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Register a new userThe Multivariate Generalised von Mises distribution: Inference and applications
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Added by
Alexandre Navarro
Publication date
2016
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Circular variables arise in a multitude of data-modelling contexts ranging from robotics to the social sciences, but they have been largely overlooked by the machine learning community. This paper partially redresses this imbalance by extending some standard probabilistic modelling tools to the circular domain. First we introduce a new multivariate distribution over circular variables, called the multivariate Generalised von Mises (mGvM) distribution. This distribution can be constructed by restricting and renormalising a general multivariate Gaussian distribution to the unit hyper-torus. Previously proposed multivariate circular distributions are shown to be special cases of this construction. Second, we introduce a new probabilistic model for circular regression, that is inspired by Gaussian Processes, and a method for probabilistic principal component analysis with circular hidden variables. These models can leverage standard modelling tools (e.g. covariance functions and methods for automatic relevance determination). Third, we show that the posterior distribution in these models is a mGvM distribution which enables development of an efficient variational free-energy scheme for performing approximate inference and approximate maximum-likelihood learning.
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Deheuvels [J. Multivariate Anal. 11 (1981) 102--113] and Genest and R{e}millard [Test 13 (2004) 335--369] have shown that powerful rank tests of multivariate independence can be based on combinations of asymptotically independent Cram{e}r--von Mises statistics derived from a M{o}bius decomposition of the empirical copula process. A result on the large-sample behavior of this process under contiguous sequences of alternatives is used here to give a representation of the limiting distribution of such test statistics and to compute their relative local asymptotic efficiency. Local power curves and asymptotic relative efficiencies are compared under familiar classes of copula alternatives.
Robust estimation of location and concentration parameters for the von Mises-Fisher distribution is discussed. A key reparametrisation is achieved by expressing the two parameters as one vector on the Euclidean space. With this representation, we first show that maximum likelihood estimator for the von Mises-Fisher distribution is not robust in some situations. Then we propose two families of robust estimators which can be derived as minimisers of two density power divergences. The presented families enable us to estimate both location and concentration parameters simultaneously. Some properties of the estimators are explored. Simple iterative algorithms are suggested to find the estimates numerically. A comparison with the existing robust estimators is given as well as discussion on difference and similarity between the two proposed estimators. A simulation study is made to evaluate finite sample performance of the estimators. We consider a sea star dataset and discuss the selection of the tuning parameters and outlier detection.
This work develops rigorous theoretical basis for the fact that deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) is an effective tool for high-dimensional variable selection with rigorous uncertainty quantification. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric theorems to show that a properly configured deep BNN (1) learns the variable importance effectively in high dimensions, and its learning rate can sometimes break the curse of dimensionality. (2) BNNs uncertainty quantification for variable importance is rigorous, in the sense that its 95% credible intervals for variable importance indeed covers the truth 95% of the time (i.e., the Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) phenomenon). The theoretical results suggest a simple variable selection algorithm based on the BNNs credible intervals. Extensive simulation confirms the theoretical findings and shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing classic and neural-network-based variable selection methods, particularly in high dimensions.
We revisit empirical Bayes in the absence of a tractable likelihood function, as is typical in scientific domains relying on computer simulations. We investigate how the empirical Bayesian can make use of neural density estimators first to use all noise-corrupted observations to estimate a prior or source distribution over uncorrupted samples, and then to perform single-observation posterior inference using the fitted source distribution. We propose an approach based on the direct maximization of the log-marginal likelihood of the observations, examining both biased and de-biased estimators, and comparing to variational approaches. We find that, up to symmetries, a neural empirical Bayes approach recovers ground truth source distributions. With the learned source distribution in hand, we show the applicability to likelihood-free inference and examine the quality of the resulting posterior estimates. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of Neural Empirical Bayes on an inverse problem from collider physics.
Let $F_N$ and $F$ be the empirical and limiting spectral distributions of an $Ntimes N$ Wigner matrix. The Cram{e}r-von Mises (CvM) statistic is a classical goodness-of-fit statistic that characterizes the distance between $F_N$ and $F$ in $ell^2$-norm. In this paper, we consider a mesoscopic approximation of the CvM statistic for Wigner matrices, and derive its limiting distribution. In the appendix, we also give the limiting distribution of the CvM statistic (without approximation) for the toy model CUE.
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