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Register a new userDegradation Analysis of Probabilistic Parallel Choice Systems
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Added by
Shrisha Rao
Publication date
2014
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Degradation analysis is used to analyze the useful lifetimes of systems, their failure rates, and various other system parameters like mean time to failure (MTTF), mean time between failures (MTBF), and the system failure rate (SFR). In many systems, certain possible parallel paths of execution that have greater chances of success are preferred over others. Thus we introduce here the concept of probabilistic parallel choice. We use binary and $n$-ary probabilistic choice operators in describing the selections of parallel paths. These binary and $n$-ary probabilistic choice operators are considered so as to represent the complete system (described as a series-parallel system) in terms of the probabilities of selection of parallel paths and their relevant parameters. Our approach allows us to derive new and generalized formulae for system parameters like MTTF, MTBF, and SFR. We use a generalized exponential distribution, allowing distinct installation times for individual components, and use this model to derive expressions for such system parameters.
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Binary code analysis is widely used to assess a programs correctness, performance, and provenance. Binary analysis applications often construct control flow graphs, analyze data flow, and use debugging information to understand how machine code relates to source lines, inlined functions, and data types. To date, binary analysis has been single-threaded, which is too slow for applications such as performance analysis and software forensics, where it is becoming common to analyze binaries that are gigabytes in size and in large batches that contain thousands of binaries. This paper describes our design and implementation for accelerating the task of constructing control flow graphs (CFGs) from binaries with multithreading. Existing research focuses on addressing challenging code constructs encountered during constructing CFGs, including functions sharing code, jump table analysis, non-returning functions, and tail calls. However, existing analyses do not consider the complex interactions between concurrent analysis of shared code, making it difficult to extend existing serial algorithms to be parallel. A systematic methodology to guide the design of parallel algorithms is essential. We abstract the task of constructing CFGs as repeated applications of several core CFG operations regarding to creating functions, basic blocks, and edges. We then derive properties among CFG operations, including operation dependency, commutativity, monotonicity. These operation properties guide our design of a new parallel analysis for constructing CFGs. We achieved as much as 25$times$ speedup for constructing CFGs on 64 hardware threads. Binary analysis applications are significantly accelerated with the new parallel analysis: we achieve 8$times$ for a performance analysis tool and 7$times$ for a software forensic tool with 16 hardware threads.
Consider a planner who has to decide whether or not to introduce a new policy to a certain local population. The planner has only limited knowledge of the policys causal impact on this population due to a lack of data but does have access to the publicized results of intervention studies performed for similar policies on different populations. How should the planner make use of and aggregate this existing evidence to make her policy decision? Building upon the paradigm of `patient-centered meta-analysis proposed by Manski (2020; Towards Credible Patient-Centered Meta-Analysis, Epidemiology), we formulate the planners problem as a statistical decision problem with a social welfare objective pertaining to the local population, and solve for an optimal aggregation rule under the minimax-regret criterion. We investigate the analytical properties, computational feasibility, and welfare regret performance of this rule. We also compare the minimax regret decision rule with plug-in decision rules based upon a hierarchical Bayes meta-regression or stylized mean-squared-error optimal prediction. We apply the minimax regret decision rule to two settings: whether to enact an active labor market policy given evidence from 14 randomized control trial studies; and whether to approve a drug (Remdesivir) for COVID-19 treatment using a meta-database of clinical trials.
In this paper we derive locally D-optimal designs for discrete choice experiments based on multinomial probit models. These models include several discrete explanatory variables as well as a quantitative one. The commonly used multinomial logit model assumes independent utilities for different choice options. Thus, D-optimal optimal designs for such multinomial logit models may comprise choice sets, e.g., consisting of alternatives which are identical in all discrete attributes but different in the quantitative variable. Obviously such designs are not appropriate for many empirical choice experiments. It will be shown that locally D-optimal designs for multinomial probit models supposing independent utilities consist of counterintuitive choice sets as well. However, locally D-optimal designs for multinomial probit models allowing for dependent utilities turn out to be reasonable for analyzing decisions using discrete choice studies.
Order statistics theory is applied in this paper to probabilistic robust control theory to compute the minimum sample size needed to come up with a reliable estimate of an uncertain quantity under continuity assumption of the related probability distribution. Also, the concept of distribution-free tolerance intervals is applied to estimate the range of an uncertain quantity and extract the information about its distribution. To overcome the limitations imposed by the continuity assumption in the existing order statistics theory, we have derived a cumulative distribution function of the order statistics without the continuity assumption and developed an inequality showing that this distribution has an upper bound which equals to the corresponding distribution when the continuity assumption is satisfied. By applying this inequality, we investigate the minimum computational effort needed to come up with an reliable estimate for the upper bound (or lower bound) and the range of a quantity. We also give conditions, which are much weaker than the absolute continuity assumption, for the existence of such minimum sample size. Furthermore, the issue of making tradeoff between performance level and risk is addressed and a guideline for making this kind of tradeoff is established. This guideline can be applied in general without continuity assumption.
We show a methodology for the computation of the probability of deadline miss for a periodic real-time task scheduled by a resource reservation algorithm. We propose a modelling technique for the system that reduces the computation of such a probability to that of the steady state probability of an infinite state Discrete Time Markov Chain with a periodic structure. This structure is exploited to develop an efficient numeric solution where different accuracy/computation time trade-offs can be obtained by operating on the granularity of the model. More importantly we offer a closed form conservative bound for the probability of a deadline miss. Our experiments reveal that the bound remains reasonably close to the experimental probability in one real-time application of practical interest. When this bound is used for the optimisation of the overall Quality of Service for a set of tasks sharing the CPU, it produces a good sub-optimal solution in a small amount of time.
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