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Register a new userA review of East Asian reports of aurorae and comets circa AD 775
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Jesse Chapman
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Given that a strong 14C variation in AD 775 has recently been suggested to be due to the largest solar flare ever recorded in history, it is relevant to investigate whether celestial events observed around that time may have been aurorae, possibly even very strong aurorae, or otherwise related to the 14C variation (e.g. a suggested comet impact with Earths atmosphere). We critically review several celestial observations from AD 757 to the end of the 770s, most of which were previously considered to be true, and in some cases, strong aurorae; we discuss in detail the East Asian records and their wording. We conclude that probably none among the events after AD 770 was actually an aurora, including the event in AD 776 Jan, which was misdated for AD 774 or 775; the observed white qi phenomenon that happened above the moon in the south-east was most probably a halo effect near the full moon - too late in any case to be related to the 14C variation in AD 774/5. There is another report of a similar (or identical) white qi phenomenon above the moon, reported just before a comet observation and dated to AD 776 Jan; the reported comet observed by the Chinese was misdated to AD 776, but actually sighted in AD 767. Our critical review of East Asian reports of aurorae circa AD 775 shows some very likely true Chinese auroral displays observed and reported for AD 762; there were also several events prior to AD 771 that may have been aurorae but are questionable.
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The interpretation of the strong 14-C variation around AD 775 as one (or several) solar super-flare(s) by, e.g., Usoskin et al. (2013) is based on alleged aurora sightings in the mid AD 770s in Europe: A red cross/crucifix in AD 773/4/6 from the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle, inflamed shields in AD 776 (both listed in the aurora catalogue of Link 1962), and riders on white horses in AD 773 (newly proposed as aurora in Usoskin et al. 2013), the two latter from the Royal Frankish Annals. We discuss the reports about these three sightings in detail here. We can show that all three were halo displays: The red cross or crucifix is formed by the horizontal arc and a vertical pillar of light (either with the Sun during sunset or with the moon after sunset); the inflamed shields and the riders on white horses were both two mock suns, especially the latter narrated in form of a Christian adaptation of the antique dioscuri motive. While the latter event took place early in AD 774 (dated AD 773 in Usoskin et al. 2013), the two other sightings have to be dated AD 776, i.e. anyway too late for being in connection with a 14-C rise that started before AD 775. We also sketch the ideological background of those sightings and there were many similar reports throughout that time. In addition, we present a small drawing of a lunar halo display with horizontal arc and vertical pillar forming a cross for shortly later, namely AD 806 June 4, the night of full moon, also from the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle; we also show historic drawings of solar and lunar halo crosses from G. Kirch and Helevius and a modern photograph.
The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of 14-C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the 14-C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14-C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing 14-C, there is a series of strong short-term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid 14-C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects, (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise -- very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. (d) Furthermore, we can show that the strong change at AD 1795 happened after a pair of two packages of four Schwabe cycles with certain hemispheric leadership (each package consists of two Gnevyshev-Ohl pairs, respectively two Hale-Babcock pairs). We show with several additional arguments that the rise around AD 775 was not that special. ...
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