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Register a new userGroup performance is maximized by hierarchical competence distribution
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Groups of people or even robots often face problems they need to solve together. Examples include collectively searching for resources, choosing when and where to invest time and effort, and many more. Although a hierarchical ordering of the relevance of the group members inputs during collective decision making is abundant, a quantitative demonstration of its origin and advantages using a generic approach has not been described yet. Here we introduce a family of models based on the most general features of group decision making to show that the optimal distribution of competences is a highly skewed function with a structured fat tail. Our results have been obtained by optimizing the groups compositions through identifying the best performing distributions for both the competences and for the members flexibilities/pliancies. Potential applications include choosing the best composition for a group intended to solve a given task.
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We model the hierarchical evolution of an organized criminal network via antagonistic recruitment and pursuit processes. Within the recruitment phase, a criminal kingpin enlists new members into the network, who in turn seek out other affiliates. New recruits are linked to established criminals according to a probability distribution that depends on the current network structure. At the same time, law enforcement agents attempt to dismantle the growing organization using pursuit strategies that initiate on the lower level nodes and that unfold as self-avoiding random walks. The global details of the organization are unknown to law enforcement, who must explore the hierarchy node by node. We halt the pursuit when certain local criteria of the network are uncovered, encoding if and when an arrest is made; the criminal network is assumed to be eradicated if the kingpin is arrested. We first analyze recruitment and study the large scale properties of the growing network; later we add pursuit and use numerical simulations to study the eradication probability in the case of three pursuit strategies, the time to first eradication and related costs. Within the context of this model, we find that eradication becomes increasingly costly as the network increases in size and that the optimal way of arresting the kingpin is to intervene at the early stages of network formation. We discuss our results in the context of dark network disruption and their implications on possible law enforcement strategies.
In many real network systems, nodes usually cooperate with each other and form groups, in order to enhance their robustness to risks. This motivates us to study a new type of percolation, group percolation, in interdependent networks under attacks. In this model, nodes belonging to the same group survive or fail together. We develop a theoretical framework for this novel group percolation and find that the formation of groups can improve the resilience of interdependent networks significantly. However, the percolation transition is always of first order, regardless of the distribution of group sizes. As an application, we map the interdependent networks with inter-similarity structures, which attract many attentions very recently, onto the group percolation and confirm the non-existence of continuous phase transitions.
The voter model has been studied extensively as a paradigmatic opinion dynamics model. However, its ability for modeling real opinion dynamics has not been addressed. We introduce a noisy voter model (accounting for social influence) with agents recurrent mobility (as a proxy for social context), where the spatial and population diversity are taken as inputs to the model. We show that the dynamics can be described as a noisy diffusive process that contains the proper anysotropic coupling topology given by population and mobility heterogeneity. The model captures statistical features of the US presidential elections as the stationary vote-share fluctuations across counties, and the long-range spatial correlations that decay logarithmically with the distance. Furthermore, it recovers the behavior of these properties when a real-space renormalization is performed by coarse-graining the geographical scale from county level through congressional districts and up to states. Finally, we analyze the role of the mobility range and the randomness in decision making which are consistent with the empirical observations.
We quantify a social organizations potentiality, that is its ability to attain different configurations. The organization is represented as a network in which nodes correspond to individuals and (multi-)edges to their multiple interactions. Attainable configurations are treated as realizations from a network ensemble. To encode interaction preferences between individuals, we choose the generalized hypergeometric ensemble of random graphs, which is described by a closed-form probability distribution. From this distribution we calculate Shannon entropy as a measure of potentiality. This allows us to compare different organizations as well different stages in the development of a given organization. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated using data from 3 empirical and 2 synthetic systems.
We study the stability of two coexisting languages (Catalan and Spanish) in Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain), a key European region in political and economic terms. Our analysis relies on recent, abundant empirical data that is studied within an analytic model of population dynamics. This model contemplates the possibilities of long-term language coexistence or extinction. We establish that the most likely scenario is a sustained coexistence. The data needs to be interpreted under different circumstances, some of them leading to the asymptotic extinction of one of the languages involved. We delimit the cases in which this can happen. Asymptotic behavior is often unrealistic as a predictor for complex social systems, hence we make an attempt at forecasting trends of speakers towards $2030$. These also suggest sustained coexistence between both tongues, but some counterintuitive dynamics are unveiled for extreme cases in which Catalan would be likely to lose an important fraction of speakers. As an intermediate step, model parameters are obtained that convey relevant information about the prestige and interlinguistic similarity of the tongues as perceived by the population. This is the first time that these parameters are quantified rigorously for this couple of languages. Remarkably, Spanish is found to have a larger prestige specially in areas which historically had larger communities of Catalan monolingual speakers. Limited, spatially-segregated data allows us to examine more fine grained dynamics, thus better addressing the likely coexistence or extinction. Variation of the model parameters across regions are informative about how the two languages are perceived in more urban or rural environments.
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