrinsically provide uncertainty estimates. In contrast, probabilistic kernel methods like Gaussian Processes offer uncertainty estimates in addition to good predictive performance but fall short in terms of scalability. While the scalability of Gaussian processes can be improved using sparse inducing point approximations, the selection of these inducing points remains challenging. We explore different techniques for selecting inducing points on discrete domains, including greedy selection, determinantal point processes, and simulated annealing. We find that simulated annealing, which can select inducing points that are not in the training set, can perform competitively with support vector machines and full Gaussian processes on synthetic data, as well as on challenging real-world DNA sequence data.
Automating statistical modelling is a challenging problem in artificial intelligence. The Automatic Statistician takes a first step in this direction, by employing a kernel search algorithm with Gaussian Processes (GP) to provide interpretable statistical models for regression problems. However this does not scale due to its $O(N^3)$ running time for the model selection. We propose Scalable Kernel Composition (SKC), a scalable kernel search algorithm that extends the Automatic Statistician to bigger data sets. In doing so, we derive a cheap upper bound on the GP marginal likelihood that sandwiches the marginal likelihood with the variational lower bound . We show that the upper bound is significantly tighter than the lower bound and thus useful for model selection.
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