Influenza viruses enter a cell via endocytosis after binding to the surface. During the endosomal journey, acidification triggers a conformational change of the virus spike protein hemagglutinin (HA) that results in escape of the viral genome from the endosome to the cytoplasm. A quantitative understanding of the processes involved in HA mediated fusion with the endosome is still missing. We develop here a stochastic model to estimate the change of conformation of HAs inside the endosome nanodomain. Using a Markov-jump process to model the arrival of protons to HA binding sites, we compute the kinetics of their accumulation and the mean first time for HAs to be activated. This analysis reveals that HA proton binding sites possess a high chemical barrier, ensuring a stability of the spike protein at sub-acidic pH. Finally, we predict that activating more than 3 adjacent HAs is necessary to prevent a premature fusion.
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