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Register a new userCross-Correlation of Photovoltaic Output Fluctuation in Power System Operation for Large-Scale Photovoltaic Integration
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Yuichi Ikeda
Publication date
2013
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We analyzed the cross-correlation of Photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross-correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross-correlations. Then operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using our unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The cost for grid integration of PV system was also estimated. Finally, validity of the concept of local production for local consumption of renewable energy and alternative policy implications were also discussed.
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We consider the problem of estimating the unobserved amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation and demand in a power distribution network starting from measurements of the aggregated power flow at the point of common coupling (PCC) and local global horizontal irradiance (GHI). The estimation principle relies on modeling the PV generation as a function of the measured GHI, enabling the identification of PV production patterns in the aggregated power flow measurements. Four estimation algorithms are proposed: the first assumes that variability in the aggregated PV generation is given by variations of PV generation, the next two use a model of the demand to improve estimation performance, and the fourth assumes that, in a certain frequency range, the aggregated power flow is dominated by PV generation dynamics. These algorithms leverage irradiance transposition models to explore several azimuth/tilt configurations and explain PV generation patterns from multiple plants with non-uniform installation characteristics. Their estimation performance is compared and validated with measurements from a real-life setup including 4 houses with rooftop PV installations and battery systems for PV self-consumption.
Due to the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) production in the generation mix, the knowledge of the PV generation capacity has become a key factor. In this work, we propose to compute the PV plant maximum power starting from the indirectly-estimated irradiance. Three estimators are compared in terms of i) ability to compute the PV plant maximum power, ii) bandwidth and iii) robustness against measurements noise. The approaches rely on measurements of the DC voltage, current, and cell temperature and on a model of the PV array. We show that the considered methods can accurately reconstruct the PV maximum generation even during curtailment periods, i.e. when the measured PV power is not representative of the maximum potential of the PV array. Performance evaluation is carried out by using a dedicated experimental setup on a 14.3 kWp rooftop PV installation. Results also proved that the analyzed methods can outperform pyranometer-based estimations, with a less complex sensing system. We show how the obtained PV maximum power values can be applied to train time series-based solar maximum power forecasting techniques. This is beneficial when the measured power values, commonly used as training, are not representative of the maximum PV potential.
High penetration levels of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation on an electrical distribution circuit may severely degrade power quality due to voltage sags and swells caused by rapidly varying PV generation during cloud transients coupled with the slow response of existing utility compensation and regulation equipment. Although not permitted under current standards for interconnection of distributed generation, fast-reacting, VAR-capable PV inverters may provide the necessary reactive power injection or consumption to maintain voltage regulation under difficult transient conditions. As side benefit, the control of reactive power injection at each PV inverter provides an opportunity and a new tool for distribution utilities to optimize the performance of distribution circuits, e.g. by minimizing thermal losses. We suggest a local control scheme that dispatches reactive power from each PV inverter based on local instantaneous measurements of the real and reactive components of the consumed power and the real power generated by the PVs. Using one adjustable parameter per circuit, we balance the requirements on power quality and desire to minimize thermal losses. Numerical analysis of two exemplary systems, with comparable total PV generation albeit a different spatial distribution, show how to adjust the optimization parameter depending on the goal. Overall, this local scheme shows excellent performance; its capable of guaranteeing acceptable power quality and achieving significant saving in thermal losses in various situations even when the renewable generation in excess of the circuit own load, i.e. feeding power back to the higher-level system.
Spintronics, which aims at exploiting the spin degree of freedom of carriers inside electronic devices, has a huge potential for quantum computation and dissipationless interconnects. Ideally, spin currents in spintronic devices should be powered by a spin voltage generator able to drive spins out of equilibrium and produce two spatially well-separated populations with opposite spin orientation. Such a generator should work at room temperature, be highly integrable with existing semiconductor technology, and work with neither ferromagnetic materials nor externally applied magnetic fields. We have matched these requirements by realizing the spintronic equivalent of a photovoltaic cell. While the latter spatially separates photoexcited electron and hole charges, our device exploits circularly polarized light to produce two spatially well-defined electron populations with opposite spin. This is achieved by modulating the phase and amplitude of the light wavefronts entering a semiconductor (germanium) with a patterned metal overlayer (platinum). This allows creating a light diffraction pattern with spatially-modulated chirality inside the semiconductor, which locally excites spin-polarized electrons thanks to electric dipole selection rules.
Predicting the short-term power output of a photovoltaic panel is an important task for the efficient management of smart grids. Short-term forecasting at the minute scale, also known as nowcasting, can benefit from sky images captured by regular cameras and installed close to the solar panel. However, estimating the weather conditions from these images---sun intensity, cloud appearance and movement, etc.---is a very challenging task that the community has yet to solve with traditional computer vision techniques. In this work, we propose to learn the relationship between sky appearance and the future photovoltaic power output using deep learning. We train several variants of convolutional neural networks which take historical photovoltaic power values and sky images as input and estimate photovoltaic power in a very short term future. In particular, we compare three different architectures based on: a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a convolutional neural network (CNN), and a long short term memory (LSTM) module. We evaluate our approach quantitatively on a dataset of photovoltaic power values and corresponding images gathered in Kyoto, Japan. Our experiments reveal that the MLP network, already used similarly in previous work, achieves an RMSE skill score of 7% over the commonly-used persistence baseline on the 1-minute future photovoltaic power prediction task. Our CNN-based network improves upon this with a 12% skill score. In contrast, our LSTM-based model, which can learn the temporal dependencies in the data, achieves a 21% RMSE skill score, thus outperforming all other approaches.
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