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Register a new userChaos and Unpredictability in Evolution
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The possibility of complicated dynamic behaviour driven by non-linear feedbacks in dynamical systems has revolutionized science in the latter part of the last century. Yet despite examples of complicated frequency dynamics, the possibility of long-term evolutionary chaos is rarely considered. The concept of survival of the fittest is central to much evolutionary thinking and embodies a perspective of evolution as a directional optimization process exhibiting simple, predictable dynamics. This perspective is adequate for simple scenarios, when frequency-independent selection acts on scalar phenotypes. However, in most organisms many phenotypic properties combine in complicated ways to determine ecological interactions, and hence frequency-dependent selection. Therefore, it is natural to consider models for the evolutionary dynamics generated by frequency-dependent selection acting simultaneously on many different phenotypes. Here we show that complicated, chaotic dynamics of long-term evolutionary trajectories in phenotype space is very common in a large class of such models when the dimension of phenotype space is large, and when there are epistatic interactions between the phenotypic components. Our results suggest that the perspective of evolution as a process with simple, predictable dynamics covers only a small fragment of long-term evolution. Our analysis may also be the first systematic study of the occurrence of chaos in multidimensional and generally dissipative systems as a function of the dimensionality of phase space.
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The tremendous popular success of Chaos Theory shares some common points with the not less fortunate Relativity: they both rely on a misunderstanding. Indeed, ironically , the scientific meaning of these terms for mathematicians and physicists is quite opposite to the one most people have in mind and are attracted by. One may suspect that part of the psychological roots of this seductive appeal relies in the fact that with these ambiguous names, together with some superficial clich{e}s or slogans immediately related to them (the butterfly effect or everything is relative), some have the more or less secret hope to find matter that would undermine two pillars of science, namely its ability to predict and to bring out a universal objectivity. Here I propose to focus on Chaos Theory and illustrate on several examples how, very much like Relativity, it strengthens the position it seems to contend with at first sight: the failure of predictability can be overcome and leads to precise, stable and even more universal predictions.
The processes and mechanisms underlying the origin and maintenance of biological diversity have long been of central importance in ecology and evolution. The competitive exclusion principle states that the number of coexisting species is limited by the number of resources, or by the species similarity in resource use. Natural systems such as the extreme diversity of unicellular life in the oceans provide counter examples. It is known that mathematical models incorporating population fluctuations can lead to violations of the exclusion principle. Here we use simple eco-evolutionary models to show that a certain type of population dynamics, boom-bust dynamics, can allow for the evolution of much larger amounts of diversity than would be expected with stable equilibrium dynamics. Boom-bust dynamics are characterized by long periods of almost exponential growth (boom) and a subsequent population crash due to competition (bust). When such ecological dynamics are incorporated into an evolutionary model that allows for adaptive diversification in continuous phenotype spaces, desynchronization of the boom-bust cycles of coexisting species can lead to the maintenance of high levels of diversity.
Previous research on nonlinear oscillator networks has shown that chaos synchronization is attainable for identical oscillators but deteriorates in the presence of parameter mismatches. Here, we identify regimes for which the opposite occurs and show that oscillator heterogeneity can synchronize chaos for conditions under which identical oscillators cannot. This effect is not limited to small mismatches and is observed for random oscillator heterogeneity on both homogeneous and heterogeneous network structures. The results are demonstrated experimentally using networks of Chuas oscillators and are further supported by numerical simulations and theoretical analysis. In particular, we propose a general mechanism based on heterogeneity-induced mode mixing that provides insights into the observed phenomenon. Since individual differences are ubiquitous and often unavoidable in real systems, it follows that such imperfections can be an unexpected source of synchronization stability.
The Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) plays an important role in the description of Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) at the mean-field level. The GPE belongs to the class of non-linear Schrodinger equations which are known to feature dynamical instability and collapse for attractive non-linear interactions. We show that the GPE with repulsive non-linear interactions typical for BECs features chaotic wave dynamics. We find positive Lyapunov exponents for BECs expanding in periodic and aperiodic smooth external potentials as well as disorder potentials. Our analysis demonstrates that wave chaos characterized by the exponential divergence of nearby initial wavefunctions is to be distinguished from the notion of non-integrability of non-linear wave equations. We discuss the implications of these observations for the limits of applicability of the GPE, the problem of Anderson localization, and the properties of the underlying many-body dynamics.
Mathematical disease modelling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen spreading among a population. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality of epidemics and has allowed the modelling community to focus on the complexity of other factors such as population structure and interventions. However, there is an increasing amount of evidence that the strain diversity of pathogens, and their interplay with the host immune system, can play a large role in shaping the dynamics of epidemics. Here, we introduce a disease model with an underlying genotype network to account for two important mechanisms. One, the disease can mutate along network pathways as it spreads in a host population. Two, the genotype network allows us to define a genetic distance across strains and therefore to model the transcendence of immunity often observed in real world pathogens. We study the emergence of epidemics in this model, through its epidemic phase transitions, and highlight the role of the genotype network in driving cyclicity of diseases, large scale fluctuations, sequential epidemic transitions, as well as localization around specific strains of the associated pathogen. More generally, our model illustrates the richness of behaviours that are possible even in well-mixed host populations once we consider strain diversity and go beyond the one disease equals one pathogen paradigm.
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