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Register a new userFirefly Monte Carlo: Exact MCMC with Subsets of Data
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Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular and successful general-purpose tool for Bayesian inference. However, MCMC cannot be practically applied to large data sets because of the prohibitive cost of evaluating every likelihood term at every iteration. Here we present Firefly Monte Carlo (FlyMC) an auxiliary variable MCMC algorithm that only queries the likelihoods of a potentially small subset of the data at each iteration yet simulates from the exact posterior distribution, in contrast to recent proposals that are approximate even in the asymptotic limit. FlyMC is compatible with a wide variety of modern MCMC algorithms, and only requires a lower bound on the per-datum likelihood factors. In experiments, we find that FlyMC generates samples from the posterior more than an order of magnitude faster than regular MCMC, opening up MCMC methods to larger datasets than were previously considered feasible.
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Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized HMC with the St{o}rmer-Verlet or leapfrog integrator, and make two primary contributions. First, we provide a non-asymptotic upper bound on the mixing time of the Metropolized HMC with explicit choices of step-size and number of leapfrog steps. This bound gives a precise quantification of the faster convergence of Metropolized HMC relative to simpler MCMC algorithms such as the Metropolized random walk, or Metropolized Langevin algorithm. Second, we provide a general framework for sharpening mixing time bounds of Markov chains initialized at a substantial distance from the target distribution over continuous spaces. We apply this sharpening device to the Metropolized random walk and Langevin algorithms, thereby obtaining improved mixing time bounds from a non-warm initial distribution.
For many analytical problems the challenge is to handle huge amounts of available data. However, there are data science application areas where collecting information is difficult and costly, e.g., in the study of geological phenomena, rare diseases, faults in complex systems, insurance frauds, etc. In many such cases, generators of synthetic data with the same statistical and predictive properties as the actual data allow efficient simulations and development of tools and applications. In this work, we propose the incorporation of Monte Carlo Dropout method within Autoencoder (MCD-AE) and Variational Autoencoder (MCD-VAE) as efficient generators of synthetic data sets. As the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is one of the most popular generator techniques, we explore its similarities and differences to the proposed methods. We compare the generated data sets with the original data based on statistical properties, structural similarity, and predictive similarity. The results obtained show a strong similarity between the results of VAE, MCD-VAE and MCD-AE; however, the proposed methods are faster and can generate values similar to specific selected initial instances.
We introduce a dynamic generative model, Bayesian allocation model (BAM), which establishes explicit connections between nonnegative tensor factorization (NTF), graphical models of discrete probability distributions and their Bayesian extensions, and the topic models such as the latent Dirichlet allocation. BAM is based on a Poisson process, whose events are marked by using a Bayesian network, where the conditional probability tables of this network are then integrated out analytically. We show that the resulting marginal process turns out to be a Polya urn, an integer valued self-reinforcing process. This urn processes, which we name a Polya-Bayes process, obey certain conditional independence properties that provide further insight about the nature of NTF. These insights also let us develop space efficient simulation algorithms that respect the potential sparsity of data: we propose a class of sequential importance sampling algorithms for computing NTF and approximating their marginal likelihood, which would be useful for model selection. The resulting methods can also be viewed as a model scoring method for topic models and discrete Bayesian networks with hidden variables. The new algorithms have favourable properties in the sparse data regime when contrasted with variational algorithms that become more accurate when the total sum of the elements of the observed tensor goes to infinity. We illustrate the performance on several examples and numerically study the behaviour of the algorithms for various data regimes.
The classical Langevin Monte Carlo method looks for samples from a target distribution by descending the samples along the gradient of the target distribution. The method enjoys a fast convergence rate. However, the numerical cost is sometimes high because each iteration requires the computation of a gradient. One approach to eliminate the gradient computation is to employ the concept of ensemble. A large number of particles are evolved together so the neighboring particles provide gradient information to each other. In this article, we discuss two algorithms that integrate the ensemble feature into LMC and the associated properties. In particular, we find that if one directly surrogates the gradient using the ensemble approximation, the algorithm, termed Ensemble Langevin Monte Carlo, is unstable due to a high variance term. If the gradients are replaced by the ensemble approximations only in a constrained manner, to protect from the unstable points, the algorithm, termed Constrained Ensemble Langevin Monte Carlo, resembles the classical LMC up to an ensemble error but removes most of the gradient computation.
Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method. One drawback is that it requires the computation of the full gradient at each iteration, an expensive operation if the dimension of the problem is high. We propose a new sampling method: Random Coordinate LMC (RC-LMC). At each iteration, a single coordinate is randomly selected to be updated by a multiple of the partial derivative along this direction plus noise, and all other coordinates remain untouched. We investigate the total complexity of RC-LMC and compare it with the classical LMC for log-concave probability distributions. When the gradient of the log-density is Lipschitz, RC-LMC is less expensive than the classical LMC if the log-density is highly skewed for high dimensional problems, and when both the gradient and the Hessian of the log-density are Lipschitz, RC-LMC is always cheaper than the classical LMC, by a factor proportional to the square root of the problem dimension. In the latter case, our estimate of complexity is sharp with respect to the dimension.
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