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Register a new userA Probabilistic Approach to the Drag-Based Model
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The forecast of the time of arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. We propose a statistical approach for the computation of the time of arrival using the drag-based model by introducing the probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, and obtain extremely promising results: the average value of the absolute differences between measure and forecast is 9.1h, and half of these residuals are within the estimated errors. These results suggest that this approach deserves further investigation. We are working to realize a real-time implementation which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to create a database of events useful for a further validation of the approach.
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There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]
In the present paper, we investigate the power-law behaviour of the magnetic field spectra in the Earths magnetosheath region using Cluster spacecraft data under solar minimum condition. The power spectral density of the magnetic field data and spectral slopes at various frequencies are analysed. Propagation angle and compressibility are used to test the nature of turbulent fluctuations. The magnetic field spectra have the spectral slopes between -1.5 to 0 down to spatial scales of 20 ion gyroradius and show clear evidence of a transition to steeper spectra for small scales with a second power-law, having slopes between -2.6 to -1.8. At low frequencies, f_sc<0.3f_ci(where f_ci is ion gyro-frequency), propagation angle approximately 90 degrees to the mean magnetic field, B_0, and compressibility shows a broad distribution, 0.1 < R > 0.9. On the other hand at f_sc>10f_ci, the propagation angle exhibits a broad range between 30-90 degree while R has a small variation: 0.2 < R > 0.5. We conjecture that at high frequencies, the perpendicularly propagating Alfven waves could partly explain the statistical analysis of spectra. To support our prediction of kinetic Alfven wave-dominated spectral slope behaviour at high frequency, we also present a theoretical model and simulate the magnetic field turbulence spectra due to the nonlinear evolution of kinetic Alfven waves. The present study also shows the analogy between the observational and simulated spectra.
Pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, Miras, and RR Lyrae stars, are important distance indicators and calibrators of the cosmic distance ladder, and yet their period-luminosity-metallicity (PLZ) relations are still constrained using simple statistical methods that cannot take full advantage of available data. To enable optimal usage of data provided by the Gaia mission, we present a probabilistic approach that simultaneously constrains parameters of PLZ relations and uncertainties in Gaia parallax measurements. We demonstrate this approach by constraining PLZ relations of type $ab$ RR Lyrae stars in near-infrared W1 and W2 bands, using Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) parallax measurements for a sample of $approx100$ type $ab$ RR Lyrae stars located within 2.5 kpc of the Sun. The fitted PLZ relations are consistent with previous studies, and in combination with other data, deliver distances precise to 6% (once various sources of uncertainty are taken into account). To a precision of 0.05 mas ($1sigma$), we do not find a statistically significant offset in TGAS parallaxes for this sample of distant RR Lyrae stars (median parallax of 0.8 mas and distance of 1.4 kpc). With only minor modifications, our probabilistic approach can be used to constrain PLZ relations of other pulsating stars, and we intend to apply it to Cepheid and Mira stars in the near future.
The Carrington storm (September 1/2, 1859) is one of the largest magnetic storms ever observed and it has caused global auroral displays in low-latitude areas, together with a series of multiple magnetic storms during August 28 and September 4, 1859. In this study, we revisit contemporary auroral observation records to extract information on their elevation angle, color, and direction to investigate this stormy interval in detail. We first examine their equatorward boundary of auroral emission with multiple colors based on descriptions of elevation angle and color. We find that their locations were 36.5 deg ILAT on August 28/29 and 32.7 deg ILAT on September 1/2, suggesting that trapped electrons moved to, at least, L~1.55 and L~1.41, respectively. The equatorward boundary of purely red emission was likely located at 30.8 deg ILAT on September 1/2. If purely red emission was a stable auroral red arc, it would suggest that trapped protons moved to, at least, L~1.36. This reconstruction with observed auroral emission regions provides conservative estimations of magnetic storm intensities. We compare the auroral records with magnetic observations. We confirm that multiple magnetic storms occurred during this stormy interval, and that the equatorward expansion of the auroral oval is consistent with the timing of magnetic disturbances. It is possible that the August 28/29 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) cleared out the interplanetary medium, making the ICMEs for the Carrington storm on September 1/2 more geoeffective.
Magnetic reconnection (MR) and the associated concurrently occurring waves have been extensively studied at large-scale plasma boundaries, in quasi-symmetric and asymmetric configurations in the terrestrial magnetotail and at the magnetopause. Recent high-resolution observations by MMS (Magnetospheric Multiscale) spacecraft indicate that MR can occur also in the magnetosheath where the conditions are highly turbulent when the upstream shock geometry is quasi-parallel. The strong turbulent motions make the boundary conditions for evolving MR complicated. In this paper it is demonstrated that the wave observations in localized regions of MR can serve as an additional diagnostic tool reinforcing our capacity for identifying MR events in turbulent plasmas. It is shown that in a close resemblance with MR at large-scale boundaries, turbulent reconnection associated whistler waves occur at separatrix/outflow regions and at the outer boundary of the electron diffusion region, while lower hybrid drift waves are associated with density gradients during the crossing of the current sheet. The lower hybrid drift instability can make the density inhomogeneities rippled. The identification of MR associated waves in the magnetosheath represents also an important milestone for developing a better understanding of energy redistribution and dissipation in turbulent plasmas.
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