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Register a new userStochastic analysis of ocean wave states with and without rogue waves
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This work presents an analysis of ocean wave data including rogue waves. A stochastic approach based on the theory of Markov processes is applied. With this analysis we achieve a characterization of the scale dependent complexity of ocean waves by means of a Fokker-Planck equation, providing stochastic information of multi-scale processes. In particular we show evidence of Markov properties for increment processes, which means that a three point closure for the complexity of the wave structures seems to be valid. Furthermore we estimate the parameters of the Fokker-Planck equation by parameter-free data analysis. The resulting Fokker-Planck equations are verified by numerical reconstruction. This work presents a new approach where the coherent structure of rogue waves seems to be integrated into the fundamental statistics of complex wave states.
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As an example for complex systems with extreme events we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves. We present a statistical method of data analysis based on multi-point statistics which for the first time allows grasping extreme rogue wave events in a statistically highly satisfactory manner. The key to the success of the approach is mapping the complexity of multi-point data onto the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales for which we can show that a stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. With this stochastic description surrogate data sets can in turn be generated allowing to work out arbitrary statistical features of the complex sea state in general and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics.
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