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Register a new userUp to four planets around the M dwarf GJ 163. Sensitivity of Bayesian planet detection criteria to prior choice
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Exoplanet Doppler surveys are currently the most efficient means to detect low-mass companions to nearby stars. Among these stars, the light M dwarfs provide the highest sensitivity to detect low-mass exoplanet candidates. Evidence is accumulating that a substantial fraction of these low-mass planets are found in high-multiplicity planetary systems. GJ 163 is a nearby inactive M dwarf with abundant public observations obtained using the HARPS spectrograph. We obtain and analyse radial velocities from the HARPS public spectra of GJ 163 and investigate the presence of a planetary companions orbiting it. The number of planet candidates detected might depend on some prior assumptions. Since the impact of prior choice has not been investigated throughly previously, we study the effects of different prior densities on the detectability of planet candidates around GJ 163. We use Bayesian tools, i.e. posterior samplings and model comparisons, when analysing the GJ 163 velocities. We consider models accounting for the possible correlations of subsequent measurements. We also search for activity-related counterparts of the signals we observe and test the dynamical stability of the planetary systems corresponding to our solutions using direct numerical integrations of the orbits. We find that there are at least three planet candidates orbiting GJ 163. The existence of a fourth planet is supported by the data but the evidence in favor of the corresponding model is not yet conclusive. The second innermost planet candidate in the system with an orbital period of 25.6 days and a minimum mass of 8.7 Me is inside the liquid-water habitable zone of the star.
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The four-planet system around GJ 581 has received attention because it has been claimed that there are possibly two additional low-mass companions as well - one of them being a planet in the middle of the stellar habitable zone. We re-analyse the available HARPS and HIRES Doppler data in an attempt to determine the false positive rate of our Bayesian data analysis techniques and to count the number of Keplerian signals in the GJ 581 data. We apply the common Lomb-Scargle periodograms and posterior sampling techniques in the Bayesian framework to estimate the number of signals in the radial velocities. We also analyse the HARPS velocities sequentially after each full observing period to compare the sensitivities and false positive rates of the two signal detection techniques. By relaxing the assumption that the radial velocity noise is white, we also demonstrate the consequences that noise correlations have on the obtained results and the significances of the signals. According to our analyses, the number of Keplerian signals favoured by the publicly available HARPS and HIRES radial velocity data of GJ 581 is four. This result relies on the sensitivity of the Bayesian statistical analysis techniques but also depends on the assumed noise model. We also show that the radial velocity noise is actually not white and that this feature has to be accounted for when analysing radial velocities in a search for low-amplitude signals corresponding to low-mass planets. ...
Context. Low mass stars are currently the best targets for searches for rocky planets in the habitable zone of their host star. Over the last 13 years, precise radial velocities measured with the HARPS spectrograph have identified over a dozen super-Earths and Earth-mass planets (msin i<10Mearth ) around M dwarfs, with a well understood selection function. This well defined sample informs on their frequency of occurrence and on the distribution of their orbital parameters, and therefore already constrains our understanding of planetary formation. The subset of these low-mass planets that were found within the habitable zone of their host star also provide prized targets for future atmospheric biomarkers searches. Aims. We are working to extend this planetary sample to lower masses and longer periods through dense and long-term monitoring of the radial velocity of a small M dwarf sample. Methods. We obtained large numbers of HARPS spectra for the M dwarfs GJ 3138, GJ 3323, GJ 273, GJ 628 and GJ 3293, from which we derived radial velocities (RVs) and spectroscopic activity indicators. We searched them for variabilities, periodicities, Keplerian modulations and correlations, and attribute the radial-velocity variations to combinations of planetary companions and stellar activity. Results. We detect 12 planets, of which 9 are new with masses ranging from 1.17 to 10.5 Mearth . Those planets have relatively short orbital periods (P<40 d), except two of them with periods of 217.6 and 257.8 days. Among these systems, GJ 273 harbor two planets with masses close to the one of the Earth. With a distance of 3.8 parsec only, GJ 273 is the second nearest known planetary system - after Proxima Centauri - with a planet orbiting the circumstellar habitable zone.
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