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Register a new userStatistics of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal -- II. The evolution of the power spectrum error-covariance
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Rajesh Mondal
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The EoR 21-cm signal is expected to become highly non-Gaussian as reionization progresses. This severely affects the error-covariance of the EoR 21-cm power spectrum which is important for predicting the prospects of a detection with ongoing and future experiments. Most earlier works have assumed that the EoR 21-cm signal is a Gaussian random field where (1) the error variance depends only on the power spectrum and the number of Fourier modes in the particular $k$ bin, and (2) the errors in the different $k$ bins are uncorrelated. Here we use an ensemble of simulated 21-cm maps to analyze the error-covariance at various stages of reionization. We find that even at the very early stages of reionization ($bar{x}_{rm HI} sim 0.9 $) the error variance significantly exceeds the Gaussian predictions at small length-scales ($k > 0.5 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1}$) while they are consistent at larger scales. The errors in most $k$ bins (both large and small scales), are however found to be correlated. Considering the later stages ($bar{x}_{rm HI} = 0.15$), the error variance shows an excess in all $k$ bins within $k ge 0.1 , {rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and it is around $200$ times larger than the Gaussian prediction at $k sim 1 , {rm Mpc}^{-1}$. The errors in the different $k$ bins are all also highly correlated, barring the two smallest $k$ bins which are anti-correlated with the other bins. Our results imply that the predictions for different 21-cm experiments based on the Gaussian assumption underestimate the errors, and it is necessary to incorporate the non-Gaussianity for more realistic predictions.
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The non-Gaussian nature of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal has a significant impact on the error variance of its power spectrum $P({bf textit{k}})$. We have used a large ensemble of semi-numerical simulations and an analytical model to estimate the effect of this non-Gaussianity on the entire error-covariance matrix ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$. Our analytical model shows that ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$ has contributions from two sources. One is the usual variance for a Gaussian random field which scales inversely of the number of modes that goes into the estimation of $P({bf textit{k}})$. The other is the trispectrum of the signal. Using the simulated 21-cm signal ensemble, an ensemble of the randomized signal and ensembles of Gaussian random ensembles we have quantified the effect of the trispectrum on the error variance ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$. We find that its relative contribution is comparable to or larger than that of the Gaussian term for the $k$ range $0.3 leq k leq 1.0 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and can be even $sim 200$ times larger at $k sim 5, {rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We also establish that the off-diagonal terms of ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$ have statistically significant non-zero values which arise purely from the trispectrum. This further signifies that the error in different $k$ modes are not independent. We find a strong correlation between the errors at large $k$ values ($ge 0.5 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1}$), and a weak correlation between the smallest and largest $k$ values. There is also a small anti-correlation between the errors in the smallest and intermediate $k$ values. These results are relevant for the $k$ range that will be probed by the current and upcoming EoR 21-cm experiments.
The Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal is expected to become increasingly non-Gaussian as reionization proceeds. We have used semi-numerical simulations to study how this affects the error predictions for the EoR 21-cm power spectrum. We expect $SNR=sqrt{N_k}$ for a Gaussian random field where $N_k$ is the number of Fourier modes in each $k$ bin. We find that non-Gaussianity is important at high $SNR$ where it imposes an upper limit $[SNR]_l$. For a fixed volume $V$, it is not possible to achieve $SNR > [SNR]_l$ even if $N_k$ is increased. The value of $[SNR]_l$ falls as reionization proceeds, dropping from $sim 500$ at $bar{x}_{HI} = 0.8-0.9$ to $sim 10$ at $bar{x}_{HI} = 0.15 $ for a $[150.08, {rm Mpc}]^3$ simulation. We show that it is possible to interpret $[SNR]_l$ in terms of the trispectrum, and we expect $[SNR]_l propto sqrt{V}$ if the volume is increased. For $SNR ll [SNR]_l$ we find $SNR = sqrt{N_k}/A $ with $A sim 0.95 - 1.75$, roughly consistent with the Gaussian prediction. We present a fitting formula for the $SNR$ as a function of $N_k$, with two parameters $A$ and $[SNR]_l$ that have to be determined using simulations. Our results are relevant for predicting the sensitivity of different instruments to measure the EoR 21-cm power spectrum, which till date have been largely based on the Gaussian assumption.
The motion of the solar system with respect to the cosmic rest frame modulates the monopole of the Epoch of Reionization 21-cm signal into a dipole. This dipole has a characteristic frequency dependence that is dominated by the frequency derivative of the monopole signal. We argue that although the signal is weaker by a factor of $sim100$, there are significant benefits in measuring the dipole. Most importantly, the direction of the cosmic velocity vector is known exquisitely well from the cosmic microwave background and is not aligned with the galaxy velocity vector that modulates the foreground monopole. Moreover, an experiment designed to measure a dipole can rely on differencing patches of the sky rather than making an absolute signal measurement, which helps with some systematic effects.
It is predicted that sources emitting UV radiation in the Lyman band during the epoch of reionization (EoR) showed a series of discontinuities in their Ly-alpha flux radial profile as a consequence of the thickness of the Lyman line series in the primeval intergalactic medium. Through unsaturated Wouthuysen-Field coupling, these spherical discontinuities are also present in the 21 cm emission of the neutral IGM. In this article, we study the effects these discontinuities have on the differential brightness temperature of the 21 cm signal of neutral hydrogen in a realistic setting including all other sources of fluctuations. We focus on the early phases of the EoR, and we address the question of the detectability by the planned Square Kilometre Array. Such a detection would be of great interest, because these structures could provide an unambiguous diagnostic for the cosmological origin of the signal remaining after the foreground cleaning procedure. Also, they could be used as a new type of standard rulers. We determine the differential brightness temperature of the 21 cm signal in the presence of inhomogeneous Wouthuysen-Field effect using simulations which include (hydro)dynamics and both ionizing and Lyman lines 3D radiative transfer with the code LICORICE. We find that the Lyman horizons are clearly visible on the maps and radial profiles around the first sources of our simulations, but for a limited time interval, typically Delta z approx 2 at z sim 13. Stacking the profiles of the different sources of the simulation at a given redshift results in extending this interval to Delta z approx 4. When we take into account the implementation and design planned for the SKA (collecting area, sensitivity, resolution), we find that detection will be challenging. It may be possible with a 10 km diameter for the core, but will be difficult with the currently favored design of a 5 km core.
Using a suite of detailed numerical simulations we estimate the level of anisotropy generated by the time evolution along the light cone of the 21cm signal from the epoch of reionization. Our simulations include the physics necessary to model the signal during both the late emission regime and the early absorption regime, namely X-ray and Lyman-band 3D radiative transfer in addition to the usual dynamics and ionizing UV transfer. The signal is analysed using correlation functions perpendicular and parallel to the line of sight (LOS). We reproduce general findings from previous theoretical studies: the overall amplitude of the correlations and the fact that the light cone anisotropy is visible only on large scales (100 cMpc). However, the detailed behaviour is different. At 3 different epochs, the amplitude of the correlations along and perpendicular to the LOS differ from each other, indicating anisotropy. These 3 epochs are associated with 3 events of the global reionization history: the overlap of ionized bubbles, the onset of mild heating by X-rays in regions around the sources, and the onset of efficient Lyman-alpha coupling in regions around the sources. A 20x20 deg^2 survey area may be necessary to mitigate sample variance when we use the directional correlation functions. On a 100 cMpc scale the light cone anisotropy dominates over the anisotropy generated by peculiar velocity gradients computed in the linear regime. By modelling instrumental noise and limited resolution, we find that the anisotropy should be easily detectable by the SKA, assuming perfect foreground removal, the limiting factor being a large enough survey size. In the case of the LOFAR, it is likely that only first anisotropy episode will fall in the observing frequency range and will be detectable only if sample variance is much reduced (i.e. a larger than 20x20 deg^2 survey, which is not presently planned).
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