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Register a new userModeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
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Added by
Christian M\\\"ostl
Publication date
2017
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.
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The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CMEs path of propagation up to 1 AU. In our study we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined-up spacecraft MESSENGER and STEREO-B. Remote data from STEREO-B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth-directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from $3.5 pm 2.6$ h to $1.6 pm 1.1$ h at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth-directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally.
The scenario of twin coronal mass ejections (CMEs), i.e., a fast and wide primary CME (priCME) preceded by previous CMEs (preCMEs), has been found to be favorable to a more efficient particle acceleration in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Here, we study 19 events during 2007--2014 associated with twin-CME eruptions but without large SEP observations at L1 point. We combine remote-sensing and in situ observations from multiple spacecraft to investigate the role of magnetic connectivity in SEP detection and the CME information in 3-dimensional (3D) space. We study one-on-one correlations of the priCME 3D speed, flare intensity, suprathermal backgrounds, and height of CME-CME interaction with the SEP intensity. Among these, the priCME speed is found to correlate with the SEP peak intensity at the highest level. We use the projection correlation method to analyze the correlations between combinations of these multiple independent factors and the SEP peak intensity. We find that the only combination of two or more parameters that has higher correlation with the SEP peak intensity than the CME speed is the CME speed combined with the propagation direction. This further supports the dominant role of the priCME in controlling the SEP enhancements, and emphasizes the consideration of the latitudinal effect. Overall, the magnetic connectivity in longitude as well as latitude and the relatively lower priCME speed may explain the existence of the twin-CME SEP-poor events. The role of the barrier effect of preCME(s) is discussed for an event on 2013 October 28.
We demonstrate how the parameters of a Gibson-Low flux-rope-based coronal mass ejection (CME) can be constrained using remote observations. Our Multi Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) has been used to simulate the propagation of a CME in a data driven solar corona background computed using the photospheric magnetogram data. We constrain the CME model parameters using the observations of such key CME properties as its speed, orientation, and poloidal flux. The speed and orientation are estimated using multi-viewpoint white-light coronagraph images. The reconnected magnetic flux in the area covered by the post eruption arcade is used to estimate the poloidal flux in the CME flux rope. We simulate the partial halo CME on 7 March 2011 to demonstrate the efficiency of our approach. This CME erupted with the speed of 812 km/s and its poloidal flux, as estimated from source active region data, was 4.9e21 Mx. Using our approach, we were able to simulate this CME with the speed 840 km/s and the poloidal flux of 5.1e21 Mx, in remarkable agreement with the observations.
So far most studies on the structure of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are conducted through white-light coronagraphs, which demonstrate about one third of CMEs exhibit the typical three-part structure in the high corona (e.g., beyond 2 Rs), i.e., the bright front, the dark cavity and the bright core. In this paper, we address the CME structure in the low corona (e.g., below 1.3 Rs) through extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) passbands and find that the three-part CMEs in the white-light images can possess a similar three-part appearance in the EUV images, i.e., a leading edge, a low-density zone, and a filament or hot channel. The analyses identify that the leading edge and the filament or hot channel in the EUV passbands evolve into the front and the core later within several solar radii in the white-light passbands, respectively. Whats more, we find that the CMEs without obvious cavity in the white-light images can also exhibit the clear three-part appearance in the EUV images, which means that the low-density zone in the EUV images (observed as the cavity in white-light images) can be compressed and/or transformed gradually by the expansion of the bright core and/or the reconnection of magnetic field surrounding the core during the CME propagation outward. Our study suggests that more CMEs can possess the clear three-part structure in their early eruption stage. The nature of the low-density zone between the leading edge and the filament or hot channel is discussed.
The Coronal Multichannel Polarimeter (CoMP) measures not only the polarization of coronal emission, but also the full radiance profiles of coronal emission lines. For the first time, CoMP observations provide high-cadence image sequences of the coronal line intensity, Doppler shift and line width simultaneously in a large field of view. By studying the Doppler shift and line width we may explore more of the physical processes of CME initiation and propagation. Here we identify a list of CMEs observed by CoMP and present the first results of these observations. Our preliminary analysis shows that CMEs are usually associated with greatly increased Doppler shift and enhanced line width. These new observations provide not only valuable information to constrain CME models and probe various processes during the initial propagation of CMEs in the low corona, but also offer a possible cost-effective and low-risk means of space weather monitoring.
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