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Register a new userLarge 21 cm signals from AGN-dominated reionization
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Girish Kulkarni
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We present here predictions for the spatial distribution of 21 cm brightness temperature fluctuations from high-dynamic-range simulations for AGN-dominated reionization histories that have been tested against available Lyman-alpha and CMB data. We model AGN by extrapolating the observed M-sigma relation to high redshifts and assign them ionizing emissivities consistent with recent UV luminosity function measurements. We assess the observability of the predicted spatial 21 cm fluctuations by ongoing and upcoming experiments in the late stages of reionization in the limit in which the hydrogen 21 cm spin temperature is significantly larger than the CMB temperature. Our AGN-dominated reionization histories increase the variance of the 21 cm emission by a factor of up to ten compared to similar reionization histories dominated by faint galaxies, to values close to 100 mK^2 at scales accessible to experiments (k < 1 h/cMpc). This is lower than the sensitivity claimed to have been already reached by ongoing experiments by only a factor of about two or less. When reionization is dominated by AGN, the 21 cm power spectrum is enhanced on all scales due to the enhanced bias of the clustering of the more massive haloes and the peak in the large scale 21 cm power is strongly enhanced and moved to larger scales due to bigger characteristic bubble sizes. AGN dominated reionization should be easily detectable by LOFAR (and later HERA and SKA1) at their design sensitivity, assuming successful foreground subtraction and instrument calibration. Conversely, these could become the first non-trivial reionization scenarios to be ruled out by 21 cm experiments, thereby constraining the contribution of AGN to reionization.
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Spectral distortions in the cosmic microwave background over the 40--200~MHz band are imprinted by neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium prior to the end of reionization. This signal, produced in the redshift range $z = 6-34$ at the rest frame wavelength of 21 cm, has not been detected yet; and poor understanding of high redshift astrophysics results in a large uncertainty in the expected spectrum. The SARAS~2 radiometer was purposely designed to detect the sky-averaged 21-cm signal. The instrument, deployed at the Timbaktu Collective (Southern India) in April--June 2017, collected 63~hr of science data, which were examined for the presence of the cosmological 21-cm signal. In our previous work the first-light data from SARAS~2 radiometer were analyzed with Bayesian likelihood-ratio tests using $264$ plausible astrophysical scenarios. In this paper we re-examine the data using an improved analysis based on the frequentist approach and forward modeling. We show that SARAS~2 data rejects 27 models, out of which 25 are rejected at a significance $>5sigma$. All the rejected models share the scenario of inefficient heating of the primordial gas by the first population of X-ray sources along with rapid reionization.
While limited to low spatial resolution, the next generation low-frequency radio interferometers that target 21 cm observations during the era of reionization and prior will have instantaneous fields-of-view that are many tens of square degrees on the sky. Predictions related to various statistical measurements of the 21 cm brightness temperature must then be pursued with numerical simulations of reionization with correspondingly large volume box sizes, of order 1000 Mpc on one side. We pursue a semi-numerical scheme to simulate the 21 cm signal during and prior to Reionization by extending a hybrid approach where simulations are performed by first laying down the linear dark matter density field, accounting for the non-linear evolution of the density field based on second-order linear perturbation theory as specified by the Zeldovich approximation, and then specifying the location and mass of collapsed dark matter halos using the excursion-set formalism. The location of ionizing sources and the time evolving distribution of ionization field is also specified using an excursion-set algorithm. We account for the brightness temperature evolution through the coupling between spin and gas temperature due to collisions, radiative coupling in the presence of Lyman-alpha photons and heating of the intergalactic medium, such as due to a background of X-ray photons. The hybrid simulation method we present is capable of producing the required large volume simulations with adequate resolution in a reasonable time so a large number of realizations can be obtained with variations in assumptions related to astrophysics and background cosmology that govern the 21 cm signal.
Measurement of the spatial distribution of neutral hydrogen via the redshifted 21 cm line promises to revolutionize our knowledge of the epoch of reionization and the first galaxies, and may provide a powerful new tool for observational cosmology from redshifts 1<z<4 . In this review we discuss recent advances in our theoretical understanding of the epoch of reionization (EoR), the application of 21 cm tomography to cosmology and measurements of the dark energy equation of state after reionization, and the instrumentation and observational techniques shared by 21 cm EoR and post reionization cosmology machines. We place particular emphasis on the expected signal and observational capabilities of first generation 21 cm fluctuation instruments.
The 21-cm signal of neutral hydrogen is a sensitive probe of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and Cosmic Dawn. Currently operating radio telescopes have ushered in a data-driven era of 21-cm cosmology, providing the first constraints on the astrophysical properties of sources that drive this signal. However, extracting astrophysical information from the data is highly non-trivial and requires the rapid generation of theoretical templates over a wide range of astrophysical parameters. To this end emulators are often employed, with previous efforts focused on predicting the power spectrum. In this work we introduce 21cmGEM - the first emulator of the global 21-cm signal from Cosmic Dawn and the EoR. The smoothness of the output signal is guaranteed by design. We train neural networks to predict the cosmological signal using a database of ~30,000 simulated signals which were created by varying seven astrophysical parameters: the star formation efficiency and the minimal mass of star-forming halos; the efficiency of the first X-ray sources and their spectrum parameterized by spectral index and the low energy cutoff; the mean free path of ionizing photons and the CMB optical depth. We test the performance with a set of ~2,000 simulated signals, showing that the relative error in the prediction has an r.m.s. of 0.0159. The algorithm is efficient, with a running time per parameter set of 0.16 sec. Finally, we use the database of models to check the robustness of relations between the features of the global signal and the astrophysical parameters that we previously reported.
Using a suite of detailed numerical simulations we estimate the level of anisotropy generated by the time evolution along the light cone of the 21cm signal from the epoch of reionization. Our simulations include the physics necessary to model the signal during both the late emission regime and the early absorption regime, namely X-ray and Lyman-band 3D radiative transfer in addition to the usual dynamics and ionizing UV transfer. The signal is analysed using correlation functions perpendicular and parallel to the line of sight (LOS). We reproduce general findings from previous theoretical studies: the overall amplitude of the correlations and the fact that the light cone anisotropy is visible only on large scales (100 cMpc). However, the detailed behaviour is different. At 3 different epochs, the amplitude of the correlations along and perpendicular to the LOS differ from each other, indicating anisotropy. These 3 epochs are associated with 3 events of the global reionization history: the overlap of ionized bubbles, the onset of mild heating by X-rays in regions around the sources, and the onset of efficient Lyman-alpha coupling in regions around the sources. A 20x20 deg^2 survey area may be necessary to mitigate sample variance when we use the directional correlation functions. On a 100 cMpc scale the light cone anisotropy dominates over the anisotropy generated by peculiar velocity gradients computed in the linear regime. By modelling instrumental noise and limited resolution, we find that the anisotropy should be easily detectable by the SKA, assuming perfect foreground removal, the limiting factor being a large enough survey size. In the case of the LOFAR, it is likely that only first anisotropy episode will fall in the observing frequency range and will be detectable only if sample variance is much reduced (i.e. a larger than 20x20 deg^2 survey, which is not presently planned).
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