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Register a new userData assimilation of dead fuel moisture observations from remote automated weather stations
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Fuel moisture has a major influence on the behavior of wildland fires and is an important underlying factor in fire risk assessment. We propose a method to assimilate dead fuel moisture content observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) into a time-lag fuel moisture model. RAWS are spatially sparse and a mechanism is needed to estimate fuel moisture content at locations potentially distant from observational stations. This is arranged using a trend surface model (TSM), which allows us to account for the effects of topography and atmospheric state on the spatial variability of fuel moisture content. At each location of interest, the TSM provides a pseudo-observation, which is assimilated via Kalman filtering. The method is tested with the time-lag fuel moisture model in the coupled weather-fire code WRF-SFIRE on 10-hr fuel moisture content observations from Colorado RAWS in 2013. We show using leave-one-out testing that the TSM compares favorably with inverse squared distance interpolation as used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System. Finally, we demonstrate that the data assimilation method is able to improve fuel moisture content estimates in unobserved fuel classes.
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Microwave remote sensors mounted on center pivot irrigation systems provide a feasible approach to obtain soil moisture information, in the form of water content maps, for the implementation of closed-loop irrigation. Major challenges such as significant time delays in the soil moisture measurements, the inability of the sensors to provide soil moisture information in instances where the center pivot is stationary, and the inability of the sensors to provide soil moisture information in the root zone reduce the usability of the water content maps in the effective implementation of closed-loop irrigation. In this paper, we seek to address the aforementioned challenges and consequently describe a water content map construction procedure that is suitable for the implementation of closed-loop irrigation. Firstly, we propose the cylindrical coordinates version of the Richards equation (field model) which naturally models fields equipped with a center pivot irrigation system. Secondly, measurements obtained from the microwave sensors are assimilated into the field model using the extended Kalman filter to form an information fusion system, which will provide frequent soil moisture estimates and predictions in the form of moisture content maps. The utility of the proposed information fusion system is first investigated with simulated microwave sensor measurements. The information fusion system is then applied to a real large-scale agriculture field where we demonstrate the its ability to address the challenges. Three performance evaluation criteria are used to validate the soil moisture estimates and predictions provided by the proposed information fusion system.
The use of data assimilation technique to identify optimal topography is discussed in frames of time-dependent motion governed by non-linear barotropic ocean model. Assimilation of artificially generated data allows to measure the influence of various error sources and to classify the impact of noise that is present in observational data and model parameters. The choice of assimilation window is discussed. Assimilating noisy data with longer windows provides higher accuracy of identified topography. The topography identified once by data assimilation can be successfully used for other model runs that start from other initial conditions and are situated in other parts of the models attractor.
The interaction between the Earths surface and the atmosphere plays a key role in the initiation of cumulus convection. Over the land surface, a necessary boundary condition to consider for resolving land-atmosphere interactions is soil moisture. The aim in the study is twofold. One, through object oriented and traditional verification techniques determine how higher resolution soil moisture initial conditions influences the prediction of the location and timing of convective initiation (CI) within a convective permitting, operational NWP model over South Africa. Two, to study the modelled CI-soil moisture relationship during real afternoon thunderstorm events. The study reports the results from 66 Unified Model simulations (at 4.4km grid resolution) for nine summer afternoon CI events during synoptically benign conditions over South Africa. The higher resolution soil moisture conditions reduce centroid distance between observed and forecast storms on average by 7km (9 percent improvement), with the most decrease in centroid distance occurring at the shortest lead times, by 12km. Most improvement in location error occurs in the zonal directional. However, little to no difference is found in the timing of CI, most likely attributable to the dominant effect of model grid size on CI timing, overshadowing the influence from soil moisture anomalies. Probability of CI is highest over dry and moderate soils and areas along distinct soil moisture gradients. The conclusion is that modelled CI over South Africa preferentially occurs on the periphery of wet soil moisture patches, where there is increased surface convergence of wind and higher sensible heat flux.
Solar activity, ranging from the background solar wind to energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is the main driver of the conditions in the interplanetary space and in the terrestrial space environment, known as space weather. A better understanding of the Sun-Earth connection carries enormous potential to mitigate negative space weather effects with economic and social benefits. Effective space weather forecasting relies on data and models. In this paper, we discuss some of the most used space weather models, and propose suitable locations for data gathering with space weather purposes. We report on the application of textit{Representer analysis (RA)} and textit{Domain of Influence (DOI) analysis} to three models simulating different stages of the Sun-Earth connection: the OpenGGCM and Tsyganenko models, focusing on solar wind - magnetosphere interaction, and the PLUTO model, used to simulate CME propagation in interplanetary space. Our analysis is promising for space weather purposes for several reasons. First, we obtain quantitative information about the most useful locations of observation points, such as solar wind monitors. For example, we find that the absolute values of the DOI are extremely low in the magnetospheric plasma sheet. Since knowledge of that particular sub-system is crucial for space weather, enhanced monitoring of the region would be most beneficial. Second, we are able to better characterize the models. Although the current analysis focuses on spatial rather than temporal correlations, we find that time-independent models are less useful for Data Assimilation activities than time-dependent models. Third, we take the first steps towards the ambitious goal of identifying the most relevant heliospheric parameters for modelling CME propagation in the heliosphere, their arrival time, and their geoeffectiveness at Earth.
A formulation is developed to assimilate ocean-wave data into the Numerical Flow Analysis (NFA) code. NFA is a Cartesian-based implicit Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) code with Volume of Fluid (VOF) interface capturing. The sequential assimilation of data into NFA permits detailed analysis of ocean-wave physics with higher bandwidths than is possible using either other formulations, such as High-Order Spectral (HOS) methods, or field measurements. A framework is provided for assimilating the wavy and vortical portions of the flow. Nudging is used to assimilate wave data at low wavenumbers, and the wave data at high wavenumbers form naturally through nonlinear interactions, wave breaking, and wind forcing. Similarly, the vertical profiles of the mean vortical flow in the wind and the wind drift are nudged, and the turbulent fluctuations are allowed to form naturally. As a demonstration, the results of a HOS of a JONSWAP wave spectrum are assimilated to study short-crested seas in equilibrium with the wind. Log profiles are assimilated for the mean wind and the mean wind drift. The results of the data assimilations are (1) Windrows form under the action of breaking waves and the formation of swirling jets; (2) The crosswind and cross drift meander; (3) Swirling jets are organized into Langmuir cells in the upper oceanic boundary layer; (4) Swirling jets are organized into wind streaks in the lower atmospheric boundary layer; (5) The length and time scales of the Langmuir cells and the wind streaks increase away from the free surface; (6) Wave growth is very dynamic especially for breaking waves; (7) The effects of the turbulent fluctuations in the upper ocean on wave growth need to be considered together with the turbulent fluctuations in the lower atmosphere; and (8) Extreme events are most likely when waves are not in equilibrium.
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