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We build simple computational models of belief dynamics within the framework of discrete-spin statistical physics models, and explore how suitable they are for understanding and predicting real-world belief change on both the individual and group levels. We find that accurate modeling of real-world patterns requires attending to social interaction rules that people use, network structures in which they are embedded, distributions of initial beliefs and intrinsic preferences, and the relative importance of social information and intrinsic preferences. We demonstrate that these model parameters can be constrained by empirical measurement, and the resulting models can be used to investigate the mechanisms underlying belief dynamics in actual societies. We use data from two longitudinal studies of belief change, one on 80~individuals living in an MIT dorm during the 2008 presidential election season, and another on 94~participants recruited from Mechanical Turk during the 2016 presidential election primary season. We find that simple statistical physics-based models contain predictive value for real-world belief dynamics and enable empirical tests of different assumptions about the underlying network structure and the social interaction rules.
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Statistical physics has proven to be a very fruitful framework to describe phenomena outside the realm of traditional physics. The last years have witnessed the attempt by physicists to study collective phenomena emerging from the interactions of individuals as elementary units in social structures. Here we review the state of the art by focusing on a wide list of topics ranging from opinion, cultural and language dynamics to crowd behavior, hierarchy formation, human dynamics, social spreading. We highlight the connections between these problems and other, more traditional, topics of statistical physics. We also emphasize the comparison of model results with empirical data from social systems.
Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises, global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to, and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on models employing both peer interaction and external information, and emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in driving the opinion dynamics. [...]
This paper is to analyze the properties of evolving bipartite networks from four aspects, the growth of networks, the degree distribution, the popularity of objects and the diversity of user behaviours, leading a deep understanding on the empirical data. By empirical studies of data from the online bookstore Amazon and a question and answer site Stack Overflow, which are both rating bipartite networks, we could reveal the rules for the evolution of bipartite networks. These rules have significant meanings in practice for maintaining the operation of real systems and preparing for their future development. We find that the degree distribution of users follows a power law with an exponential cutoff. Also, according to the evolution of popularity for objects, we find that the large-degree objects tend to receive more new ratings than expected depending on their current degrees while the small-degree objects receive less ratings in terms of their degrees. Moreover, the user behaviours show such a trend that the larger degree the users have, the stronger purposes are with their behaviours except the initial periods when users choose a diversity of products to learn about what they want. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on how the bipartite network evolves, which provides guideline for meeting challenges brought by the growth of network.
We provide a general framework to model the growth of networks consisting of different coupled layers. Our aim is to estimate the impact of one such layer on the dynamics of the others. As an application, we study a scientometric network, where one layer consists of publications as nodes and citations as links, whereas the second layer represents the authors. This allows to address the question how characteristics of authors, such as their number of publications or number of previous co-authors, impacts the citation dynamics of a new publication. To test different hypotheses about this impact, our model combines citation constituents and social constituents in different ways. We then evaluate their performance in reproducing the citation dynamics in nine different physics journals. For this, we develop a general method for statistical parameter estimation and model selection that is applicable to growing multi-layer networks. It takes both the parameter errors and the model complexity into account and is computationally efficient and scalable to large networks.
This manuscript serves as an online supplement of a preprint, which presents a study on a kind of bilayer networks where some nodes (called interconnecting nodes) in two layers merge. A model showing an important general property of the bilayer networks is proposed. Then the analytic discussion of the model is compared with empirical conclusions. We present all the empirical observations in this online supplement.
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