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Register a new userConsensus in the Presence of Multiple Opinion Leaders: Effect of Bounded Confidence
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Added by
Kamal Premaratne
Publication date
2016
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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The problem of analyzing the performance of networked agents exchanging evidence in a dynamic network has recently grown in importance. This problem has relevance in signal and data fusion network applications and in studying opinion and consensus dynamics in social networks. Due to its capability of handling a wider variety of uncertainties and ambiguities associated with evidence, we use the framework of Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory to capture the opinion of an agent. We then examine the consensus among agents in dynamic networks in which an agent can utilize either a cautious or receptive updating strategy. In particular, we examine the case of bounded confidence updating where an agent exchanges its opinion only with neighboring nodes possessing similar evidence. In a fusion network, this captures the case in which nodes only update their state based on evidence consistent with the nodes own evidence. In opinion dynamics, this captures the notions of Social Judgment Theory (SJT) in which agents update their opinions only with other agents possessing opinions closer to their own. Focusing on the two special DS theoretic cases where an agent state is modeled as a Dirichlet body of evidence and a probability mass function (p.m.f.), we utilize results from matrix theory, graph theory, and networks to prove the existence of consensus agent states in several time-varying network cases of interest. For example, we show the existence of a consensus in which a subset of network nodes achieves a consensus that is adopted by follower network nodes. Of particular interest is the case of multiple opinion leaders, where we show that the agents do not reach a consensus in general, but rather converge to opinion clusters. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the main results.
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Peoples opinions evolve over time as they interact with their friends, family, colleagues, and others. In the study of opinion dynamics on networks, one often encodes interactions between people in the form of dyadic relationships, but many social interactions in real life are polyadic (i.e., they involve three or more people). In this paper, we extend an asynchronous bounded-confidence model (BCM) on graphs, in which nodes are connected pairwise by edges, to an asynchronous BCM on hypergraphs, in which arbitrarily many nodes can be connected by a single hyperedge. We show that our hypergraph BCM converges to consensus under a wide range of initial conditions for the opinions of the nodes, including for non-uniform and asymmetric initial opinion distributions. We also show that, under suitable conditions, echo chambers can form on hypergraphs with community structure. We demonstrate that the opinions of individuals can sometimes jump from one opinion cluster to another in a single time step, a phenomenon (which we call ``opinion jumping) that is not possible in standard dyadic BCMs. Additionally, we observe that there is a phase transition in the convergence time on {a complete hypergraph} when the variance $sigma^2$ of the initial opinion distribution equals the confidence bound $c$. We prove that the convergence time grows at least exponentially fast with the number of nodes when $sigma^2 > c$ and the initial opinions are normally distributed. Therefore, to determine the convergence properties of our hypergraph BCM when the variance and the number of hyperedges are both large, it is necessary to use analytical methods instead of relying only on Monte Carlo simulations.
The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of discussion participants are chosen at random and their opinions get closer to each other if they are within a fixed tolerance level. We modify the selection rule of the discussion partners: there is an enhanced probability to choose individuals whose opinions are already close to each other, thus mimicking the behavior of online media which suggest interaction with similar peers. As a result we observe: a) an increased tendency towards polarization, which emerges also in conditions where the original model would predict convergence, and b) a dramatic slowing down of the speed at which the convergence at the asymptotic state is reached, which makes the system highly unstable. Polarization is augmented by a fragmented initial population.
Structural balance theory has been developed in sociology and psychology to explain how interacting agents, e.g., countries, political parties, opinionated individuals, with mixed trust and mistrust relationships evolve into polarized camps. Recent results have shown that structural balance is necessary for polarization in networks with fixed, strongly connected neighbor relationships when the opinion dynamics are described by DeGroot-type averaging rules. We develop this line of research in this paper in two steps. First, we consider fixed, not necessarily strongly connected, neighbor relationships. It is shown that if the network includes a strongly connected subnetwork containing mistrust, which influences the rest of the network, then no opinion clustering is possible when that subnetwork is not structurally balanced; all the opinions become neutralized in the end. In contrast, it is shown that when that subnetwork is indeed structurally balanced, the agents of the subnetwork evolve into two polarized camps and the opinions of all other agents in the network spread between these two polarized opinions. Second, we consider time-varying neighbor relationships. We show that the opinion separation criteria carry over if the conditions for fixed graphs are extended to joint graphs. The results are developed for both discrete-time and continuous-time models.
In a fast evolving major public health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple pieces of relevant information can be posted sequentially in a social media platform. The interval between subsequent posting times may have different impact on the transmission and cross-propagation of the old and new information to result in different peak value and final size of forwarding users of the new information, depending on the content correlation and whether the new information is posted during the outbreak or quasi steady state phase of the old information. To help in designing effective communication strategies to ensure information is delivered to the maximal number of users, we develop and analyze two classes of susceptible-forwarding-immune information propagation models with delay in transmission, to describe the cross-propagation process of relevant information. We parametrize these models using real data from the Sina-Microblog and use the parametrized models to define and evaluate mutual attractiveness indices, and we use these indices and parameter sensitivity analyses to inform strategies to ensure optimal strategies for a new information to be effectively propagated in the microblog.
This paper examines the structural controllability for a group of agents, called followers, connected to each other based on the consensus law under commands of multiple leaders, which are agents with superior capabilities, over a fixed communication topology. It is proved that the graph-theoretic sufficient and necessary condition for the set of followers to be structurally controllable under the leaders commands is leader-follower connectivity of the associated graph topology. This shrinks to graph connectivity for the case of solo leader. In the approach, we explicitly put into account the dependence among the entries of the system matrices for a consensus network using the linear parameterization technique introduced in [1].
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