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Register a new userSearching for bias and correlations in a Bayesian way
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Caroline Heneka
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A range of Bayesian tools has become widely used in cosmological data treatment and parameter inference (see Kunz, Bassett & Hlozek (2007), Trotta (2008), Amendola, Marra & Quartin (2013)). With increasingly big datasets and higher precision, tools that enable us to further enhance the accuracy of our measurements gain importance. Here we present an approach based on internal robustness, introduced in Amendola, Marra & Quartin (2013) and adopted in Heneka, Marra & Amendola (2014), to identify biased subsets of data and hidden correlation in a model independent way.
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Gamma-ray bursts are usually classified through their high-energy emission into short-duration and long-duration bursts, which presumably reflect two different types of progenitors. However, it has been shown on statistical grounds that a third, intermediate population is needed in this classification scheme, although an extensive study of the properties of this class has so far not been done. The large amount of follow-up studies generated during the Swift era allows us to have a suficient sample to attempt a study of this third population through the properties of their prompt emission and their afterglows. Our study is focused on a sample of GRBs observed by Swift during its first four years of operation. The sample contains those bursts with measured redshift since this allows us to derive intrinsic properties. Intermediate bursts are less energetic and have dimmer afterglows than long GRBs, especially when considering the X-ray light curves, which are on average one order of magnitude fainter than long bursts. There is a less significant trend in the redshift distribution that places intermediate bursts closer than long bursts. Except for this, intermediate bursts show similar properties to long bursts. In particular, they follow the Epeak vs. Eiso correlation and have, on average, positive spectral lags with a distribution similar to that of long bursts. Like long GRBs, they normally have an associated supernova, although some intermediate bursts have shown no supernova component. This study shows that intermediate bursts are different from short bursts and, in spite of sharing many properties with long bursts, there are some differences between them as well. We suggest that the physical difference between intermediate and long bursts could be that for the first the ejecta are thin shells while for the latter they are thick shells.
Since their serendipitous discovery, Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) have garnered a great deal of attention from both observers and theorists. A new class of radio telescopes with wide fields of view have enabled a rapid accumulation of FRB observations, confirming that FRBs originate from cosmological distances. The high occurrence rate of FRBs and the development of new instruments to observe them create opportunities for FRBs to be utilized for a host of astrophysical and cosmological studies. We focus on the rare, and as yet undetected, subset of FRBs that undergo repeated bursts and are strongly gravitationally lensed by intervening structure. An extremely precise timing of burst arrival times is possible for strongly lensed repeating FRBs, and we show how this timing precision enables the search for long wavelength gravitational waves, including those sourced by supermassive black hole binary systems. The timing of burst arrival for strongly lensed repeating FRBs is sensitive to gravitational wave sources near the FRB host galaxy, which may lie at cosmological distances and would therefore be extremely challenging to detect by other means. Timing of strongly lensed FRBs can also be combined with pulsar timing array data to search for correlated time delays characteristic of gravitational waves passing through the Earth.
From the set of nearly 500 spectroscopically confirmed type~Ia supernovae and around 10,000 unconfirmed candidates from SDSS-II, we select a subset of 108 confirmed SNe Ia with well-observed early-time light curves to search for signatures from shock interaction of the supernova with a companion star. No evidence for shock emission is seen; however, the cadence and photometric noise could hide a weak shock signal. We simulate shocked light curves using SN Ia templates and a simple, Gaussian shock model to emulate the noise properties of the SDSS-II sample and estimate the detectability of the shock interaction signal as a function of shock amplitude, shock width, and shock fraction. We find no direct evidence for shock interaction in the rest-frame $B$-band, but place an upper limit on the shock amplitude at 9% of supernova peak flux ($M_B > -16.6$ mag). If the single degenerate channel dominates type~Ia progenitors, this result constrains the companion stars to be less than about 6 $M_{odot}$ on the main sequence, and strongly disfavors red giant companions.
In this paper we report a systematic search for an emission line around 3.5 keV in the spectrum of the Cosmic X-ray Background using a total of $sim$10 Ms Chandra observations towards the COSMOS Legacy and CDFS survey fields. We find a marginal evidence of a feature at an energy of $sim$3.51 keV with a significance of 2.5-3 $sigma$, depending on the choice of the statistical treatment. The line intensity is best fit at $8.8 pm {2.9}times10^{-7}$ ph cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ when using a simple $Deltachi^2$ or $10.2 ^{+0.2}_{-0.4} times10^{-7}$ ph cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ when MCMC is used. Based on our knowledge of $Chandra$, and the reported detection of the line by other instruments, an instrumental origin for the line remains unlikely. We cannot though rule out a statistical fluctuation and in that case our results provide a 3$sigma$ upper limit at 1.85$times$10$^{-6}$ ph cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$. We discuss the interpretation of this observed line in terms of the iron line background; S {sc XVI} charge exchange as well as potentially from sterile neutrino decay. We note that our detection is consistent with previous measurements of this line toward the Galactic center, and can be modeled as the result of sterile neutrino decay from the Milky Way for the dark matter distribution modeled as an NFW profile. For this case, we estimate a mass m$_{ u}sim$7.01 keV and a mixing angle sin$^2$(2$theta$)= 0.83--2.75 $times 10^{-10}$. These derived values are in agreement with independent estimates from galaxy clusters; the Galactic center and M31.
As massive black holes (MBHs) grow from lower-mass seeds, it is natural to expect that a leftover population of progenitor MBHs should also exist in the present universe. Dwarf galaxies undergo a quiet merger history, and as a result, we expect that dwarfs observed in the local Universe retain some `memory of the original seed mass distribution. Consequently, the properties of MBHs in nearby dwarf galaxies may provide clean indicators of the efficiency of MBH formation. In order to examine the properties of MBHs in dwarf galaxies, we evolve different MBH populations within a Milky Way halo from high-redshift to today. We consider two plausible MBH formation mechanisms: `massive seeds formed via gas-dynamical instabilities and a Population III remnant seed model. `Massive seeds have larger masses than PopIII remnants, but form in rarer hosts. We dynamically evolve all halos merging with the central system, taking into consideration how the interaction modifies the satellites, stripping their outer mass layers. We compute different properties of the MBH population hosted in these satellites. We find that for the most part MBHs retain the original mass, thus providing a clear indication of what the properties of the seeds were. We derive the black hole occupation fraction (BHOF) of the satellite population at z=0. MBHs generated as `massive seeds have large masses that would favour their identification, but their typical BHOF is always below 40 per cent and decreases to less than per cent for observed dwarf galaxy sizes. In contrast, Population III remnants have a higher BHOF, but their masses have not grown much since formation, inhibiting their detection.
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