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Register a new userPeering beyond the horizon with standard sirens and redshift drift
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Raul Jimenez
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An interesting test on the nature of the Universe is to measure the global spatial curvature of the metric in a model independent way, at a level of $|Omega_k|<10^{-4}$, or, if possible, at the cosmic variance level of the amplitude of the CMB fluctuations $|Omega_k|approx10^{-5}$. A limit of $|Omega_k|<10^{-4}$ would yield stringent tests on several models of inflation. Further, improving the constraint by an order of magnitude would help in reducing model confusion in standard parameter estimation. Moreover, if the curvature is measured to be at the value of the amplitude of the CMB fluctuations, it would offer a powerful test on the inflationary paradigm and would indicate that our Universe must be significantly larger than the current horizon. On the contrary, in the context of standard inflation, measuring a value above CMB fluctuations will lead us to conclude that the Universe is not much larger than the current observed horizon, this can also be interpreted as the presence of large fluctuations outside the horizon. However, it has proven difficult, so far, to find observables that can achieve such level of accuracy, and, most of all, be model-independent. Here we propose a method that can in principle achieve that, this is done by making minimal assumptions and using distance probes that are cosmology-independent: gravitational waves, redshift drift and cosmic chronometers. We discuss what kind of observations are needed in principle to achieve the desired accuracy.
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Gravitational waves (GWs) directly measure the luminosity distance to the merger, which, when combined with an independent measurement of the sources redshift, provides a novel probe of cosmology. The proposed next generation of ground-based GW detectors, Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer, will detect tens of thousands of binary neutron stars (BNSs) out to cosmological distances ($z>2$), beyond the peak of the star formation rate (SFR), or cosmic noon. At these distances, it will be challenging to measure the sources redshifts by observing electromagnetic (EM) counterparts or statistically marginalizing over a galaxy catalog. In the absence of an EM counterpart or galaxy catalog, Ding et al. showed that theoretical priors on the merger redshift distribution can be used to infer parameters in a $w$CDM cosmology. We argue that in the BNS case, the redshift distribution will be measured by independent observations of short gamma ray bursts (GRBs), kilonovae, and known BNS host galaxies. We show that, in addition to measuring the background cosmology, this method can constrain the effects of dark energy on modified GW propagation. We consider the simple case in which the BNS rate is textit{a priori} known to follow the SFR. If the SFR is perfectly known, $mathcal{O}(10,000)$ events (to be expected within a year of observation with Cosmic Explorer) would yield a sub-tenth percent measurement of the combination $H_0^{2.8}Omega_M$. Fixing $H_0$ and $Omega_M$, this method may enable a 5% measurement of the dark energy equation of state parameter. Fixing the background cosmology and probing modified GW propagation, the running of the Planck mass parameter $c_M$ may be measured to $pm0.02$. Although realistically, the redshift evolution of the merger rate will be uncertain, prior knowledge of the peak redshift will provide valuable information for standard siren analyses.
Quasars have recently been used as an absolute distance indicator, extending the Hubble diagram to high redshift to reveal a deviation from the expansion history predicted for the standard, $Lambda$CDM cosmology. Here we show that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will efficiently test this claim with standard sirens at high redshift, defined by the coincident gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations of the merger of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Assuming a fiducial $Lambda$CDM cosmology for generating mock standard siren datasets, the evidence for the $Lambda$CDM model with respect to an alternative model inferred from quasar data is investigated. By simulating many realizations of possible future LISA observations, we find that for $50%$ of these realizations (median result) 4 MBHB standard siren measurements will suffice to strongly differentiate between the two models, while 14 standard sirens will yield a similar result in $95%$ of the realizations. In addition, we investigate the measurement precision of cosmological parameters as a function of the number of observed LISA MBHB standard sirens, finding that 15 events will on average achieve a relative precision of 5% for $H_0$, reducing to 3% and 2% with 25 and 40 events, respectively. Our investigation clearly highlights the potential of LISA as a cosmological probe able to accurately map the expansion of the universe at $zgtrsim 2$, and as a tool to cross-check and cross-validate cosmological EM measurements with complementary GW observations.
Modifications of General Relativity leave their imprint both on the cosmic expansion history through a non-trivial dark energy equation of state, and on the evolution of cosmological perturbations in the scalar and in the tensor sectors. In particular, the modification in the tensor sector gives rise to a notion of gravitational-wave (GW) luminosity distance, different from the standard electromagnetic luminosity distance, that can be studied with standard sirens at GW detectors such as LISA or third-generation ground based experiments. We discuss the predictions for modified GW propagation from some of the best studied theories of modified gravity, such as Horndeski or the more general degenerate higher order scalar-tensor (DHOST) theories, non-local infrared modifications of gravity, bigravity theories and the corresponding phenomenon of GW oscillation, as well as theories with extra or varying dimensions. We show that modified GW propagation is a completely generic phenomenon in modified gravity. We then use a simple parametrization of the effect in terms of two parameters $(Xi_0,n)$, that is shown to fit well the results from a large class of models, to study the prospects of observing modified GW propagation using supermassive black hole binaries as standard sirens with LISA. We construct mock source catalogs and perform detailed Markov Chain Monte Carlo studies of the likelihood obtained from LISA standard sirens alone, as well as by combining them with CMB, BAO and SNe data to reduce the degeneracies between cosmological parameters. We find that the combination of LISA with the other cosmological datasets allows one to measure the parameter $Xi_0$ that characterizes modified GW propagation to the percent level accuracy, sufficient to test several modified gravity theories. [Abridged]
We study the holographic dark energy (HDE) model by using the future gravitational wave (GW) standard siren data observed from the Einstein Telescope (ET) in this work. We simulate 1000 GW standard siren data based on a 10-year observation of the ET to make this analysis. We find that all the cosmological parameters in the HDE model can be tremendously improved by including the GW standard siren data in the cosmological fit. The GW data combined with the current cosmic microwave background anisotropies, baryon acoustic oscillations, and type Ia supernovae data will measure the cosmological parameters $Omega_{rm m}$, $H_0$, and $c$ in the HDE model to be at the accuracies of 1.28%, 0.59%, and 3.69%, respectively. A comparison with the cosmological constant model and the constant-$w$ dark energy model shows that, compared to the standard model, the parameter degeneracies will be broken more thoroughly in a dynamical dark energy model. We find that the GW data alone can provide a fairly good measurement for $H_0$, but for other cosmological parameters the GW data alone can only provide rather weak measurements. However, due to the fact that the parameter degeneracies can be broken by the GW data, the standard sirens can play an essential role in improving the parameter estimation.
The purpose of this work is to investigate the prospects of using the future standard siren data without redshift measurements to constrain cosmological parameters. With successful detections of gravitational wave (GW) signals an era of GW astronomy has begun. Unlike the electromagnetic domain, GW signals allow direct measurements of luminosity distances to the sources, while their redshifts remain to be measured by identifying electromagnetic counterparts. This leads to significant technical problems for almost all possible BH-BH systems. It is the major obstacle to cosmological applications of GW standard sirens. In this paper, we introduce the general framework of using luminosity distances alone for cosmological inference. The idea is to use the prior knowledge of the redshift probability distribution for coalescing sources from the intrinsic merger rates assessed with population synthesis codes. Then the posterior probability distributions for cosmological parameters can be calculated. We demonstrate the performance of our method on the simulated mock data and show that the luminosity distance measurement would enable an accurate determination of cosmological parameters up to $20%$ uncertainty level. We also find that in order to infer $H_0$ to 1% level with flat $Lambda$CDM model, we need about $10^5$ events.
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