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Register a new userTornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modeling with a semi-Markov approach
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We propose a statistical approach to tornadoes modeling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modeling the tornadoes intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornadoes intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornadoes intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornadoes occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. he paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things.
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We analyse the time series of solar irradiance measurements using chaos theory. The False Nearest Neighbour method (FNN), one of the most common methods of chaotic analysis is used for the analysis. One year data from the weather station located at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore with a temporal resolution of $1$ minute is employed for the study. The data is sampled at $60$ minutes interval and $30$ minutes interval for the analysis using the FNN method. Our experiments revealed that the optimum dimension required for solar irradiance is $4$ for both samplings. This indicates that a minimum of $4$ dimensions is required for embedding the data for the best representation of input. This study on obtaining the embedding dimension of solar irradiance measurement will greatly assist in fixing the number of previous data required for solar irradiance forecasting.
The statistical behavior of weather variables of Antofagasta is described, especially the daily data of air as temperature, pressure and relative humidity measured at 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00. In this article, we use a time series deseasonalization technique, Q-Q plot, skewness, kurtosis and the Pearson correlation coefficient. We found that the distributions of the records are symmetrical and have positive kurtosis, so they have heavy tails. In addition, the variables are highly autocorrelated, extending up to one year in the case of pressure and temperature.
Detailed empirical studies of publicly traded business firms have established that the standard deviation of annual sales growth rates decreases with increasing firm sales as a power law, and that the sales growth distribution is non-Gaussian with slowly decaying tails. To explain these empirical facts, a theory is developed that incorporates both the fluctuations of a single firms sales and the statistical differences among many firms. The theory reproduces both the scaling in the standard deviation and the non-Gaussian distribution of growth rates. Earlier models reproduce the same empirical features by splitting firms into somewhat ambiguous subunits; by decomposing total sales into individual transactions, this ambiguity is removed. The theory yields verifiable predictions and accommodates any form of business organization within a firm. Furthermore, because transactions are fundamental to economic activity at all scales, the theory can be extended to all levels of the economy, from individual products to multinational corporations.
Application of root density estimator to problems of statistical data analysis is demonstrated. Four sets of basis functions based on Chebyshev-Hermite, Laguerre, Kravchuk and Charlier polynomials are considered. The sets may be used for numerical analysis in problems of reconstructing statistical distributions by experimental data. Based on the root approach to reconstruction of statistical distributions and quantum states, we study a family of statistical distributions in which the probability density is the product of a Gaussian distribution and an even-degree polynomial. Examples of numerical modeling are given. The results of present paper are of interest for the development of tomography of quantum states and processes.
We study the self-organization of the consonant inventories through a complex network approach. We observe that the distribution of occurrence as well as cooccurrence of the consonants across languages follow a power-law behavior. The co-occurrence network of consonants exhibits a high clustering coefficient. We propose four novel synthesis models for these networks (each of which is a refinement of the earlier) so as to successively match with higher accuracy (a) the above mentioned topological properties as well as (b) the linguistic property of feature economy exhibited by the consonant inventories. We conclude by arguing that a possible interpretation of this mechanism of network growth is the process of child language acquisition. Such models essentially increase our understanding of the structure of languages that is influenced by their evolutionary dynamics and this, in turn, can be extremely useful for building future NLP applications.
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