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Register a new userVariable classification in the LSST era: Exploring a model for quasi-periodic light curves
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J. C. Zinn
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LSST is expected to yield ~10^7 light curves over the course of its mission, which will require a concerted effort in automated classification. Stochastic processes provide one means of quantitatively describing variability with the potential advantage over simple light curve statistics that the parameters may be physically meaningful. Here, we survey a large sample of periodic, quasi-periodic, and stochastic OGLE-III variables using the damped random walk (DRW, CARMA(1,0)) and quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO, CARMA(2,1)) stochastic process models. The QPO model is described by an amplitude, a period, and a coherence time-scale, while the DRW has only an amplitude and a time-scale. We find that the periodic and quasi-periodic stellar variables are generally better described by a QPO than a DRW, while quasars are better described by the DRW model. There are ambiguities in interpreting the QPO coherence time due to non-sinusoidal light curve shapes, signal-to-noise, error mischaracterizations, and cadence. Higher-order implementations of the QPO model that better capture light curve shapes are necessary for the coherence time to have its implied physical meaning. Independent of physical meaning, the extra parameter of the QPO model successfully distinguishes most of the classes of periodic and quasi-periodic variables we consider.
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We present a novel automated methodology to detect and classify periodic variable stars in a large database of photometric time series. The methods are based on multivariate Bayesian statistics and use a multi-stage approach. We applied our method to the ground-based data of the TrES Lyr1 field, which is also observed by the Kepler satellite, covering ~26000 stars. We found many eclipsing binaries as well as classical non-radial pulsators, such as slowly pulsating B stars, Gamma Doradus, Beta Cephei and Delta Scuti stars. Also a few classical radial pulsators were found.
We present a machine learning package for the classification of periodic variable stars. Our package is intended to be general: it can classify any single band optical light curve comprising at least a few tens of observations covering durations from weeks to years, with arbitrary time sampling. We use light curves of periodic variable stars taken from OGLE and EROS-2 to train the model. To make our classifier relatively survey-independent, it is trained on 16 features extracted from the light curves (e.g. period, skewness, Fourier amplitude ratio). The model classifies light curves into one of seven superclasses - Delta Scuti, RR Lyrae, Cepheid, Type II Cepheid, eclipsing binary, long-period variable, non-variable - as well as subclasses of these, such as ab, c, d, and e types for RR Lyraes. When trained to give only superclasses, our model achieves 0.98 for both recall and precision as measured on an independent validation dataset (on a scale of 0 to 1). When trained to give subclasses, it achieves 0.81 for both recall and precision. In order to assess classification performance of the subclass model, we applied it to the MACHO, LINEAR, and ASAS periodic variables, which gave recall/precision of 0.92/0.98, 0.89/0.96, and 0.84/0.88, respectively. We also applied the subclass model to Hipparcos periodic variable stars of many other variability types that do not exist in our training set, in order to examine how much those types degrade the classification performance of our target classes. In addition, we investigate how the performance varies with the number of data points and duration of observations. We find that recall and precision do not vary significantly if the number of data points is larger than 80 and the duration is more than a few weeks. The classifier software of the subclass model is available from the GitHub repository (https://goo.gl/xmFO6Q).
A community meeting on the topic of Radio Astronomy in the LSST Era was hosted by the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Charlottesville, VA (2013 May 6--8). The focus of the workshop was on time domain radio astronomy and sky surveys. For the time domain, the extent to which radio and visible wavelength observations are required to understand several classes of transients was stressed, but there are also classes of radio transients for which no visible wavelength counterpart is yet known, providing an opportunity for discovery. From the LSST perspective, the LSST is expected to generate as many as 1 million alerts nightly, which will require even more selective specification and identification of the classes and characteristics of transients that can warrant follow up, at radio or any wavelength. The LSST will also conduct a deep survey of the sky, producing a catalog expected to contain over 38 billion objects in it. Deep radio wavelength sky surveys will also be conducted on a comparable time scale, and radio and visible wavelength observations are part of the multi-wavelength approach needed to classify and understand these objects. Radio wavelengths are valuable because they are unaffected by dust obscuration and, for galaxies, contain contributions both from star formation and from active galactic nuclei. The workshop touched on several other topics, on which there was consensus including the placement of other LSST Deep Drilling Fields, inter-operability of software tools, and the challenge of filtering and exploiting the LSST data stream. There were also topics for which there was insufficient time for full discussion or for which no consensus was reached, which included the procedures for following up on LSST observations and the nature for future support of researchers desiring to use LSST data products.
We develop a non-linear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely-sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting Period-Luminosity relations.
The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will produce an unprecedented amount of light curves using six optical bands. Robust and efficient methods that can aggregate data from multidimensional sparsely-sampled time series are needed. In this paper we present a new method for light curve period estimation based on the quadratic mutual information (QMI). The proposed method does not assume a particular model for the light curve nor its underlying probability density and it is robust to non-Gaussian noise and outliers. By combining the QMI from several bands the true period can be estimated even when no single-band QMI yields the period. Period recovery performance as a function of average magnitude and sample size is measured using 30,000 synthetic multi-band light curves of RR Lyrae and Cepheid variables generated by the LSST Operations and Catalog simulators. The results show that aggregating information from several bands is highly beneficial in LSST sparsely-sampled time series, obtaining an absolute increase in period recovery rate up to 50%. We also show that the QMI is more robust to noise and light curve length (sample size) than the multiband generalizations of the Lomb Scargle and Analysis of Variance periodograms, recovering the true period in 10-30% more cases than its competitors. A python package containing efficient Cython implementations of the QMI and other methods is provided.
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