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Register a new userAdaptive Ensemble Learning with Confidence Bounds
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Extracting actionable intelligence from distributed, heterogeneous, correlated and high-dimensional data sources requires run-time processing and learning both locally and globally. In the last decade, a large number of meta-learning techniques have been proposed in which local learners make online predictions based on their locally-collected data instances, and feed these predictions to an ensemble learner, which fuses them and issues a global prediction. However, most of these works do not provide performance guarantees or, when they do, these guarantees are asymptotic. None of these existing works provide confidence estimates about the issued predictions or rate of learning guarantees for the ensemble learner. In this paper, we provide a systematic ensemble learning method called Hedged Bandits, which comes with both long run (asymptotic) and short run (rate of learning) performance guarantees. Moreover, our approach yields performance guarantees with respect to the optimal local prediction strategy, and is also able to adapt its predictions in a data-driven manner. We illustrate the performance of Hedged Bandits in the context of medical informatics and show that it outperforms numerous online and offline ensemble learning methods.
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Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assigns to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for variations in base model accuracy across subgroups, nor (2) provide uncertainty estimates for the ensemble prediction, which could result in mis-calibrated (i.e. precise but biased) predictions that could in turn negatively impact the algorithm performance in real-word applications. In this work, we present an adaptive, probabilistic approach to ensemble learning using dependent tail-free process as ensemble weight prior. Given input feature $mathbf{x}$, our method optimally combines base models based on their predictive accuracy in the feature space $mathbf{x} in mathcal{X}$, and provides interpretable uncertainty estimates both in model selection and in ensemble prediction. To encourage scalable and calibrated inference, we derive a structured variational inference algorithm that jointly minimize KL objective and the models calibration score (i.e. Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)). We illustrate the utility of our method on both a synthetic nonlinear function regression task, and on the real-world application of spatio-temporal integration of particle pollution prediction models in New England.
Recent studies on the memorization effects of deep neural networks on noisy labels show that the networks first fit the correctly-labeled training samples before memorizing the mislabeled samples. Motivated by this early-learning phenomenon, we propose a novel method to prevent memorization of the mislabeled samples. Unlike the existing approaches which use the model output to identify or ignore the mislabeled samples, we introduce an indicator branch to the original model and enable the model to produce a confidence value for each sample. The confidence values are incorporated in our loss function which is learned to assign large confidence values to correctly-labeled samples and small confidence values to mislabeled samples. We also propose an auxiliary regularization term to further improve the robustness of the model. To improve the performance, we gradually correct the noisy labels with a well-designed target estimation strategy. We provide the theoretical analysis and conduct the experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating that our approach achieves comparable results to the state-of-the-art methods.
The dynamic ensemble selection of classifiers is an effective approach for processing label-imbalanced data classifications. However, such a technique is prone to overfitting, owing to the lack of regularization methods and the dependence of the aforementioned technique on local geometry. In this study, focusing on binary imbalanced data classification, a novel dynamic ensemble method, namely adaptive ensemble of classifiers with regularization (AER), is proposed, to overcome the stated limitations. The method solves the overfitting problem through implicit regularization. Specifically, it leverages the properties of stochastic gradient descent to obtain the solution with the minimum norm, thereby achieving regularization; furthermore, it interpolates the ensemble weights by exploiting the global geometry of data to further prevent overfitting. According to our theoretical proofs, the seemingly complicated AER paradigm, in addition to its regularization capabilities, can actually reduce the asymptotic time and memory complexities of several other algorithms. We evaluate the proposed AER method on seven benchmark imbalanced datasets from the UCI machine learning repository and one artificially generated GMM-based dataset with five variations. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the major existing algorithms based on multiple metrics in most cases, and two hypothesis tests (McNemars and Wilcoxon tests) verify the statistical significance further. In addition, the proposed method has other preferred properties such as special advantages in dealing with highly imbalanced data, and it pioneers the research on the regularization for dynamic ensemble methods.
Constrained Markov Decision Processes are a class of stochastic decision problems in which the decision maker must select a policy that satisfies auxiliary cost constraints. This paper extends upper confidence reinforcement learning for settings in which the reward function and the constraints, described by cost functions, are unknown a priori but the transition kernel is known. Such a setting is well-motivated by a number of applications including exploration of unknown, potentially unsafe, environments. We present an algorithm C-UCRL and show that it achieves sub-linear regret ($ O(T^{frac{3}{4}}sqrt{log(T/delta)})$) with respect to the reward while satisfying the constraints even while learning with probability $1-delta$. Illustrative examples are provided.
Recent researches have shown that deep forest ensemble achieves a considerable increase in classification accuracy compared with the general ensemble learning methods, especially when the training set is small. In this paper, we take advantage of deep forest ensemble and introduce the Dense Adaptive Cascade Forest (daForest). Our model has a better performance than the original Cascade Forest with three major features: first, we apply SAMME.R boosting algorithm to improve the performance of the model. It guarantees the improvement as the number of layers increases. Second, our model connects each layer to the subsequent ones in a feed-forward fashion, which enhances the capability of the model to resist performance degeneration. Third, we add a hyper-parameters optimization layer before the first classification layer, making our model spend less time to set up and find the optimal hyper-parameters. Experimental results show that daForest performs significantly well, and in some cases, even outperforms neural networks and achieves state-of-the-art results.
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