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Register a new userThe production of information in the attention economy
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Online traces of human activity offer novel opportunities to study the dynamics of complex knowledge exchange networks, and in particular how the relationship between demand and supply of information is mediated by competition for our limited individual attention. The emergent patterns of collective attention determine what new information is generated and consumed. Can we measure the relationship between demand and supply for new information about a topic? Here we propose a normalization method to compare attention bursts statistics across topics that have an heterogeneous distribution of attention. Through analysis of a massive dataset on traffic to Wikipedia, we find that the production of new knowledge is associated to significant shifts of collective attention, which we take as a proxy for its demand. What we observe is consistent with a scenario in which the allocation of attention toward a topic stimulates the demand for information about it, and in turn the supply of further novel information. Our attempt to quantify demand and supply of information, and our finding about their temporal ordering, may lead to the development of the fundamental laws of the attention economy, and a better understanding of the social exchange of knowledge in online and offline information networks.
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Over the past 200 years, rising rates of information proliferation have created new environments for information competition and, consequently, new selective forces on information evolution. These forces influence the information diet available to consumers, who in turn choose what to consume, creating a feedback process similar to that seen in many ecosystems. As a first step towards understanding this relationship, we apply animal foraging models of diet choice to describe the evolution of long and short form media in response to human preferences for maximising utility rate. The model describes an increase in information rate (i.e., entropy) in response to information proliferation, as well as differences in entropy between short-form and long-form media (such as social media and books, respectively). We find evidence for a steady increase in word entropy in diverse media categories since 1900, as well as an accelerated entropy increase in short-form media. Overall the evidence suggests an increasingly competitive battle for our attention that is having a lasting influence on the evolution of language and communication systems.
We build a model of information cascades on feed-based networks, taking into account the finite attention span of users, message generation rates and message forwarding rates. Using this model, we study through simulations, the effect of the extent of user attention on the probability that the cascade becomes viral. In analogy with a branching process, we estimate the branching factor associated with the cascade process for different attention spans and different forwarding probabilities, and demonstrate that beyond a certain attention span, critical forwarding probabilities exist that constitute a threshold after which cascades can become viral. The critical forwarding probabilities have an inverse relationship with the attention span. Next, we develop a semi-analytical approach for our model, that allows us determine the branching factor for given values of message generation rates, message forwarding rates and attention spans. The branching factors obtained using this analytical approach show good agreement with those obtained through simulations. Finally, we analyze an event specific dataset obtained from Twitter, and show that estimated branching factors correlate well with the cascade size distributions associated with distinct hashtags.
Although the many forms of modern social media have become major channels for the dissemination of information, they are becoming overloaded because of the rapidly-expanding number of information feeds. We analyze the expanding user-generated content in Sina Weibo, the largest micro-blog site in China, and find evidence that popular messages often follow a mechanism that differs from that found in the spread of disease, in contrast to common believe. In this mechanism, an individual with more friends needs more repeated exposures to spread further the information. Moreover, our data suggest that in contrast to epidemics, for certain messages the chance of an individual to share the message is proportional to the fraction of its neighbours who shared it with him/her. Thus the greater the number of friends an individual has the greater the number of repeated contacts needed to spread the message, which is a result of competition for attention. We model this process using a fractional susceptible infected recovered (FSIR) model, where the infection probability of a node is proportional to its fraction of infected neighbors. Our findings have dramatic implications for information contagion. For example, using the FSIR model we find that real-world social networks have a finite epidemic threshold. This is in contrast to the zero threshold that conventional wisdom derives from disease epidemic models. This means that when individuals are overloaded with excess information feeds, the information either reaches out the population if it is above the critical epidemic threshold, or it would never be well received, leading to only a handful of information contents that can be widely spread throughout the population.
Recent election surprises and regime changes have left the impression that politics has become more fast-moving and unstable. While modern politics does seem more volatile, there is little systematic evidence to support this claim. This paper seeks to address this gap in knowledge by reporting data over the last seventy years using public opinion polls and traditional media data from the UK and Germany. These countries are good cases to study because both have experienced considerable changes in electoral behaviour and have new political parties during the time period studied. We measure volatility in public opinion and in media coverage using approaches from information theory, tracking the change in word-use patterns across over 700,000 articles. Our preliminary analysis suggests an increase in the number of opinion issues over time and a growth in lack of predictability of the media series from the 1970s.
Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors.
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