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Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and superheavy elements, or to describe the structure of nuclei far from stability. While on-going efforts seek to better root nuclear DFT in the theory of nuclear forces [see Duguet et al., this issue], energy functionals remain semi-phenomenological constructions that depend on a set of parameters adjusted to experimental data in finite nuclei. In this paper, we review recent efforts to quantify the related uncertainties, and propagate them to model predictions. In particular, we cover the topics of parameter estimation for inverse problems, statistical analysis of model uncertainties and Bayesian inference methods. Illustrative examples are taken from the literature.
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Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.
The uncertainty quantifications of theoretical results are of great importance to make meaningful comparisons of those results with experimental data and to make predictions in experimentally unknown regions. By quantifying uncertainties, one can make more solid statements about, e.g., origins of discrepancy in some quantities between theory and experiment. We propose a novel method for uncertainty quantification for the effective interactions of nuclear shell-model calculations as an example. The effective interaction is specified by a set of parameters, and its probability distribution in the multi-dimensional parameter space is considered. This enables us to quantify the agreement with experimental data in a statistical manner and the resulting confidence intervals show unexpectedly large variations. Moreover, we point out that a large deviation of the confidence interval for the energy in shell-model calculations from the corresponding experimental data can be used as an indicator of some exotic property, e.g. alpha clustering, etc. Other possible applications and impacts are also discussed.
The nuclear symmetry energy represents a response to the neutron-proton asymmetry. In this survey we discuss various aspects of symmetry energy in the framework of nuclear density functional theory, considering both non-relativistic and relativistic self-consistent mean-field realizations side-by-side. Key observables pertaining to bulk nucleonic matter and finite nuclei are reviewed. Constraints on the symmetry energy and correlations between observables and symmetry-energy parameters, using statistical covariance analysis, are investigated. Perspectives for future work are outlined in the context of ongoing experimental efforts.
The neutron and proton drip lines represent the limits of the nuclear landscape. While the proton drip line is measured experimentally up to rather high $Z$-values, the location of the neutron drip line for absolute majority of elements is based on theoretical predictions which involve extreme extrapolations. The first ever systematic investigation of the location of the proton and neutron drip lines in the covariant density functional theory has been performed by employing a set of the state-of-the-art parametrizations. Calculated theoretical uncertainties in the position of two-neutron drip line are compared with those obtained in non-relativistic DFT calculations. Shell effects drastically affect the shape of two-neutron drip line. In particular, model uncertainties in the definition of two-neutron drip line at $Zsim 54, N=126$ and $Zsim 82, N=184$ are very small due to the impact of spherical shell closures at N=126 and 184.
The soliton existence in sub-atomic many-nucleon systems is discussed. In many nucleon dynamics represented by the nuclear time-dependent density functional formalism, much attention is paid to energy and mass dependence of the soliton existence. In conclusion, the existence of nuclear soliton is clarified if the temperature of nuclear system is from 10 to 30 MeV. With respect to the mass dependence $^{4}$He and $^{16}$O are suggested to be the candidates for the self-bound states exhibiting the property of nuclear soliton.
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