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Register a new userPredicting college basketball match outcomes using machine learning techniques: some results and lessons learned
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Most existing work on predicting NCAAB matches has been developed in a statistical context. Trusting the capabilities of ML techniques, particularly classification learners, to uncover the importance of features and learn their relationships, we evaluated a number of different paradigms on this task. In this paper, we summarize our work, pointing out that attributes seem to be more important than models, and that there seems to be an upper limit to predictive quality.
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Predicting the outcome of a chemical reaction using efficient computational models can be used to develop high-throughput screening techniques. This can significantly reduce the number of experiments needed to be performed in a huge search space, which saves time, effort and expense. Recently, machine learning methods have been bolstering conventional structure-activity relationships used to advance understanding of chemical reactions. We have developed a model to predict the products of catalytic reactions on the surface of oxygen-covered and bare gold using machine learning. Using experimental data, we developed a machine learning model that maps reactants to products, using a chemical space representation. This involves predicting a chemical space value for the products, and then matching this value to a molecular structure chosen from a database. The database was developed by applying a set of possible reaction outcomes using known reaction mechanisms. Our machine learning approach complements chemical intuition in predicting the outcome of several types of chemical reactions. In some cases, machine learning makes correct predictions where chemical intuition fails. We achieve up to 93% prediction accuracy for a small data set of less than two hundred reactions.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved considerably in the last few years. While applications of AI is now becoming more common in fields like retail and marketing, application of AI in solving problems related to developing countries is still an emerging topic. Specially, AI applications in resource-poor settings remains relatively nascent. There is a huge scope of AI being used in such settings. For example, researchers have started exploring AI applications to reduce poverty and deliver a broad range of critical public services. However, despite many promising use cases, there are many dataset related challenges that one has to overcome in such projects. These challenges often take the form of missing data, incorrectly collected data and improperly labeled variables, among other factors. As a result, we can often end up using data that is not representative of the problem we are trying to solve. In this case study, we explore the challenges of using such an open dataset from India, to predict an important health outcome. We highlight how the use of AI without proper understanding of reporting metrics can lead to erroneous conclusions.
This research focuses on predicting the demand for air taxi urban air mobility (UAM) services during different times of the day in various geographic regions of New York City using machine learning algorithms (MLAs). Several ride-related factors (such as month of the year, day of the week and time of the day) and weather-related variables (such as temperature, weather conditions and visibility) are used as predictors for four popular MLAs, namely, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and gradient boosting. Experimental results suggest gradient boosting to consistently provide higher prediction performance. Specific locations, certain time periods and weekdays consistently emerged as critical predictors.
It has long been recognized that academic success is a result of both cognitive and non-cognitive dimensions acting together. Consequently, any intelligent learning platform designed to improve learning outcomes (LOs) must provide actionable inputs to the learner in these dimensions. However, operationalizing such inputs in a production setting that is scalable is not trivial. We develop an Embibe Score Quotient model (ESQ) to predict test scores based on observed academic, behavioral and test-taking features of a student. ESQ can be used to predict the future scoring potential of a student as well as offer personalized learning nudges, both critical to improving LOs. Multiple machine learning models are evaluated for the prediction task. In order to provide meaningful feedback to the learner, individualized Shapley feature attributions for each feature are computed. Prediction intervals are obtained by applying non-parametric quantile regression, in an attempt to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions. We apply the above modelling strategy on a dataset consisting of more than a hundred million learner interactions on the Embibe learning platform. We observe that the Median Absolute Error between the observed and predicted scores is 4.58% across several user segments, and the correlation between predicted and observed responses is 0.93. Game-like what-if scenarios are played out to see the changes in LOs, on counterfactual examples. We briefly discuss how a rational agent can then apply an optimal policy to affect the learning outcomes by treating the above model like an Oracle.
Human Activity Recognition (HAR) is considered a valuable research topic in the last few decades. Different types of machine learning models are used for this purpose, and this is a part of analyzing human behavior through machines. It is not a trivial task to analyze the data from wearable sensors for complex and high dimensions. Nowadays, researchers mostly use smartphones or smart home sensors to capture these data. In our paper, we analyze these data using machine learning models to recognize human activities, which are now widely used for many purposes such as physical and mental health monitoring. We apply different machine learning models and compare performances. We use Logistic Regression (LR) as the benchmark model for its simplicity and excellent performance on a dataset, and to compare, we take Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Additionally, we select the best set of parameters for each model by grid search. We use the HAR dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository as a standard dataset to train and test the models. Throughout the analysis, we can see that the Support Vector Machine performed (average accuracy 96.33%) far better than the other methods. We also prove that the results are statistically significant by employing statistical significance test methods.
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