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Register a new userCalibrated birth-death phylogenetic time-tree priors for Bayesian inference
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Here we introduce a general class of multiple calibration birth-death tree priors for use in Bayesian phylogenetic inference. All tree priors in this class separate ancestral node heights into a set of calibrated nodes and uncalibrated nodes such that the marginal distribution of the calibrated nodes is user-specified whereas the density ratio of the birth-death prior is retained for trees with equal values for the calibrated nodes. We describe two formulations, one in which the calibration information informs the prior on ranked tree topologies, through the (conditional) prior, and the other which factorizes the prior on divergence times and ranked topologies, thus allowing uniform, or any arbitrary prior distribution on ranked topologies. While the first of these formulations has some attractive properties the algorithm we present for computing its prior density is computationally intensive. On the other hand, the second formulation is always computationally efficient. We demonstrate the utility of the new class of multiple-calibration tree priors using both small simulations and a real-world analysis and compare the results to existing schemes. The two new calibrated tree priors described in this paper offer greater flexibility and control of prior specification in calibrated time-tree inference and divergence time dating, and will remove the need for indirect approaches to the assessment of the combined effect of calibration densities and tree process priors in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
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Phylogenetic tree inference using deep DNA sequencing is reshaping our understanding of rapidly evolving systems, such as the within-host battle between viruses and the immune system. Densely sampled phylogenetic trees can contain special features, including sampled ancestors in which we sequence a genotype along with its direct descendants, and polytomies in which multiple descendants arise simultaneously. These features are apparent after identifying zero-length branches in the tree. However, current maximum-likelihood based approaches are not capable of revealing such zero-length branches. In this paper, we find these zero-length branches by introducing adaptive-LASSO-type regularization estimators to phylogenetics, deriving their properties, and showing regularization to be a practically useful approach for phylogenetics.
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The dynamics of populations is frequently subject to intrinsic noise. At the same time unknown interaction networks or rate constants can present quenched uncertainty. Existing approaches often involve repeated sampling of the quenched disorder and then running the stochastic birth-death dynamics on these samples. In this paper we take a different view, and formulate an effective jump process, representative of the ensemble of quenched interactions as a whole. Using evolutionary games with random payoff matrices as an example, we develop an algorithm to simulate this process, and we discuss diffusion approximations in the limit of weak intrinsic noise.
Tree-based networks are a class of phylogenetic networks that attempt to formally capture what is meant by tree-like evolution. A given non-tree-based phylogenetic network, however, might appear to be very close to being tree-based, or very far. In this paper, we formalise the notion of proximity to tree-based for unrooted phylogenetic networks, with a range of proximity measures. These measures also provide characterisations of tree-based networks. One measure in particular, related to the nearest neighbour interchange operation, allows us to define the notion of tree-based rank. This provides a subclassification within the tree-based networks themselves, identifying those networks that are very tree-based. Finally, we prove results relating tree-based networks in the settings of rooted and unrooted phylogenetic networks, showing effectively that an unrooted network is tree-based if and only if it can be made a rooted tree-based network by rooting it and orienting the edges appropriately. This leads to a clarification of the contrasting decision problems for tree-based networks, which are polynomial in the rooted case but NP complete in the unrooted.
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