No Arabic abstract
We present a proof of principle for the phenomenon of the tragedy of the commons that is at the center of many theories on the evolution of cooperation. We establish the tragedy in the context of a general chemostat model with two species, the cooperator and the cheater. Both species have the same growth rate function and yield constant, but the cooperator allocates a portion of the nutrient uptake towards the production of a public good -the Commons in the Tragedy- which is needed to digest the externally supplied nutrient. The cheater on the other hand does not produce this enzyme, and allocates all nutrient uptake towards its own growth. We prove that when the cheater is present initially, both the cooperator and the cheater will eventually go extinct, hereby confirming the occurrence of the tragedy. We also show that without the cheater, the cooperator can survive indefinitely, provided that at least a low level of public good or processed nutrient is available initially. Our results provide a predictive framework for the analysis of cooperator-cheater dynamics in a powerful model system of experimental evolution.
A tragedy of the commons (TOC) occurs when individuals acting in their own self-interest deplete commonly-held resources, leading to a worse outcome than had they cooperated. Over time, the depletion of resources can change incentives for subsequent actions. Here, we investigate long-term feedback between game and environment across a continuum of incentives in an individual-based framework. We identify payoff-dependent transition rules that lead to oscillatory TOC-s in stochastic simulations and the mean field limit. Further extending the stochastic model, we find that spatially explicit interactions can lead to emergent, localized dynamics, including the propagation of cooperative wave fronts and cluster formation of both social context and resources. These dynamics suggest new mechanisms underlying how TOCs arise and how they might be averted.
We revisit the well-known chemostat model, considering that bacteria can be attached together in aggregates or flocs. We distinguish explicitly free and attached compartments in the model and give sufficient conditions for coexistence of these two forms. We then study the case of fast attachment and detachment and shows how it is related to density-dependent growth functions. Finally, we give some insights concerning the cases of multi-specific flocs and different removal rates.
Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported number of infected cases for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 33 countries and regions that have been or are undergoing major outbreaks. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. We quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some instructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience of China, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in other countries. We identified that outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in western Europe) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in several among them. The modeling results clearly show longer after-peak trajectories in western countries, in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peak trajectory is characterized by a much faster decay. We identified three groups of countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informative implications for the current global pandemic.
In a previous article [1] we have described the temporal evolution of the Sars- Cov-2 in Italy in the time window February 24-April 1. As we can see in [1] a generalized logistic equation captures both the peaks of the total infected and the deaths. In this article our goal is to study the missing peak, i.e. the currently infected one (or total currently positive). After the April 7 the large increase in the number of swabs meant that the logistical behavior of the infected curve no longer worked. So we decided to generalize the model, introducing new parameters. Moreover, we adopt a similar approach used in [1] (for the estimation of deaths) in order to evaluate the recoveries. In this way, introducing a simple conservation law, we define a model with 4 populations: total infected, currently positives, recoveries and deaths. Therefore, we propose an alternative method to a classical SIRD model for the evaluation of the Sars-Cov-2 epidemic. However, the method is general and thus applicable to other diseases. Finally we study the behavior of the ratio infected over swabs for Italy, Germany and USA, and we show as studying this parameter we recover the generalized Logistic model used in [1] for these three countries. We think that this trend could be useful for a future epidemic of this coronavirus.
Understanding the patterns and processes of diversification of life in the planet is a key challenge of science. The Tree of Life represents such diversification processes through the evolutionary relationships among the different taxa, and can be extended down to intra-specific relationships. Here we examine the topological properties of a large set of interspecific and intraspecific phylogenies and show that the branching patterns follow allometric rules conserved across the different levels in the Tree of Life, all significantly departing from those expected from the standard null models. The finding of non-random universal patterns of phylogenetic differentiation suggests that similar evolutionary forces drive diversification across the broad range of scales, from macro-evolutionary to micro-evolutionary processes, shaping the diversity of life on the planet.