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Register a new userEffects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914
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Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einsteins equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analyses on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than $sim$0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.
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This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) on September 14, 2015 [1]. Reference presented parameter estimation [2] of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and a 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [2], and we quote updated component masses of $35^{+5}_{-3}mathrm{M}_odot$ and $30^{+3}_{-4}mathrm{M}_odot$ (where errors correspond to 90% symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate $0.65$ and a secondary spin estimate $0.75$ at 90% probability. Reference [2] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.
Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy has consolidated its role as a new observational window to reveal the properties of compact binaries in the Universe. In particular, the discovery of the first binary neutron star coalescence, GW170817, led to a number of scientific breakthroughs as the possibility to place constraints on the equation of state of cold matter at supranuclear densities. These constraints and all scientific results based on them require accurate models describing the GW signal to extract the source properties from the measured signal. In this article, we study potential systematic biases during the extraction of source parameters using different descriptions for both, the point-particle dynamics and tidal effects. We find that for the considered cases the mass and spin recovery show almost no systematic bias with respect to the chosen waveform model. However, the extracted tidal effects can be strongly biased, where we find generally that Post-Newtonian approximants predict neutron stars with larger deformability and radii than numerical relativity tuned models. Noteworthy, an increase in the Post-Newtonian order in the tidal phasing does not lead to a monotonic change in the estimated properties. We find that for a signal with strength similar to GW170817, but observed with design sensitivity, the estimated tidal parameters can differ by more than a factor of two depending on the employed tidal description of the waveform approximant. This shows the current need for the development of better waveform models to extract reliably the source properties from upcoming GW detections.
Gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes allow new tests of general relativity to be performed on strong, dynamical gravitational fields. These tests require accurate waveform models of the gravitational-wave signal, otherwise waveform errors can erroneously suggest evidence for new physics. Existing waveforms are generally thought to be accurate enough for current observations, and each of the events observed to date appears to be individually consistent with general relativity. In the near future, with larger gravitational-wave catalogs, it will be possible to perform more stringent tests of gravity by analyzing large numbers of events together. However, there is a danger that waveform errors can accumulate among events: even if the waveform model is accurate enough for each individual event, it can still yield erroneous evidence for new physics when applied to a large catalog. This paper presents a simple linearised analysis, in the style of a Fisher matrix calculation, that reveals the conditions under which the apparent evidence for new physics due to waveform errors grows as the catalog size increases. We estimate that, in the worst-case scenario, evidence for a deviation from general relativity might appear in some tests using a catalog containing as few as 10-30 events above a signal-to-noise ratio of 20. This is close to the size of current catalogs and highlights the need for caution when performing these sorts of experiments.
We obtain stringent constraints on near-horizon deviations of a black hole from the Kerr geometry by performing a long-duration Bayesian analysis of the gravitational-wave data immediately following GW150914. GW150914 was caused by a binary system that merged to form a final compact object. We parameterize deviations of this object from a Kerr black hole by modifying its boundary conditions from full absorption to full reflection, thereby modeling it as a horizonless ultracompact object. Such modifications result in the emission of long-lived monochromatic quasinormal modes after the merger. These modes would extract energy on the order of a few solar masses from the final object, making them observable by LIGO. By putting bounds on the existence of these modes, we show that the Kerr geometry is not modified down to distances as small as $4 times 10^{-16}$ meters away from the horizon. Our results indicate that the post-merger object formed by GW150914 is a black hole that is well described by the Kerr geometry.
Extracting the properties of a binary system emitting gravitational waves relies on models describing the last stages of the compact binary coalescence. In this article, we study potential biases inherent to current tidal waveform approximants for spinning and precessing systems. We perform a Bayesian study to estimate intrinsic parameters of highly spinning binary neutron star systems. Our analysis shows that one has to include the quadrupolar deformation of the neutron stars due to their rotation once dimensionless spins above $chi sim 0.20$ are reached, otherwise the extracted intrinsic parameters are systematically biased. We find that at design sensitivity of Advanced LIGO and Virgo, it seems unlikely that for GW170817-like sources a clear imprint of precession will be visible in the analysis of the signal employing current waveform models. However, precession effects might be detectable for unequal mass configurations with spins larger than $chi>0.2$. We finalize our study by investigating possible benefits of a combined gravitational wave and electromagnetic detection. The presence of electromagnetic counterparts help in reducing the dimensionality of the parameter space with constraints on the sky location, source distance, and inclination. However, we note that although a small improvement in the estimation of the tidal deformability parameter is seen in these cases, changes in the intrinsic parameters are overall very small.
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