Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userProbability of Inconsistencies in Theory Revision: A multi-agent model for updating logically interconnected beliefs under bounded confidence
118
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We present a model for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents who update their belief states by averaging (in a specified way) the belief states of other agents in the community. The agents in our model have a rich belief state, involving multiple independent issues which are interrelated in such a way that they form a theory of the world. Our main goal is to calculate the probability for an agent to end up in an inconsistent belief state due to updating (in the given way). To that end, an analytical expression is given and evaluated numerically, both exactly and using statistical sampling. It is shown that, under the assumptions of our model, an agent always has a probability of less than 2% of ending up in an inconsistent belief state. Moreover, this probability can be made arbitrarily small by increasing the number of independent issues the agents have to judge or by increasing the group size. A real-world situation to which this model applies is a group of experts participating in a Delphi-study.
rate research
Read More
In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a left clique and a right clique. In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties.
The communication process in a situation of emergency is discussed within the Scheff theory of shame and pride. The communication involves messages from media and from other persons. Three strategies are considered: selfish (to contact friends), collective (to join other people) and passive (to do nothing). We show that the pure selfish strategy cannot be evolutionarily stable. The main result is that the community structure is statistically meaningful only if the interpersonal communication is weak.
The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of discussion participants are chosen at random and their opinions get closer to each other if they are within a fixed tolerance level. We modify the selection rule of the discussion partners: there is an enhanced probability to choose individuals whose opinions are already close to each other, thus mimicking the behavior of online media which suggest interaction with similar peers. As a result we observe: a) an increased tendency towards polarization, which emerges also in conditions where the original model would predict convergence, and b) a dramatic slowing down of the speed at which the convergence at the asymptotic state is reached, which makes the system highly unstable. Polarization is augmented by a fragmented initial population.
Interconnected networks are mathematical representation of systems where two or more simple networks are coupled to each other. Depending on the coupling weight between the two components, the interconnected network can function in two regimes: one where the two networks are structurally distinguishable, and one where they are not. The coupling threshold--denoting this structural transition--is one of the most crucial concepts in interconnected networks. Yet, current information about the coupling threshold is limited. This letter presents an analytical expression for the exact value of the coupling threshold and outlines network interrelation implications.
In recent years, opinion dynamics has received an increasing attention, and various models have been introduced and evaluated mainly by simulation. In this study, we introduce and study a dynamical model inspired by the so-called `bounded confidence approach where voters engaged in an electoral decision with two options are influenced by individuals sharing an opinion similar to their own. This model allows one to capture salient features of the evolution of opinions and results in final clusters of voters. The model is nonlinear and discontinuous. We provide a detailed study of the model, including a complete classification of fixed points of the appearing dynamical system and analysis of their stability. It is shown that any trajectory tends to a fixed point. The model highlights that the final electoral outcome depends on the level of interaction in the society, besides the initial opinion of each individual, so that a strongly interconnected society can reverse the electoral outcome as compared to a society with looser exchange.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
