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Register a new userAstrophysical Prior Information and Gravitational-wave Parameter Estimation
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The detection of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational waves has great promise for the investigation of many scientific questions. It has long been hoped that in addition to providing extra, non-gravitational information about the sources of these signals, the detection of an electromagnetic signal in conjunction with a gravitational wave could aid in the analysis of the gravitational signal itself. That is, knowledge of the sky location, inclination, and redshift of a binary could break degeneracies between these extrinsic, coordinate-dependent parameters and the physical parameters, such as mass and spin, that are intrinsic to the binary. In this paper, we investigate this issue by assuming a perfect knowledge of extrinsic parameters, and assessing the maximal impact of this knowledge on our ability to extract intrinsic parameters. However, we find only modest improvements in a few parameters --- namely the primary components spin --- and conclude that, even in the best case, the use of additional information from electromagnetic observations does not improve the measurement of the intrinsic parameters significantly.
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The Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) has been the standard approximation to the accuracy of parameter estimation on gravitational-wave signals from merging compact binaries due to its ease-of-use and rapid computation time. While the theoretical failings of this method, such as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) limit on the validity of the lowest-order expansion and the difficulty of using non-Gaussian priors, are well understood, the practical effectiveness compared to a real parameter estimation technique (e.g. Markov-chain Monte Carlo) remains an open question. We present a direct comparison between the FIM error estimates and the Bayesian probability density functions produced by the parameter estimation code lalinference_mcmc. In addition to the low-SNR issues usually considered, we find that the FIM can greatly overestimate the uncertainty in parameter estimation achievable by the MCMC. This was found to be a systematic effect for systems composed of binary black holes, with the disagreement increasing with total mass. In some cases, the MCMC search returned standard deviations on the marginalized posteriors that were smaller by several orders of magnitude than the FIM estimates. We conclude that the predictions of the FIM do not represent the capabilities of real gravitational-wave parameter estimation.
We provide a comprehensive multi-aspect study on the performance of a pipeline used by the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration for estimating parameters of gravitational-wave bursts. We add simulated signals with four different morphologies (sine-Gaussians, Gaussians, white-noise bursts, and binary black hole signals) to simulated noise samples representing noise of the two Advanced LIGO detectors during their first observing run. We recover them with the BayesWave (BW) pipeline to study its accuracy in sky localization, waveform reconstruction, and estimation of model-independent waveform parameters. BW localizes sources with a level of accuracy comparable for all four morphologies, with the median separation of actual and estimated sky locations ranging from 25.1$^{circ}$ to 30.3$^{circ}$. This is a reasonable accuracy in the two-detector case, and is comparable to accuracies of other localization methods studied previously. As BW reconstructs generic transient signals with sine-Gaussian wavelets, it is unsurprising that BW performs the best in reconstructing sine-Gaussian and Gaussian waveforms. BWs accuracy in waveform reconstruction increases steeply with network signal-to-noise ratio (SNR$_{rm net}$), reaching a $85%$ and $95%$ match between the reconstructed and actual waveform below SNR$_{rm net} approx 20$ and SNR$_{rm net} approx 50$, respectively, for all morphologies. BWs accuracy in estimating central moments of waveforms is only limited by statistical errors in the frequency domain, and is affected by systematic errors too in the time domain as BW cannot reconstruct low-amplitude parts of signals overwhelmed by noise. The figures of merit we introduce can be used in future characterizations of parameter estimation pipelines.
Reliable low-latency gravitational wave parameter estimation is essential to target limited electromagnetic followup facilities toward astrophysically interesting and electromagnetically relevant sources of gravitational waves. In this study, we examine the tradeoff between speed and accuracy. Specifically, we estimate the astrophysical relevance of systematic errors in the posterior parameter distributions derived using a fast-but-approximate waveform model, SpinTaylorF2 (STF2), in parameter estimation with lalinference_mcmc. Though efficient, the STF2 approximation to compact binary inspiral employs approximate kinematics (e.g., a single spin) and an approximate waveform (e.g., frequency domain versus time domain). More broadly, using a large astrophysically-motivated population of generic compact binary merger signals, we report on the effectualness and limitations of this single-spin approximation as a method to infer parameters of generic compact binary sources. For most low-mass compact binary sources, we find that the STF2 approximation estimates compact binary parameters with biases comparable to systematic uncertainties in the waveform. We illustrate by example the effect these systematic errors have on posterior probabilities most relevant to low-latency electromagnetic followup: whether the secondary is has a mass consistent with a neutron star; whether the masses, spins, and orbit are consistent with that neutron stars tidal disruption; and whether the binarys angular momentum axis is oriented along the line of sight.
One of the main bottlenecks in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy is the high cost of performing parameter estimation and GW searches on the fly. We propose a novel technique based on Reduced Order Quadratures (ROQs), an application and data-specific quadrature rule, to perform fast and accurate likelihood evaluations. These are the dominant cost in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are widely employed in parameter estimation studies, and so ROQs offer a new way to accelerate GW parameter estimation. We illustrate our approach using a four dimensional GW burst model embedded in noise. We build an ROQ for this model, and perform four dimensional MCMC searches with both the standard and ROQs quadrature rules, showing that, for this model, the ROQ approach is around 25 times faster than the standard approach with essentially no loss of accuracy. The speed-up from using ROQs is expected to increase for more complex GW signal models and therefore has significant potential to accelerate parameter estimation of GW sources such as compact binary coalescences.
We study the impact of gas accretion on the orbital evolution of black-hole binaries initially at large separation in the band of the planned Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We focus on two sources: (i)~stellar-origin black-hole binaries~(SOBHBs) that can migrate from the LISA band to the band of ground-based gravitational-wave observatories within weeks/months; and (ii) intermediate-mass black-hole binaries~(IMBHBs) in the LISA band only. Because of the large number of observable gravitational-wave cycles, the phase evolution of these systems needs to be modeled to great accuracy to avoid biasing the estimation of the source parameters. Accretion affects the gravitational-wave phase at negative ($-4$) post-Newtonian order, and is therefore dominant for binaries at large separations. If accretion takes place at the Eddington or at super-Eddington rate, it will leave a detectable imprint on the dynamics of SOBHBs. In optimistic astrophysical scenarios, a multiwavelength strategy with LISA and a ground-based interferometer can detect about $10$ (a few) SOBHB events for which the accretion rate can be measured at $50%$ ($10%$) level. In all cases the sky position can be identified within much less than $0.4,{rm deg}^2$ uncertainty. Likewise, accretion at $gtrsim 10%$ ($gtrsim 100%$) of the Eddington rate can be measured in IMBHBs up to redshift $zapprox 0.1$ ($zapprox 0.5$), and the position of these sources can be identified within less than $0.01,{rm deg}^2$ uncertainty. Altogether, a detection of SOBHBs or IMBHBs would allow for targeted searches of electromagnetic counterparts to black-hole mergers in gas-rich environments with future X-ray detectors (such as Athena) and radio observatories (such as SKA).
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