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The Letter presents a novel way to connect random walks, stochastic differential equations, and evolutionary game theory. We introduce a new concept of potential function for discrete-space stochastic systems. It is based on a correspondence between one-dimensional stochastic differential equations and random walks, which may be exact not only in the continuous limit but also in finite-state spaces. Our method is useful for computation of fixation probabilities in discrete stochastic dynamical systems with two absorbing states. We apply it to evolutionary games, formulating two simple and intuitive criteria for evolutionary stability of pure Nash equilibria in finite populations. In particular, we show that the $1/3$ law of evolutionary games, introduced by Nowak et al [Nature, 2004], follows from a more general mean-potential law.
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How cooperation can evolve between players is an unsolved problem of biology. Here we use Hamiltonian dynamics of models of the Ising type to describe populations of cooperating and defecting players to show that the equilibrium fraction of cooperators is given by the expectation value of a thermal observable akin to a magnetization. We apply the formalism to the Public Goods game with three players, and show that a phase transition between cooperation and defection occurs that is equivalent to a transition in one-dimensional Ising crystals with long-range interactions. We then investigate the effect of punishment on cooperation and find that punishment plays the role of a magnetic field that leads to an alignment between players, thus encouraging cooperation. We suggest that a thermal Hamiltonian picture of the evolution of cooperation can generate other insights about the dynamics of evolving groups by mining the rich literature of critical dynamics in low-dimensional spin systems.
We study the stochastic dynamics of evolutionary games, and focus on the so-called `stochastic slowdown effect, previously observed in (Altrock et. al, 2010) for simple evolutionary dynamics. Slowdown here refers to the fact that a beneficial mutation may take longer to fixate than a neutral one. More precisely, the fixation time conditioned on the mutant taking over can show a maximum at intermediate selection strength. We show that this phenomenon is present in the prisoners dilemma, and also discuss counterintuitive slowdown and speedup in coexistence games. In order to establish the microscopic origins of these phenomena, we calculate the average sojourn times. This allows us to identify the transient states which contribute most to the slowdown effect, and enables us to provide an understanding of slowdown in the takeover of a small group of cooperators by defectors: Defection spreads quickly initially, but the final steps to takeover can be delayed substantially. The analysis of coexistence games reveals even more intricate behavior. In small populations, the conditional average fixation time can show multiple extrema as a function of the selection strength, e.g., slowdown, speedup, and slowdown again. We classify two-player games with respect to the possibility to observe non-monotonic behavior of the conditional average fixation time as a function of selection strength.
Darwinian evolution can be modeled in general terms as a flow in the space of fitness (i.e. reproductive rate) distributions. In the diffusion approximation, Tsimring et al. have showed that this flow admits fitness wave solutions: Gaussian-shape fitness distributions moving towards higher fitness values at constant speed. Here we show more generally that evolving fitness distributions are attracted to a one-parameter family of distributions with a fixed parabolic relationship between skewness and kurtosis. Unlike fitness waves, this statistical pattern encompasses both positive and negative (a.k.a. purifying) selection and is not restricted to rapidly adapting populations. Moreover we find that the mean fitness of a population under the selection of pre-existing variation is a power-law function of time, as observed in microbiological evolution experiments but at variance with fitness wave theory. At the conceptual level, our results can be viewed as the resolution of the dynamic insufficiency of Fishers fundamental theorem of natural selection. Our predictions are in good agreement with numerical simulations.
Population structure induced by both spatial embedding and more general networks of interaction, such as model social networks, have been shown to have a fundamental effect on the dynamics and outcome of evolutionary games. These effects have, however, proved to be sensitive to the details of the underlying topology and dynamics. Here we introduce a minimal population structure that is described by two distinct hierarchical levels of interaction. We believe this model is able to identify effects of spatial structure that do not depend on the details of the topology. We derive the dynamics governing the evolution of a system starting from fundamental individual level stochastic processes through two successive meanfield approximations. In our model of population structure the topology of interactions is described by only two parameters: the effective population size at the local scale and the relative strength of local dynamics to global mixing. We demonstrate, for example, the existence of a continuous transition leading to the dominance of cooperation in populations with hierarchical levels of unstructured mixing as the benefit to cost ratio becomes smaller then the local population size. Applying our model of spatial structure to the repeated prisoners dilemma we uncover a novel and counterintuitive mechanism by which the constant influx of defectors sustains cooperation. Further exploring the phase space of the repeated prisoners dilemma and also of the rock-paper-scissor game we find indications of rich structure and are able to reproduce several effects observed in other models with explicit spatial embedding, such as the maintenance of biodiversity and the emergence of global oscillations.
We propose a mathematical model for collective sensing in a population growing in a stochastically varying environment. In the population, individuals use an information channel for sensing the environment, and two channels for signal production and comprehension to communicate among themselves. We show that existence of such system has a positive effect on population growth, hence can have a positive evolutionary effect. We show that the gain in growth due to the collective sensing is related to information theoretic entities, which can be considered as the information content of this system from the environment. We further show that heterogeneity in communication resulted from network or spatial structure increases growth. We compute the growth rate of a population residing on a lattice and show that growth rate near the maximum noise level in observation or communication, increases exponentially as noise decreases. This exponential effect makes the emergence of collective observation an easy outcome in an evolutionary process. Furthermore, we are able to quantify interesting effects such as accelerated growth, and simplification of decision making due to information amplification by communication. Finally, we show that an amount of noise in representation formation has more disadvantageous effect compared to the same noise in signal production.
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