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Register a new userGuaranteed Bounds for General Approximate Dynamic Programming
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In this paper, we will develop a systematic approach to deriving guaranteed bounds for approximate dynamic programming (ADP) schemes in optimal control problems. Our approach is inspired by our recent results on bounding the performance of greedy strategies in optimization of string-submodular functions over a finite horizon. The approach is to derive a string-submodular optimization problem, for which the optimal strategy is the optimal control solution and the greedy strategy is the ADP solution. Using this approach, we show that any ADP solution achieves a performance that is at least a factor of $beta$ of the performance of the optimal control solution, which satisfies Bellmans optimality principle. The factor $beta$ depends on the specific ADP scheme, as we will explicitly characterize. To illustrate the applicability of our bounding technique, we present examples of ADP schemes, including the popular rollout method.
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For years, there has been interest in approximation methods for solving dynamic programming problems, because of the inherent complexity in computing optimal solutions characterized by Bellmans principle of optimality. A wide range of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods now exists. It is of great interest to guarantee that the performance of an ADP scheme be at least some known fraction, say $beta$, of optimal. This paper introduces a general approach to bounding the performance of ADP methods, in this sense, in the stochastic setting. The approach is based on new results for bounding greedy solutions in string optimization problems, where one has to choose a string (ordered set) of actions to maximize an objective function. This bounding technique is inspired by submodularity theory, but submodularity is not required for establishing bounds. Instead, the bounding is based on quantifying certain notions of curvature of string functions; the smaller the curvatures the better the bound. The key insight is that any ADP scheme is a greedy scheme for some surrogate string objective function that coincides in its optimal solution and value with those of the original optimal control problem. The ADP scheme then yields to the bounding technique mentioned above, and the curvatures of the surrogate objective determine the value $beta$ of the bound. The surrogate objective and its curvatures depend on the specific ADP.
We present a novel linear program for the approximation of the dynamic programming cost-to-go function in high-dimensional stochastic control problems. LP approaches to approximate DP have typically relied on a natural `projection of a well studied linear program for exact dynamic programming. Such programs restrict attention to approximations that are lower bounds to the optimal cost-to-go function. Our program--the `smoothed approximate linear program--is distinct from such approaches and relaxes the restriction to lower bounding approximations in an appropriate fashion while remaining computationally tractable. Doing so appears to have several advantages: First, we demonstrate substantially superior bounds on the quality of approximation to the optimal cost-to-go function afforded by our approach. Second, experiments with our approach on a challenging problem (the game of Tetris) show that the approach outperforms the existing LP approach (which has previously been shown to be competitive with several ADP algorithms) by an order of magnitude.
We consider the revenue management problem of finding profit-maximising prices for delivery time slots in the context of attended home delivery. This multi-stage optimal control problem admits a dynamic programming formulation that is intractable for realistic problem sizes due to the so-called curse of dimensionality. Therefore, we study three approximate dynamic programming algorithms both from a control-theoretical perspective and in a parametric numerical case study. Our numerical analysis is based on real-world data, from which we generate multiple scenarios to stress-test the robustness of the pricing policies to errors in model parameter estimates. Our theoretical analysis and numerical benchmark tests show that one of these algorithms, namely gradient-bounded dynamic programming, dominates the others with respect to computation time and profit-generation capabilities of the delivery slot pricing policies that it generates. Finally, we show that uncertainty in the estimates of the model parameters further increases the profit-generation dominance of this approach.
In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of Guaranteed Annuity Options (GAOs) under the most generalised modelling framework where both interest and mortality rates are stochastic and correlated. Pricing these type of options in the correlated environment is a challenging task and no closed form solution exists in the literature. We employ the use of doubly stochastic stopping times to incorporate the randomness about the time of death and employ a suitable change of measure to facilitate the valuation of survival benefit, there by adapting the payoff of the GAO in terms of the payoff of a basket call option. We derive general price bounds for GAOs by utilizing a conditioning approach for the lower bound and arithmetic-geometric mean inequality for the upper bound. The theory is then applied to affine models to present some very interesting formulae for the bounds under the affine set up. Numerical examples are furnished and benchmarked against Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the price of a GAO for a variety of affine processes governing the evolution of mortality and the interest rate.
We are concerned with the linear-quadratic optimal stochastic control problem with random coefficients. Under suitable conditions, we prove that the value field $V(t,x,omega), (t,x,omega)in [0,T]times R^ntimes Omega$, is quadratic in $x$, and has the following form: $V(t,x)=langle K_tx, xrangle$ where $K$ is an essentially bounded nonnegative symmetric matrix-valued adapted processes. Using the dynamic programming principle (DPP), we prove that $K$ is a continuous semi-martingale of the form $$K_t=K_0+int_0^t , dk_s+sum_{i=1}^dint_0^tL_s^i, dW_s^i, quad tin [0,T]$$ with $k$ being a continuous process of bounded variation and $$Eleft[left(int_0^T|L_s|^2, dsright)^pright] <infty, quad forall pge 2; $$ and that $(K, L)$ with $L:=(L^1, cdots, L^d)$ is a solution to the associated backward stochastic Riccati equation (BSRE), whose generator is highly nonlinear in the unknown pair of processes. The uniqueness is also proved via a localized completion of squares in a self-contained manner for a general BSRE. The existence and uniqueness of adapted solution to a general BSRE was initially proposed by the French mathematician J. M. Bismut (1976, 1978). It had been solved by the author (2003) via the stochastic maximum principle with a viewpoint of stochastic flow for the associated stochastic Hamiltonian system. The present paper is its companion, and gives the {it second but more comprehensive} adapted solution to a general BSRE via the DDP. Further extensions to the jump-diffusion control system and to the general nonlinear control system are possible.
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