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Register a new userQuantifying gerrymandering using the vote distribution
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Authors
Gregory S. Warrington
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To assess the presence of gerrymandering, one can consider the shapes of districts or the distribution of votes. The efficiency gap, which does the latter, plays a central role in a 2016 federal court case on the constitutionality of Wisconsins state legislative district plan. Unfortunately, however, the efficiency gap reduces to proportional representation, an expectation that is not a constitutional right. We present a new measure of partisan asymmetry that does not rely on the shapes of districts, is simple to compute, is provably related to the packing and cracking integral to gerrymandering, and that avoids the constitutionality issue presented by the efficiency gap. In addition, we introduce a generalization of the efficiency gap that also avoids the equivalency to proportional representation. We apply the first function to US congressional and state legislative plans from recent decades to identify candidate gerrymanders.
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Using the recently introduced declination function, we estimate the net number of seats won in the US House of Representatives due to asymmetries in vote distributions. Such asymmetries can arise from combinations of partisan gerrymandering and inherent geographic advantage. Our estimates show significant biases in favor of the Democrats prior to the mid 1990s and significant biases in favor of Republicans since then. We find net differences of 28, 20 and 25 seats in favor of the Republicans in the years 2012, 2014 and 2016, respectively. The validity of our results is supported by the technique of simulated packing and cracking. We also use this technique to show that the presidential-vote logistic regression model is insensitive to the packing and cracking by which partisan gerrymanders are achieved.
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