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A Fresh Approach to Forecasting in Astroparticle Physics and Dark Matter Searches

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 Added by Thomas Edwards
 Publication date 2017
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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We present a toolbox of new techniques and concepts for the efficient forecasting of experimental sensitivities. These are applicable to a large range of scenarios in (astro-)particle physics, and based on the Fisher information formalism. Fisher information provides an answer to the question what is the maximum extractable information from a given observation?. It is a common tool for the forecasting of experimental sensitivities in many branches of science, but rarely used in astroparticle physics or searches for particle dark matter. After briefly reviewing the Fisher information matrix of general Poisson likelihoods, we propose very compact expressions for estimating expected exclusion and discovery limits (equivalent counts method). We demonstrate by comparison with Monte Carlo results that they remain surprisingly accurate even deep in the Poisson regime. We show how correlated background systematics can be efficiently accounted for by a treatment based on Gaussian random fields. Finally, we introduce the novel concept of Fisher information flux. It can be thought of as a generalization of the commonly used signal-to-noise ratio, while accounting for the non-local properties and saturation effects of background and instrumental uncertainties. It is a powerful and flexible tool ready to be used as core concept for informed strategy development in astroparticle physics and searches for particle dark matter.

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The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a project for a next-generation observatory for very high energy (GeV-TeV) ground-based gamma-ray astronomy, currently in its design phase, and foreseen to be operative a few years from now. Several tens of telescopes of 2-3 different sizes, distributed over a large area, will allow for a sensitivity about a factor 10 better than current instruments such as H.E.S.S, MAGIC and VERITAS, an energy coverage from a few tens of GeV to several tens of TeV, and a field of view of up to 10 deg. In the following study, we investigate the prospects for CTA to study several science questions that influence our current knowledge of fundamental physics. Based on conservative assumptions for the performance of the different CTA telescope configurations, we employ a Monte Carlo based approach to evaluate the prospects for detection. First, we discuss CTA prospects for cold dark matter searches, following different observational strategies: in dwarf satellite galaxies of the Milky Way, in the region close to the Galactic Centre, and in clusters of galaxies. The possible search for spatial signatures, facilitated by the larger field of view of CTA, is also discussed. Next we consider searches for axion-like particles which, besides being possible candidates for dark matter may also explain the unexpectedly low absorption by extragalactic background light of gamma rays from very distant blazars. Simulated light-curves of flaring sources are also used to determine the sensitivity to violations of Lorentz Invariance by detection of the possible delay between the arrival times of photons at different energies. Finally, we mention searches for other exotic physics with CTA.
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