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Register a new userPredicting market instability: New dynamics between volume and volatility
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Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and volume interact, particularly when the levels of both are high. We find that the distribution of the volume-conditional volatility is well fit by a power-law function with an exponential cutoff. We find that the volume-conditional volatility distribution scales with volume, and collapses these distributions to a single curve. We exploit the characteristics of the volume-volatility scatter plot to find a strong correlation between logarithmic volume and a quantity we define as local maximum volatility (LMV), which indicates the largest volatility observed in a given range of trading volumes. This finding supports our empirical analysis showing that volume is an excellent predictor of the maximum value of volatility for both same-day and near-future time periods. We also use a joint conditional probability that includes both volatility and volume to demonstrate that invoking both allows us to better predict the largest next-day volatility than invoking either one alone.
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In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlyings return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility would indicate market inefficiency. Using minute-by-minute data on S&P 500 index options, we provide evidence regarding delayed and gradual movements in implied volatility after the arrival of return jumps. These movements are directed and persistent, especially in the case of negative return jumps. Our results are significant when the implied volatilities are extracted from at-the-money options and out-of-the-money puts, while the implied volatility obtained from out-of-the-money calls converges to its new level immediately rather than gradually. Thus, our analysis reveals that the implied volatility smile is adjusted to jumps in underlyings return asymmetrically. Finally, it would be possible to have statistical arbitrage in zero-transaction-cost option markets, but under actual option price spreads, our results do not imply abnormal option returns.
We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 until 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility $sigma(t)$ which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by $r(t)=sigma(t) omega(t)$ where the $r(t)$ are the daily returns of the market index and the $omega(t)$ are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The relation $r(t)=sigma(t) omega(t)$ alone is unable to give an operative definition of the index volatility, which remains unobservable. On the contrary, we show that using the whole information available in the market, the index volatility can be operatively defined and detected.
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This paper presents probability distributions for price and returns random processes for averaging time interval {Delta}. These probabilities determine properties of price and returns volatility. We define statistical moments for price and returns random processes as functions of the costs and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. These sets of statistical moments determine characteristic functionals for price and returns probability distributions. Volatilities are described by first two statistical moments. Second statistical moments are described by functions of second degree of the cost and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. We present price and returns volatilities as functions of number of trades and second degree costs and volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. These expressions support numerous results on correlations between returns volatility, number of trades and the volume of market transactions. Forecasting the price and returns volatilities depend on modeling the second degree of the costs and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval {Delta}. Second degree market trades impact second degree of macro variables and expectations. Description of the second degree market trades, macro variables and expectations doubles the complexity of the current macroeconomic and financial theory.
We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold $q$ for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval $tau$ and its mean $<tau>$. We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.
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