Arctic Sea Ice and the Mean Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere


Abstract in English

The importance of snow cover and ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere was recognized by various authors leading to a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. In fact, the retreat of Arctic sea ice is accompanied by enhanced solar input in the Arctic region, i.e. a decrease of the terrestrial albedo. We have studied this effect for the past six decades and estimate the corresponding global warming in the northern hemisphere. A simple 1-dimensional model is used that includes the simultaneous increase of the greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that the latter directly cause a temperature rise of only 0.2 K in 1955 to 2015, while a notably larger effect 0.7 +/- 0.2 K is found for the loss of Arctic sea ice in the same time. These numbers comprise most of the reported mean temperature rise of 1.2 +/- 0.2 K of the northern hemisphere. The origin of the sea-ice retreat is discussed, e.g. internal variability or feedback by the CO2 concentration increase. Our data also suggest a delayed response of the global surface temperature rise to the loss of sea ice with a time constant of approximately 10 to 20 years.

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