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Register a new userAirborne contaminant source estimation using a finite-volume forward solver coupled with a Bayesian inversion approach
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Added by
Bamdad Hosseini Mr.
Publication date
2016
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We propose a numerical algorithm for solving the atmospheric dispersion problem with elevated point sources and ground-level deposition. The problem is modelled by the 3D advection-diffusion equation with delta-distribution source terms, as well as height-dependent advection speed and diffusion coefficients. We construct a finite volume scheme using a splitting approach in which the Clawpack software package is used as the advection solver and an implicit time discretization is proposed for the diffusion terms. The algorithm is then applied to an actual industrial scenario involving emissions of airborne particulates from a zinc smelter using actual wind measurements. We also address various practical considerations such as choosing appropriate methods for regularizing noisy wind data and quantifying sensitivity of the model to parameter uncertainty. Afterwards, we use the algorithm within a Bayesian framework for estimating emission rates of zinc from multiple sources over the industrial site. We compare our finite volume solver with a Gaussian plume solver within the Bayesian framework and demonstrate that the finite volume solver results in tighter uncertainty bounds on the estimated emission rates.
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In this paper, a Bayesian semiparametric copula approach is used to model the underlying multivariate distribution $F_{true}$. First, the Dirichlet process is constructed on the unknown marginal distributions of $F_{true}$. Then a Gaussian copula model is utilized to capture the dependence structure of $F_{true}$. As a result, a Bayesian multivariate normality test is developed by combining the relative belief ratio and the Energy distance. Several interesting theoretical results of the approach are derived. Finally, through several simulated examples and a real data set, the proposed approach reveals excellent performance.
A new method is proposed for estimating the rate of fugitive emissions of particulate matter from multiple time-dependent sources via measurements of deposition and concentration. We cast this source inversion problem within the Bayesian framework, and use a forward model based on a Gaussian plume solution. We present three alternate models for constructing the prior distribution on the emission rates as functions of time. Next, we present an industrial case study in which our framework is applied to estimate the rate of fugitive emissions of lead particulates from a smelter in Trail, British Columbia, Canada. The Bayesian framework not only provides an approximate solution to the inverse problem, but also quantifies the uncertainty in the solution. Using this information we perform an uncertainty propagation study in order to assess the impact of the estimated sources on the area surrounding the industrial site.
The reconstruction of the unknown acoustic source is studied using the noisy multiple frequency data on a remote closed surface. Assume that the unknown source is coded in a spatial dependent piecewise constant function, whose support set is the target to be determined. In this setting, the unknown source can be formalized by a level set function. The function is explored with Bayesian level set approach. To reduce the infinite dimensional problem to finite dimension, we parameterize the level set function by the radial basis expansion. The well-posedness of the posterior distribution is proven. The posterior samples are generated according to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the sample mean is used to approximate the unknown. Several shapes are tested to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. These numerical results show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and competitive with the Matern random field for the acoustic source problem.
We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally unknown. We propose an importance sampling approach with an auxiliary parameter when the transition density is unknown. We embed the auxiliary importance sampler in a penalized maximum likelihood framework which produces more accurate and computationally efficient parameter estimates. Simulation studies in three different models illustrate promising improvements of the new penalized simulated maximum likelihood method. The new procedure is designed for the challenging case when some state variables are unobserved and moreover, observed states are sparse over time, which commonly arises in ecological studies. We apply this new approach to two epidemics of chronic wasting disease in mule deer.
In spatial statistics, it is often assumed that the spatial field of interest is stationary and its covariance has a simple parametric form, but these assumptions are not appropriate in many applications. Given replicate observations of a Gaussian spatial field, we propose nonstationary and nonparametric Bayesian inference on the spatial dependence. Instead of estimating the quadratic (in the number of spatial locations) entries of the covariance matrix, the idea is to infer a near-linear number of nonzero entries in a sparse Cholesky factor of the precision matrix. Our prior assumptions are motivated by recent results on the exponential decay of the entries of this Cholesky factor for Matern-type covariances under a specific ordering scheme. Our methods are highly scalable and parallelizable. We conduct numerical comparisons and apply our methodology to climate-model output, enabling statistical emulation of an expensive physical model.
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