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Register a new userA Statistical Model for Stroke Outcome Prediction and Treatment Planning
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Stroke is a major cause of mortality and long--term disability in the world. Predictive outcome models in stroke are valuable for personalized treatment, rehabilitation planning and in controlled clinical trials. In this paper we design a new model to predict outcome in the short-term, the putative therapeutic window for several treatments. Our regression-based model has a parametric form that is designed to address many challenges common in medical datasets like highly correlated variables and class imbalance. Empirically our model outperforms the best--known previous models in predicting short--term outcomes and in inferring the most effective treatments that improve outcome.
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The volume of stroke lesion is the gold standard for predicting the clinical outcome of stroke patients. However, the presence of stroke lesion may cause neural disruptions to other brain regions, and these potentially damaged regions may affect the clinical outcome of stroke patients. In this paper, we introduce the tractographic feature to capture these potentially damaged regions and predict the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), which is a widely used outcome measure in stroke clinical trials. The tractographic feature is built from the stroke lesion and average connectome information from a group of normal subjects. The tractographic feature takes into account different functional regions that may be affected by the stroke, thus complementing the commonly used stroke volume features. The proposed tractographic feature is tested on a public stroke benchmark Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation 2017 and achieves higher accuracy than the stroke volume and the state-of-the-art feature on predicting the mRS grades of stroke patients. In addition, the tractographic feature also yields a lower average absolute error than the commonly used stroke volume feature.
Predicting the future motion of multiple agents is necessary for planning in dynamic environments. This task is challenging for autonomous driving since agents (e.g., vehicles and pedestrians) and their associated behaviors may be diverse and influence each other. Most prior work has focused on first predicting independent futures for each agent based on all past motion, and then planning against these independent predictions. However, planning against fixed predictions can suffer from the inability to represent the future interaction possibilities between different agents, leading to sub-optimal planning. In this work, we formulate a model for predicting the behavior of all agents jointly in real-world driving environments in a unified manner. Inspired by recent language modeling approaches, we use a masking strategy as the query to our model, enabling one to invoke a single model to predict agent behavior in many ways, such as potentially conditioned on the goal or full future trajectory of the autonomous vehicle or the behavior of other agents in the environment. Our model architecture fuses heterogeneous world state in a unified Transformer architecture by employing attention across road elements, agent interactions and time steps. We evaluate our approach on autonomous driving datasets for behavior prediction, and achieve state-of-the-art performance. Our work demonstrates that formulating the problem of behavior prediction in a unified architecture with a masking strategy may allow us to have a single model that can perform multiple motion prediction and planning related tasks effectively.
Patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest (CA) face a high risk of neurological disability and death, however pragmatic methods are lacking for accurate and reliable prognostication. The aim of this study was to build computational models to predict post-CA outcome by leveraging high-dimensional patient data available early after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). We hypothesized that model performance could be enhanced by integrating physiological time series (PTS) data and by training machine learning (ML) classifiers. We compared three models integrating features extracted from the electronic health records (EHR) alone, features derived from PTS collected in the first 24hrs after ICU admission (PTS24), and models integrating PTS24 and EHR. Outcomes of interest were survival and neurological outcome at ICU discharge. Combined EHR-PTS24 models had higher discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) than models which used either EHR or PTS24 alone, for the prediction of survival (AUC 0.85, 0.80 and 0.68 respectively) and neurological outcome (0.87, 0.83 and 0.78). The best ML classifier achieved higher discrimination than the reference logistic regression model (APACHE III) for survival (AUC 0.85 vs 0.70) and neurological outcome prediction (AUC 0.87 vs 0.75). Feature analysis revealed previously unknown factors to be associated with post-CA recovery. Results attest to the effectiveness of ML models for post-CA predictive modeling and suggest that PTS recorded in very early phase after resuscitation encode short-term outcome probabilities.
Disease surveillance is essential not only for the prior detection of outbreaks but also for monitoring trends of the disease in the long run. In this paper, we aim to build a tactical model for the surveillance of dengue, in particular. Most existing models for dengue prediction exploit its known relationships between climate and socio-demographic factors with the incidence counts, however they are not flexible enough to capture the steep and sudden rise and fall of the incidence counts. This has been the motivation for the methodology used in our paper. We build a non-parametric, flexible, Gaussian Process (GP) regression model that relies on past dengue incidence counts and climate covariates, and show that the GP model performs accurately, in comparison with the other existing methodologies, thus proving to be a good tactical and robust model for health authorities to plan their course of action.
In order to maintain consistent quality of service, computer network engineers face the task of monitoring the traffic fluctuations on the individual links making up the network. However, due to resource constraints and limited access, it is not possible to directly measure all the links. Starting with a physically interpretable probabilistic model of network-wide traffic, we demonstrate how an expensively obtained set of measurements may be used to develop a network-specific model of the traffic across the network. This model may then be used in conjunction with easily obtainable measurements to provide more accurate prediction than is possible with only the inexpensive measurements. We show that the model, once learned may be used for the same network for many different periods of traffic. Finally, we show an application of the prediction technique to create relevant control charts for detection and isolation of shifts in network traffic.
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