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Register a new userBayesian isochrone fitting and stellar ages
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D. Valls-Gabaud
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Stellar evolution theory has been extraordinarily successful at explaining the different phases under which stars form, evolve and die. While the strongest constraints have traditionally come from binary stars, the advent of asteroseismology is bringing unique measures in well-characterised stars. For stellar populations in general, however, only photometric measures are usually available, and the comparison with the predictions of stellar evolution theory have mostly been qualitative. For instance, the geometrical shapes of isochrones have been used to infer ages of coeval populations, but without any proper statistical basis. In this chapter we provide a pedagogical review on a Bayesian formalism to make quantitative inferences on the properties of single, binary and small ensembles of stars, including unresolved populations. As an example, we show how stellar evolution theory can be used in a rigorous way as a prior information to measure the ages of stars between the ZAMS and the Helium flash, and their uncertainties, using photometric data only.
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We present a new age-dating technique that combines gyrochronology with isochrone fitting to infer ages for FGKM main-sequence and subgiant field stars. Gyrochronology and isochrone fitting are each capable of providing relatively precise ages for field stars in certain areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram: gyrochronology works optimally for cool main-sequence stars, and isochrone fitting can provide precise ages for stars near the main-sequence turnoff. Combined, these two age-dating techniques can provide precise and accurate ages for a broader range of stellar masses and evolutionary stages than either method used in isolation. We demonstrate that the position of a star on the Hertzsprung- Russell or color-magnitude diagram can be combined with its rotation period to infer a precise age via both isochrone fitting and gyrochronology simultaneously. We show that incorporating rotation periods with 5% uncertainties into stellar evolution models improves age precision for FGK stars on the main sequence, and can, on average, provide age estimates up to three times more precise than isochrone fitting alone. In addition, we provide a new gyrochronology relation, calibrated to the Praesepe cluster and the Sun, that includes a variance model to capture the rotational behavior of stars whose rotation periods do not lengthen with the square-root of time, and parts of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where gyrochronology has not been calibrated. This publication is accompanied by an open source Python package, stardate, for inferring the ages of main-sequence and subgiant FGKM stars from rotation periods, spectroscopic parameters and/or apparent magnitudes and parallaxes.
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Over two decades of astrometric and radial velocity data of short period stars in the Galactic center have the potential to provide unprecedented tests of General Relativity and insight into the astrophysics of supermassive black holes. Fundamental to this is understanding the underlying statistical issues of fitting stellar orbits. Unintended prior effects can obscure actual physical effects from General Relativity and the underlying extended mass distribution. At the heart of this is dealing with large parameter spaces inherent to multi star fitting and ensuring acceptable coverage properties of the resulting confidence intervals within the Bayesian framework. This proceeding will detail some of the UCLA Galactic Center Groups analysis and work in addressing these statistical issues.
Extended main-sequence turn-offs (eMSTO) are a commonly observed property of young clusters. A global theoretical interpretation for the eMSTOs is still lacking, but stellar rotation is considered a necessary ingredient to explain the eMSTO. We aim to assess the importance of core-boundary and envelope mixing in stellar interiors for the interpretation of eMSTOs in terms of one coeval population. We construct isochrone-clouds based on interior mixing profiles of stars with a convective core calibrated from asteroseismology of isolated galactic field stars. We fit these isochrone-clouds to the measured eMSTO to estimate the age and core mass of the stars in the two young clusters NGC 1850 and NGC 884, assuming one coeval population and fixing the metallicity to the one measured from spectroscopy. We assess the correlations between the interior mixing properties of the cluster members and their rotational and pulsation properties. We find that stellar models based on asteroseismically-calibrated interior mixing profiles lead to enhanced core masses of eMSTO stars and can explain a good fraction of the observed eMSTOs of the two considered clusters in terms of one coeval population of stars, with similar ages to those in the literature, given the large uncertainties. The rotational and pulsation properties of the stars in NGC 884 are not sufficiently well known to perform asteroseismic modelling, as it is achieved for field stars from space photometry. The stars in NGC 884 for which we have vsini and a few pulsation frequencies show no correlation between these properties and the core masses of the stars that set the cluster age. Future cluster space asteroseismology may allow to interpret the values of the core masses in terms of the physical processes that cause them, based on the modelling of the interior mixing profiles for the individual member stars with suitable identified modes.
Understanding the formation and evolution of our Galaxy requires accurate distances, ages and chemistry for large populations of field stars. Here we present several updates to our spectro-photometric distance code, that can now also be used to estimate ages, masses, and extinctions for individual stars. Given a set of measured spectro-photometric parameters, we calculate the posterior probability distribution over a given grid of stellar evolutionary models, using flexible Galactic stellar-population priors. The code (called {tt StarHorse}) can acommodate different observational datasets, prior options, partially missing data, and the inclusion of parallax information into the estimated probabilities. We validate the code using a variety of simulated stars as well as real stars with parameters determined from asteroseismology, eclipsing binaries, and isochrone fits to star clusters. Our main goal in this validation process is to test the applicability of the code to field stars with known {it Gaia}-like parallaxes. The typical internal precision (obtained from realistic simulations of an APOGEE+Gaia-like sample) are $simeq 8%$ in distance, $simeq 20%$ in age,$simeq 6 %$ in mass, and $simeq 0.04$ mag in $A_V$. The median external precision (derived from comparisons with earlier work for real stars) varies with the sample used, but lies in the range of $simeq [0,2]%$ for distances, $simeq [12,31]%$ for ages, $simeq [4,12]%$ for masses, and $simeq 0.07$ mag for $A_V$. We provide StarHorse distances and extinctions for the APOGEE DR14, RAVE DR5, GES DR3 and GALAH DR1 catalogues.
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