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Register a new userIntegrating Specialized Classifiers Based on Continuous Time Markov Chain
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Zhizhong Li
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Specialized classifiers, namely those dedicated to a subset of classes, are often adopted in real-world recognition systems. However, integrating such classifiers is nontrivial. Existing methods, e.g. weighted average, usually implicitly assume that all constituents of an ensemble cover the same set of classes. Such methods can produce misleading predictions when used to combine specialized classifiers. This work explores a novel approach. Instead of combining predictions from individual classifiers directly, it first decomposes the predictions into sets of pairwise preferences, treating them as transition channels between classes, and thereon constructs a continuous-time Markov chain, and use the equilibrium distribution of this chain as the final prediction. This way allows us to form a coherent picture over all specialized predictions. On large public datasets, the proposed method obtains considerable improvement compared to mainstream ensemble methods, especially when the classifier coverage is highly unbalanced.
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Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models computationally tractable, they rely on a number of assumptions that may not be realistic for the domain of application; in particular, the ability to provide exact numerical parameter assessments, and the applicability of time-homogeneity and the eponymous Markov property. In this work, we extend these models to imprecise continuous-time Markov chains (ICTMCs), which are a robust generalisation that relaxes these assumptions while remaining computationally tractable. More technically, an ICTMC is a set of precise continuous-time finite-state stochastic processes, and rather than computing expected values of functions, we seek to compute lower expectations, which are tight lower bounds on the expectations that correspond to such a set of precise models. Note that, in contrast to e.g. Bayesian methods, all the elements of such a set are treated on equal grounds; we do not consider a distribution over this set. The first part of this paper develops a formalism for describing continuous-time finite-state stochastic processes that does not require the aforementioned simplifying assumptions. Next, this formalism is used to characterise ICTMCs and to investigate their properties. The concept of lower expectation is then given an alternative operator-theoretic characterisation, by means of a lower transition operator, and the properties of this operator are investigated as well. Finally, we use this lower transition operator to derive tractable algorithms (with polynomial runtime complexity w.r.t. the maximum numerical error) for computing the lower expectation of functions that depend on the state at any finite number of time points.
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